Exploring the performance of spatio-temporal assimilation in an urban cellular automata model

Urban cellular automata (CA) models propagate and accumulate errors during the modeling process due to the model structure or stochastic processes involved. It is feasible to assimilate real-time observations into an urban CA model to reduce model uncertainties. However, the assimilation performance is sensitive to the spatio-temporal units in the assimilation algorithm, that is, spatial block size and window length (temporal interval). In this study, we coupled an assimilation model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and a Logistic-CA model to simulate the urban dynamic in Beijing over a period of two decades. Our results indicate that the coupled EnKF-CA model outperforms the CA-alone counterpart by about 10% in terms of the figure of merit, which reflects the agreement of modeled pixels. We also find that the assimilation performance using a finer block (1 km) is better than that using a coarser block (5 km and 10 km) because of the better depiction of spatial heterogeneity using a finer block. Moreover, the improvement of intermediate outputs using the coupled EnKF-CA model is effective for a certain period (e.g. 5 years). This implies that a high-frequency assimilation may not significantly improve the model performance. The sensitivity analyses of spatio-temporal assimilation in the EnKF-CA model provide a better understanding of the assimilation mechanism that couples with land-use change models.     

A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE EFFECT ON CHINESE REGIONAL CLIMATE DUE TO SEASONAL VARIATION OF LAND SURFACE PARAMETERS(PART I)

Sensitivity experiment is an important method to study the effect on regional climate due toseasonal variation of land surface parameters.Using China Regional Climate Model(CRCM)nested in CCM1.we first simulate Chinese regional climate,then two numerical sensitivityexperiments on the effect of vegetation and roughness length are made.The results show that:(1)If the vegetation is replaced with the monthly data of 1997.precipitation and land-surfacetemperature are both changed clearly,precipitation decreases and land surface temperatureincreases,but there is no regional correspondence between these changes.And the results aremuch better than the results when climate average vegetation was used in the CRCM.(2)If theroughness length is replaced with the monthly data of 1997,there is significant change on landsurface temperature,and there is very good regional correspondence between these changes.Butthe effect on precipitation is very small.     

Estimated population mixing by country and risk cohort for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe

 This paper applies a compartmental epidemic model to estimating the mixing relations that support the transfer of HIV infection between risk populations within the countries of Western Europe. To this end, a space-time epidemic model with compartments representing countries with populations specified to be at high (gay men and intravenous drug injectors ever with AIDS) and low (the remainder who are sexually active) risk is described. This model also allows for contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals by both local and international travel. This system is calibrated to recorded AIDS incidence and the best-fit solution provides estimates of variations in the rates of mixing between the compartments together with a reconstruction of the transmission pathway. This solution indicates that, for all the countries, AIDS incidence among those at low risk is expected to remain extremely small relative to their total number. A sensitivity analysis of the low risk partner acquisition rate, however, suggests this endemic state might be fragile within Europe during this century. The discussion examines the relevance of these mixing relationships for the maintenance of disease control. Received: 4 May 2000 / Accepted: 9 July 2000     

MERIS and the red-edge position

The Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) is a payload component of Envisat-1. MERIS will be operated over land with a standard 15 band setting acquiring images with a 300 m spatial resolution. The red-edge position (REP) is a promising variable for deriving foliar chlorophyll concentration, which plays an important role in ecosystem processes. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to study which factors effect the REP of vegetation, (2) to study whether this REP can be derived from the MERIS standard band setting and (3) to show what REP represents at the scale of MERIS data. Two different data sets were explored for simulating the REP using MERIS bands: (1) simulated data using reflectance models and (2) airborne reflectance spectra of an agricultural area obtained by the airborne visible-infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS). A “linear method”, assuming a straight slope of the reflectance spectrum around the midpoint of the slope, was a robust method for determining the REP and the MERIS bands at 665, 708.75, 753.75 and 778.75 nm could be used for applying the “linear method” for REP estimation. Results of the translation to the scale of MERIS data were very promising for applying MERIS at, for instance, the ecosystem level.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conditioning a permeability field to pressure data

Generating one realization of a random permeability field that is consistent with observed pressure data and a known variogram model is not a difficult problem. If, however, one wants to investigate the uncertainty of reservior behavior, one must generate a large number of realizations and ensure that the distribution of realizations properly reflects the uncertainty in reservoir properties. The most widely used method for conditioning permeability fields to production data has been the method of simulated annealing, in which practitioners attempt to minimize the difference between the ’ ’true and simulated production data, and “true” and simulated variograms. Unfortunately, the meaning of the resulting realization is not clear and the method can be extremely slow. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to generating realizations that are conditional to pressure data, focusing on the distribution of realizations and on the efficiency of the method. Under certain conditions that can be verified easily, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is known to produce states whose frequencies of appearance correspond to a given probability distribution, so we use this method to generate the realizations. To make the method more efficient, we perturb the states in such a way that the variogram is satisfied automatically and the pressure data are approximately matched at every step. These perturbations make use of sensitivity coefficients calculated from the reservoir simulator.     

