Sensitivity of soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling and the relation between effective,laboratory and in situ estimates

Simulation of soil moisture content requires effective soil hydraulic parameters that are valid at the modelling scale. This study investigates how these parameters can be estimated by inverse modelling using soil moisture measurements at 25 locations at three different depths (at the surface, at 30 and 60 cm depth) on an 80 by 20 m hillslope. The study presents two global sensitivity analyses to investigate the sensitivity in simulated soil moisture content of the different hydraulic parameters used in a one‐dimensional unsaturated zone model based on Richards' equation. For estimation of the effective parameters the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is applied. These estimated parameters are compared to their measured laboratory and in situ equivalents. Soil hydraulic functions were estimated in the laboratory on 100 cm³ undisturbed soil cores collected at 115 locations situated in two horizons in three profile pits along the hillslope. Furthermore, in situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity was estimated at 120 locations using single‐ring pressure infiltrometer measurements. The sensitivity analysis of 13 soil physical parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s), saturated moisture content (θ_s), residual moisture content (θ_r), inverse of the air‐entry value (α), van Genuchten shape parameter (n), Averjanov shape parameter (N) for both horizons, and depth (d) from surface to B horizon) in a two‐layer single column model showed that the parameter N is the least sensitive parameter. K_s of both horizons, θ_s of the A horizon and d were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Distributions over all locations of the effective parameters and the distributions of the estimated soil physical parameters from the undisturbed soil samples and the single‐ring pressure infiltrometer estimates were found significantly different at a 5% level for all parameters except for α of the A horizon and K_s and θ_s of the B horizon. Different reasons are discussed to explain these large differences. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于灵敏度分析的海洋油气资源BP神经网络预测模型的优化

作者针对BP神经网络结构设计中存在的问题,提出利用灵敏度分析方法对BP神经网络预测模型进行优化。通过BP算法与参数灵敏度分析的结合,寻找网络输入属性与输出属性之间的影响因子;在保证精度的前提下优选网络输入属性,简化网络结构,以增强网络的泛化能力,减少人为主观因素对网络设计的影响。最后以海洋油气资源预测为例,结合实测资料建立BP神经网络预测模型并进行了优化及预测精度评价,表明优化后的模型既能有效提高油气资源预测结果的稳定性,又不损失预测精度。     

6600 years of earthquake record in the Julian Alps (Lake Bohinj,Slovenia)

Sequences of lake sediments often form long and continuous records that may be sensitive recorders of seismic shaking. A multi‐proxy analysis of Lake Bohinj sediments associated with a well‐constrained chronology was conducted to reconstruct Holocene seismic activity in the Julian Alps (Slovenia). A seismic reflection survey and sedimentological analyses identified 29 homogenite‐type deposits related to mass‐wasting deposits. The most recent homogenites can be linked to historical regional earthquakes (i.e. 1348 ad , 1511 ad and 1690 ad ) with strong epicentral intensity [greater than ‘damaging’ (VIII ) on the Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik scale]. The correlation between the historical earthquake data set and the homogenites identified in a core isolated from local stream inputs, allows interpretation of all similar deposits as earthquake related. This work extends the earthquake chronicle of the last 6600 years in this area with a total of 29 events recorded. The early Holocene sedimentary record is disturbed by a seismic event (6617 ± 94 cal yr bp ) that reworked previously deposited sediment and led to a thick sediment deposit identified in the seismic survey. The period between 3500 cal yr bp and 2000 cal yr bp is characterized by a major destabilization in the watershed by human activities that led to increases in erosion and sedimentation rates. This change increased the lake's sensitivity to recording an earthquake (earthquake‐sensitivity threshold index) with the occurrence of 72 turbidite‐type deposits over this period. The high turbidite frequency identified could be the consequence of this change in lake earthquake sensitivity and thus these turbidites could be triggered by earthquake shaking, as other origins are discarded. This study illustrates why it is not acceptable to propose a return period for seismic activity recorded in lake sediment if the sedimentation rate varies significantly.     

A geometric-based approach for road matching on multi-scale datasets using a genetic algorithm

Object matching is used in various applications including conflation, data quality assessment, updating, and multi-scale analysis. The objective of matching is to identify objects referring to the same entity. This article aims to present an optimization-based linear object-matching approach in multi-scale, multi-source datasets. By taking into account geometric criteria, the proposed approach uses real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA) and sensitivity analysis to identify corresponding objects. Moreover, in this approach, any initial dependency on empirical parameters such as buffer distance, threshold of spatial similarity degree, and weights of criteria is eliminated and, instead, the optimal values for these parameters are calculated for each dataset. Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and authoritative data with different scales and sources were used to assess the efficiency of the proposed approach. According to the results, in addition to an efficient performance in various datasets, the proposed approach was able to appropriately identify the corresponding objects in these datasets by achieving higher F-Score.     

