基于岩溶生态系统特性的水土流失敏感性评价

在岩溶地区大范围内进行土壤侵蚀风险评价需要寻求新的简单有效的方法,建立适合岩溶地区特点的评估模型,才能避免水土流失治理规划的失误。考虑岩溶地区碳酸盐岩成土速率低、存在石漠化等特点,选取土壤允许流失量和退化岩溶生态系统的基岩裸露率,结合年平均降水、坡度、植被指数,在生成各单因素评价图的基础上,在Arcview中完成单因素图的叠加分析,得到贵州省岩溶地区水土流失敏感性综合评价图,并将其划分为不敏感、轻度敏感、中度敏感和强度敏感四级。在此基础上,探讨了贵州省水土流失敏感性的空间分异规律,提出水土流失预防治理的优先区。     

生态环境敏感性及其管理对策——以庆阳市为例

可持续发展理念已经深入人心,而生态环境与社会经济的协调发展成为研究热点之一。而干旱、半干旱区更是面临生态环境恶化与社会经济发展的双重压力,为促进生态环境保护与建设,加强不同生态敏感区的生态环境管理对策,以庆阳市为例,对土壤侵蚀敏感性、土壤沙漠化敏感性、水环境敏感性和生境敏感性进行了评价,并计算了生态敏感性综合指数,将庆阳市划分为生态环境不敏感区、中度敏感区、高度敏感区和极敏感区4个等级。并提出了不同敏感性区域的环境保护对策和产业调整方向,以作为庆阳市可持续发展规划决策的依据。     

Quantitative analysis of riverbank groundwater flow for the Qinhuai River,China, and its influence factors

Interactions of surface water and groundwater (SW–GW) play an important role in the physical, chemical, and ecological processes of riparian zones. The main objective of this study was to describe the two‐dimensional characteristics of riverbank SW–GW interactions and to quantify their influence factors. The SW–GW exchange fluxes for six sections (S1 to S6) of the Qinhuai River, China, were estimated using a heat tracing method, and field hydrogeological and thermodynamic parameters were obtained via inverse modelling. Global sensitivity analysis was performed to compare the effects of layered heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity and river stage variation on SW–GW exchange. Under the condition of varied river stage, only the lateral exchange fluxes at S1 apparently decreased during the monitoring period, probably resulting from its relatively higher hydraulic conductivity. Meanwhile, the SW–GW exchanges for the other five sections were quite stable over time. The lateral exchange fluxes were higher than the vertical ones. The riverbank groundwater flow showed different spatial variation characteristics for the six sections, but most of the higher exchange fluxes occurred in the lower area of a section. The section with larger hydraulic conductivity has an apparent dynamic response to surface water and groundwater level differences, whereas lower permeabilities severely reduced the response of groundwater flow. The influence of boundary conditions on SW–GW interactions was restricted to a limited extent, and the impact extent will expand with the increase of peak water level and hydraulic conductivity. The SW–GW head difference was the main influence factors in SW–GW interactions, and the influence of both SW–GW head difference and hydraulic conductivity decreased with an increase of the distance from the surface water boundary. For each layer of riverbank sediment, its hydraulic conductivity had greater influence on its groundwater flow than the other layers, whereas it had negligible effects on its overlying/underlying layers. Consequently, the variations in river stage and hydraulic conductivity were the main factors influencing the spatial and temporal characteristics of riverbank groundwater flow, respectively.     

Assessment of reference evapotranspiration across an arid urban environment having poor data monitoring system

Estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in urban areas is challenging but essential in arid urban climates. To evaluate ET₀ in an urban environment and non-urban areas, air temperature and relative humidity were measured at five different sites across the arid city of Isfahan, Iran, over 4 years. Wind speed and sunshine hours were obtained from an urban surrounding weather station over the same period and used to estimate ET₀. Calculated ET₀ was compared with satellite-based ET₀ retrieved from the MOD16A2 PET product. Although MODIS PET was strongly correlated with the Valiantzas equation, it overestimated ET₀ and showed average accuracy (r = 0.93–0.94, RMSE = 1.18–1.28 mm/day, MBE = 0.73–0.84 mm/day). The highest ET₀ differences between an urban green space and a non-urban area were 1.1 and 0.87 mm/day, which were estimated by ground measurements and MODIS PET, respectively. The sensitivity of ET₀ to wind speed and sunshine hours indicated a significant effect on cumulative ET₀ at urban sites compared to the non-urban site, which has a considerable impact on the amount of irrigation required in those areas. Although MODIS PET requires improvement to accurately reflect field level microclimate conditions affecting ET₀, it is beneficial to hydrological applications and water resource managers especially in areas where data is limited. In addition, our results indicated that using limited data methods or meteorological data from regional weather stations, leads to incorrect estimation of ET₀ in urban areas. Therefore, decision-makers and urban planners should consider the importance of precisely estimating ET₀ to optimize management of urban green space irrigation, especially in arid and semi-arid climates such as the city of Isfahan.     