机助法变形监测网优化设计系统(CAMNDS)

本文系统讨论了评定工程控制网质量的精度、可靠性和灵敏度指标,提出变形监测网应以灵敏度作为衡量监测网的主要质量准则,针对具体的变形模型建立了主要以灵敏度、可靠性及费用等为质量准则的机助优化设计系统CAMNDS,并用灵敏度敏感元素作为修改设计的主要依据,具有机助——解析法的特点。该系统还可用于一般工程控制网优化设计。最后,本文给出了某工程监测网优化设计的实例。     

山地区域土地生态红线划定方法与实证研究——以重庆市涪陵区义和镇为例

无序和不合理的土地利用是引发生态问题的重要因素。合理划定土地生态红线,可协调土地利用和生态环境的关系,促进土地资源的合理配置,保障区域生态安全。山地区域地势起伏较大,水系密布,土地利用破碎化,作为重要的水土保持和水源涵养区域,是进行生态恢复和重建的关键地区。本文以山地区域村镇为例,运用GIS平台,基于生态敏感性和生态服务价值,对土地生态进行综合评价,据此划定刚性和弹性的土地生态红线。生态敏感性评价的指标包括坡度、植被覆盖度、水体、土壤类型和降水侵蚀力等5个指标;生态服务价值评价的指标包括食物生产、原料生产、气体调节、气候调节、水文调节、土壤保持、维持养分循环、生物多样性和美学景观9个指标。义和镇的刚性生态红线内所包含的刚性生态保护区面积为43.90 km²,占义和镇总面积的44.34%。弹性生态红线包含的弹性生态保护区面积为29.18 km²,占义和镇总面积的29.47%。义和镇的生态红线范围主要包含东北部山地区域和南部水系丰富地区,该区域的生态敏感性较高,同时也有较高的生态服务价值,因此生态红线的划定对于生态修复和生态保护具有指引作用,为生态系统健康发展提供基础保障,并可为构建生态文明安全格局提供科学支持。     

我国氨氮海水质量基准的探讨

我国现行的氨氮海水质量标准参照国外基准与标准制定,未考虑是否能够有效保护中国海洋物种,科学性欠缺。对我国海水氨氮质量基准进行研究,采用美国EPA推荐的物种敏感度排序(SSR)技术,结合美国海水氨氮水质基准数学模型,搜集利用我国15种海水水生生物的非离子氨毒性数据,根据非离子氨氮和总氨氮转换公式,得出水体在不同pH值、温度和盐度条件下的总氨氮水质基准在pH为7.0~9.0、温度为0~30℃的范围内,盐度为10时,基准最大浓度(CMC)和基准连续浓度(CCC)的范围分别为0.089~57.141 mg/L与0.007~4.365 mg/L;盐度为20时,CMC和CCC的范围分别为0.092~61.152 mg/L与0.007~4.671 mg/L;盐度为30时,CMC和CCC的范围分别为0.095~65.446 mg/L与0.007~4.999 mg/L;3个环境因子,对CCC和CMC的影响程度由大到小依次为:pH、温度、盐度。相对于美国,我国急性基准的取值区间收缩了5倍,慢性基准的取值区间收缩了10倍。研究结果认为,现行的非离子氨数值应修正为0.007 mg/L才能有效保护我国海洋生物,同时建议使用总氨氮的基准来管理海水中氨氮变化。为修订我国氨氮海水质量标准提供了科学依据。     

Historical change and future scenarios of sea level rise in Macau and adjacent waters

Against a background of climate change, Macau is very exposed to sea level rise(SLR) because of its low elevation,small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macau, both historical and, especially,possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macau is now rising at an accelerated rate: 1.35 mm yr-1over 1925–2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr-1over 1970–2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macau contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macau will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8–12, 22–51 and 35–118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the +8.5 W m-2Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5) scenario the increase in sea level by2100 will reach 65–118 cm—double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21 st century but begin to diverge thereafter.     

固态毫米波雷达探测模式的对比评估与分析

利用2014年广东阳江和青藏高原外场观测中多种探测仪器的观测资料,对比了灾害天气国家重点实验室与航天科工23所联合研制的固态毫米波雷达三种探测模式最小可测回波强度、可测液态水(冰水)含量、观测同一目标时回波强度的差异以及与K波段微降水雷达回波强度的差异等。结果表明:(1)毫米波雷达不同模式最小可测回波强度差异与理论差异一致,边界层模式和降水模式能观测近地面全部层云和积云,卷云能观测5km高度冰水含量在0.0007 g·m~(-3)以上的卷云,随着高度上升探测能力有所下降;(2)毫米波雷达使用不同模式观测同一目标时,不同观测模式宏观回波强度一致,大部分差异不超过3.5 dB;(3)K波段微降水雷达和Pasivel2激光雨滴谱仪的近地面回波强度一致,毫米波雷达与K波段微降水雷达存在系统差异。