基于F-MCDM的冰川旅游游客满意度综合评价及敏感性分析

游客满意度是衡量旅游地竞争力的关键因素之一,已受到众多旅游研究者的关注。在其热点研究中,有关冰川旅游游客满意度及不同游客属性间满意度差异的研究鲜见。选取达古冰川与海螺沟冰川为研究区,通过对游客属性细分,运用模糊多准则决策法（F-MCDM）及引入需求弹性理论对冰川旅游游客满意度进行了综合评价和敏感性分析,探讨了提升冰川旅游游客满意度的对策建议。结果表明：达古冰川游客实际满意度总体高于海螺沟冰川,两地均以管理与服务的满意度最高,消费状况与交通的满意度最低。就游客属性的相对满意度而言,两地均呈现男性满意度高于女性,高消费游客满意度高于低消费游客,高忠诚度游客满意度高于低忠诚度游客;两地相对满意度的差异表现在年龄、受教育程度、客源地和到访次数方面。相较于达古冰川,海螺沟冰川满意度敏感性更高,同等改进力度下游客满意度的提高更为明显高效,就两地满意度敏感性最高的景观特色而言,达古冰川1%的改善将提升游客满意度0.30%,而海螺沟冰川可提升0.45%;对于不同游客属性的满意度敏感性,两地均以不愿推荐、不愿重游和未达到期望的游客最高。最后依据满意度敏感性分析结果,为两地冰川旅游发展提出了关键属性改进、营销策略创新和旅游产品开发等针对性建议。     

利用滩坝砂体规模研究古风力的定量恢复*

古风力是一项重要的古气候指标,其定量恢复是一个难题。风作用于水体产生的波浪大小间接地反映了风力,能够为古风力的恢复提供思路。发育于破浪带和冲浪回流带的破浪沙坝、沿岸沙坝分别记录了破浪和冲浪过程,作者分别介绍利用古湖泊中发育的破浪沙坝和沿岸沙坝进行古波况和古风力恢复的原理和操作流程。(1)根据破浪沙坝的几何形态,可以将其厚度与破浪水深建立函数关系,而破浪水深又由破浪波高决定,因此破浪沙坝厚度可以恢复破浪波高,据此可以进一步根据波浪统计关系恢复有效波高、根据风浪关系恢复风力。此方法依托以下3个参数: 单期次的破浪沙坝厚度、破浪沙坝的基座坡角、古风程。(2)沿岸沙坝厚度近似记录了冲浪的极限高度,后者受控于有效波高,据此也可以恢复有效波高和风力。此方法依托以下5个参数: 单期次的沿岸沙坝厚度、古(平均)水深、古风程、古风向相对于岸线的入射角、组成沿岸沙坝的沉积物粒度。上述2种方法综合性较强,涉及古风向、古地形坡度、风程或盆地直径、古水深等参数的恢复,需要综合运用古地貌恢复、去压实校正、古岸线识别、古水深恢复等技术,并需要结合波浪理论。古湖泊滨岸带地层中保存有大量的滩坝沉积,利用其恢复古波况和古风况具有一定的应用前景,能够有助于更详细地重建沉积盆地的古地理背景。     

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

4种蒸发波导模型的对比与分析

蒸发波导模型常用来计算海上蒸发波导高度。为了认识当前不同蒸发波导模型之间的差异和方法,本文选取了目前使用广泛的4种蒸发波导模型(即P-J模型、Babin模型、NPS模型和伪折射率模型)进行对比和分析。本文首先探讨了在理想情况下它们对气象要素的敏感性,随后并利用我国南海近海大气层观测试验数据对比了这4种模型的蒸发波导高度计算结果。分析表明:相对湿度、风速和气—海温差的变化对4种模型的计算都有着较大的影响,特别是在不稳定层结状况下,4种模型计算得到的蒸发波导高度都随着相对湿度的增大而降低、随着风速的增大而增高。Babin模型和NPS模型计算的波导高度较为一致,伪折射率模型与前两种模型的计算结果存在差异,而P-J模型与其他3种模型存在较明显的偏差。基于南海气象数据的计算结果表明,不同蒸发波导模型在该海域蒸发波导的模拟结果略有不同,但4种模型计算得到的波导高度日变化变化趋势较为一致,波导高度极低值常出现在早晨,而极高值常出现在傍晚。     

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.     

Applications of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to the study of the stability and sensitivity of the Jovian atmosphere

A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model is used to study the stability and sensitivity of motions on smallscale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and linear singular vectors (LSVs) are both obtained numerically and compared in this paper. The results show that CNOPs can capture the nonlinear characteristics of motions in small-scale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere and show great difference from LSVs under the condition that the initial constraint condition is large or the optimization time is not very short or both. Besides, in some basic states, local CNOPs are found. The pattern of LSV is more similar to local CNOP than global CNOP in some cases. The elementary application of the method of CNOP to the Jovian atmosphere helps us to explore the stability of variousscale motions of Jupiter’s atmosphere and to compare the stability of motions in Jupiter’s atmosphere and Earth’s atmosphere further.