Sensitivity analysis for parameter identification in quasi‐static poroelasticity

This paper is devoted to the formulation of the direct differentiation method and adjoint state method in quasi‐static linear poroelasticity. We derive the strong and weak formulation of both methods and discuss their solutions using the finite element method. The techniques are illustrated and tested on two numerical examples for the case of isotropic and homogeneous material. The presented formulations can be extended to more complex behaviour in poromechanics. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天津城市热岛效应对海风(锋)环流影响的数值模拟试验

利用中尺度数值天气模式TJ-WRF,通过对发生在天津城区的局地雷暴天气个例进行模拟,重点通过改变模式中下垫面土地利用类型进行敏感性模拟试验,研究天津城市热岛对海风(锋)环流强度及移动速度等的影响。结果表明:不同土地利用类型城市下垫面造成的城市热岛效应不同,当城市周边郊区下垫面土地类型改为城市建筑用地时,城市热岛效应更加明显且影响范围明显扩大;当城市下垫面改为旱作农地和牧场时,天津城区附近没有出现城市热岛效应。当海风(锋)环流向城区方向移动还未到城区附近时,城市热岛对其有明显加强和加速作用,城市热岛效应越明显其对海风(锋)环流的加强和加速作用越明显,海风(锋)环流移动加快的速度比没有城市热岛时快9.3km·h~(-1)。当海风(锋)环流移动到城区附近时与城市热岛环流相遇,海风(锋)环流受到城市热岛环流阻挡其移速又迅速减慢,其后侧气流南、北分支绕流和向上爬升现象变得明显,两环流相遇叠加后辐合上升运动也明显加强;城市热岛效应越明显其对海风(锋)环流的阻挡作用越明显,海风(锋)环流的移动速度减慢得越多,两环流相遇叠加后的辐合上升运动就越强。另外在向城区移动过程中,海风(锋)环流会使其经过地区低层空气增湿降温,但其后侧湿空气层厚度会因城市热岛效应的存在而明显减小;城市热岛效应越明显,海风(锋)环流后侧湿空气层厚度减小得越明显。     

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into inland aquaculture policies in Thailand

While there have been many pilot projects on adaptation undertaken in the fisheries and aquaculture sector, state policies are only just beginning to address let alone refer to climate change. This study explores the climate-related content, climate sensitivities, and opportunities to incorporate climate change concerns in a set of aquaculture policies by the government of Thailand. The analysis is based on content analysis of policy documents and in-depth interviews with 14 officials that had roles in the design or implementation of 8 Department of Fisheries policies. The Aquaculture Master Plan 2011–2016 and the now abandoned Tilapia Strategy refer directly to climate variability or change. The Master Plan also suggests measures or strategies, such as investment in research, and the transfer of technologies, which would be helpful to sustainability and adaptation. Other policies suggest, or at the very least include, practices which could contribute to strengthening management of climate-related risks, for example: a registration policy included provisions for compensation; extension programme policy recognizes the importance of extreme events; and a standards policy gives guidance on site selection and water management. Most existing aquaculture policies appear to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change; for instance, the zoning policy is sensitive to spatial shifts in climate. Stakeholders had ideas on how policies could be made more robust; in the case of zoning, by periodically reviewing boundaries and adjusting them as necessary.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This study is one of the first evaluations of the coverage and sensitivity of aquaculture policies to climate change. It shows that while existing policies in Thailand are beginning to refer explicitly to climate change, they do not yet include much in the way of adaptation responses, underlining the need for identifying entry points as has been done in this analysis. Further mainstreaming is one option; another possibility is to adopt a more segregated approach, at least initially, and to collect various policy ideas under a new strategic policy for the aquaculture sector as a whole.     

作物模型参数敏感性分析现状与展望

作物模型作为作物产量预测等方面应用广泛、作用巨大的重要工具,其参数的校正和优化等工作是模型模拟的前提。普通的试错法缺乏客观性且效率低下,对作物模型的输入参数进行敏感性分析,识别模拟过程中参数的敏感程度,能够有效识别关键参数并减少率定的参数量,为后续模型参数优化和校正工作奠定基础。本文主要分析了作物模型的局部敏感性分析方法和全局敏感性方法的利弊及其适应条件,涵盖傅立叶幅度灵敏度检验法(FAST)、Morris法、LH-OAT法、普适似然不确定性估计法(GLUE)、Sobol法以及扩展傅立叶幅度灵敏度检验法(EFAST)等,回顾各方法在作物模型中的研究现状,并对作物模型参数敏感性分析方法提出了展望。     

A New Sensitivity Analysis Approach Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Its Preliminary Application

Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties, and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important sources. It is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by reducing the uncertainties of all parameters. Therefore, identifying the sensitive parameters or parameter combinations is crucial. This study proposes a novel approach: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity analysis(CNOPSA) method. The CNOPSA method fully consi...     

WOFOST作物生长模型在国内应用研究进展

WOFOST模型是利用计算机技术对不同生产水平下一年生作物的生长发育和产量形成进行定量分析的模拟模型,学者在WOFOST模型以及模型应用方面做了大量研究,总结WOFOST模型在我国的应用研究成果,可为保障粮食安全和农业的可持续发展提供技术支撑。本文采用分类归纳法,简要阐述了WOFOST模型在我国的应用研究历程及进展,应用研究主要涉及对WOFOST模型参数的敏感性分析、模型的适用性分析、模型的改进以及对模型的应用等4个方面。针对模型应用中存在的薄弱环节及发展所需,加强对模型参数的敏感性分析、加强对模型的本地化应用或改进、加强对模型参数的升尺度研究、加强模型与多学科多技术融合4个方面将是今后WOFOST模型的研究重点。