13e SESSION DU COMITÉ CONSULTATIF KARACHI 4–15 NOVEMBRE 1957

Abstract

Event-based methods are used in flood estimation to obtain the entire flood hydrograph. Previously, such methods adopted in the UK have relied on pre-determined values of the input variables (e.g. rainfall and antecedent conditions) to a rainfall–runoff model, which is expected to result in an output flood of a particular return period. In contrast, this paper presents a method that allows all the input variables to take on values across the full range of their individual distributions. These values are then brought together in all possible combinations as input to an event-based rainfall–runoff model in a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Further, this simulation strategy produces a long string of events (on average 10 per year), where dependencies from one event to the next, as well as between different variables within a single event, are accounted for. Frequency analysis is then applied to the annual maximum peak flows and flow volumes.

Citation Svensson, C., Kjeldsen, T.R., and Jones, D.A., 2013. Flood frequency estimation using a joint probability approach within a Monte Carlo framework. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–20.     

多失效模式下基于区间非概率的岩质隧道稳定可靠度分析

对于岩质隧道工程的稳定可靠度分析,一方面由于岩体参数的统计数据获取困难使得概率可靠度方法难以适用,另一方面其工程稳定与多种失效模式密切相关,须考虑隧道结构体系的可靠度问题。首先,基于区间理论,通过区间变量形式表征不确定性参数;然后,针对岩质隧道工程中多种失效模式并存的情况,引入结构体系可靠度理念,建立基于区间非概率的岩质隧道结构体系可靠度指标计算及其稳定性评价方法;在此基础上,通过工程实例验证了该方法的合理性;最后,定义不确定性参数的波动幅度,进一步分析各失效模式中不同参数对相应可靠度指标以及结构体系可靠度指标的影响。分析结果表明,各失效模式相应的非概率可靠度指标均随区间变量范围的增大而降低,且同一参数在不同失效模式中表现出不同的影响;另外,不确定性参数的变化还将导致影响岩质隧道结构体系稳定的主要失效模式发生相应的变化。     

罗氏沼虾(Macrobrachium rosenbergii)幼体新暴发病病原阴沟肠杆菌的分离鉴定

2010 年, 浙江湖州部分罗氏沼虾(Macrobrachium rosenbergii)育苗场在幼体培育阶段, 暴发 了幼体大规模发病死亡的新病害。从2 个育苗场6 个发病育苗池的发病幼体匀浆液中分离得到6 株 优势生长菌株(编号为NTH01、NTH02、NTH03、316D、316X、316C), 菌落形态较为一致。取代表 菌株NTH01, 以浸泡方式进行人工回感, 结果菌株NTH01 能够导致幼体发病死亡, 且症状与生产表 现一致。经形态学观察、生理生化鉴定、16S rRNA 与gyr B 基因序列系统发育关系构建, 鉴定菌株 NTH01 为阴沟肠杆菌(Enterobacter cloacae).以阴沟肠杆菌omp A 基因片段为靶序列, 建立了PCR 检测方法, 对另外5 株优势菌进行检测, 结果该5 株菌都是阴沟肠杆菌。2011 年, 对4 个发病育苗场 幼体与亲虾进行检测, 结果发病幼体中分离的优势菌检测呈阳性, 亲虾肝胰腺与肠道组织检测到该 菌存在, 但亲虾不表现病症。对30 种抗生素的药敏试验结果表明, 菌株NTH01 对恩诺沙星、氧氟 沙星、庆大霉素等6 种抗生素敏感, 对发病幼体进行针对性用药, 效果明显。本试验结果表明, 阴沟 肠杆菌是导致罗氏沼虾育苗期间幼体大规模发病死亡的致病菌。     

AltiKa Radiometer: Instrument Description and In–Flight Performance

On 25 February 2013, the Satellite for Argos and AltiKa (SARAL) was launched from the Indian Sriharikota launch site. The AltiKa payload consisted of an altimeter and a radiometer. This paper describes the AltiKa radiometer. This instrument has been studied for several years by CNES, TAS-F, ASTRIUM-F and a set of science laboratories, and AltiKa is the first compact instrument embedding simultaneously the altimeter and radiometer functions. AltiKa radiometer is a dual frequency instrument working in K (23.8 GHz) and Ka band (37 GHz), it is based on the total power principle, with direct detection receivers. On-ground acceptance tests exhibited a very high level of performance: less than 0.2 dB has been estimated for both sensitivity and absolute accuracy in both frequencies. This paper focuses on the in-flight performances that have been observed since the launch. All the instrument observable characterizations are nominal, and in-flight sensitivity has been estimated lower than 0.2 K.     

Geomorphic impact and system recovery following an extreme flood in an upland stream: Thinhope Burn, northern England, UK

Quantitative assessments of the impacts of extreme floods on channel morphology are rare. Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS surveys of a 500-m reach of the Thinhope Burn, an upland gravel-bed stream in the UK, taken in 2003 and 2004 permitted an assessment of geomorphic work whilst the channel was at steady-state. A large flood that occurred on 17 July 2007 resulted in a catastrophic impact to the Thinhope Burn valley floor. The reach was re-surveyed after the event in 2007, and again in 2008 and in 2011. Digital elevation models were produced from the survey data, which allowed the spatial patterns of erosion and deposition and volumetric changes between surveys to be established. A total of 5202 m³ of deposition and 2125 m³ of erosion was recorded in the reach following the flood event. Field walking of the catchment and comparison of aerial photographs for 2003 and 2007 suggested that most of the material mobilised had originated from existing sediment held in terraces and paleoberms on the valley floor. Although slope failures were evident, including peat slides in the headwaters, delivery of sediment from coupling zones to the channel was thought to play a secondary role in the geomorphic response shown by the channel. Similarly, large volumes of erosion and deposition were found after resurveys in 2008 and 2011, suggesting that the system was still in its relaxation phase. The results obtained in this investigation coupled with historical information on the flood history of Thinhope Burn dating back to 1766 suggested that rare large floods are the geomorphically effective flows in the catchment.     

1960-2007年中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化(英文)

Potential evapotranspiration (E0), as an estimate of the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, has been widely studied in the fields of irrigation management, crop water demand and predictions in ungauged basins (PUBs). Analysis of the sensitivity of E0 to meteorological factors is a basic research on the impact of climate change on water resources, and also is important to the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. This paper dealt with sensitivity of E0 over China, which was divided into ten drainage systems, including Songhua River basin, Liaohe River basin, Haihe River basin, Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin, Pearl River basin, Huaihe River drainage system, Southeast river drainage system, Northwest river drainage system and Southwest river drainage system. In addition, the calculation method of global radiation in Penman-Monteith formula was improved by optimization, and the sensitivities of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration to the daily maximum temperature (STmax), daily minimum temperature (STmin), wind speed (SU2), global radiation (SRs) and vapor pressure (SVP) were calculated and analyzed based on the long-term meteorological data from 653 meteorological stations in China during the period 1960-2007. Results show that: (1) the correlation coefficient between E0 and pan evaporation increased from 0.61 to 0.75. E0 had the decline trends in eight of ten drainage systems in China, which indicates that "pan evaporation paradox" commonly exists in China from 1960 to 2007. (2) Spatially, Tmax was the most sensitive factor in Haihe River basin, Yellow River basin, Huaihe River drainage system, Yangtze River basin, Pearl River basin and Southeast river drainage system, and VP was the most sensitive factor in Songhua River Basin, Liaohe River basin, Northwest river drainage system while Rs was the most sensitive factor in Southwest river drainage system. For the nation-wide average, the most sensitive factor was VP, followed by Tmax, Rs, U2 and Tmin. In addition, the changes in sensitivity coefficients had a certain correlation with elevation. (3) Temporally, the maximum values of STmax and SRs occurred in July, while the maximum values of STmin, SVP and SU2 occurred in January. Moreover, trend analysis indicates that STmax had decline trends, while STmin, SU2, SRs and SVP had increasing trends.     

Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change

The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose amplitude is more than those of the surrounding oceans. Using idealised GCM experiments with perturbed SSTs, we show that the land/sea contrast in equilibrium simulations is associated with local feedbacks and the hydrological cycle over land, rather than with externally imposed radiative forcing. This mechanism also explains a large component of the land/sea contrast in transient simulations as well. We propose a conceptual model with three elements: (1) there is a spatially variable level in the lower troposphere at which temperature change is the same over land and sea; (2) the dependence of lapse rate on moisture and temperature causes different changes in lapse rate upon warming over land and sea, and hence a surface land/sea temperature contrast; (3) moisture convergence over land predominantly takes place at levels significantly colder than the surface; wherever moisture supply over land is limited, the increase of evaporation over land upon warming is limited, reducing the relative humidity in the boundary layer over land, and hence also enhancing the land/sea contrast. The non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship of saturation specific humidity to temperature is critical in (2) and (3). We examine the sensitivity of the land/sea contrast to model representations of different physical processes using a large ensemble of climate model integrations with perturbed parameters, and find that it is most sensitive to representation of large-scale cloud and stomatal closure. We discuss our results in the context of high-resolution and Earth-system modelling of climate change.     

NUMERICAL MODELING STUDY OF EFFECTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON ENSO

In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982–1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.     

Impact of Different Guidances on Sensitive Areas of Targeting Observations Based on the CNOP Method

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs) obtained by a fast algorithm are applied to determining the sensitive area for the targeting observation of Typhoon Matsa in 2005 using an operational regional prediction model-the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES).Through a series of sensitivity experiments,several issues on targeting strategy design are discussed,including the effectivity of different guidances to determine the sensitive area(or targeting area) and the impa...