Optimum Design of Structure Shape for Offshore Jacket Platforms

With the introduction of the design variables of nodal coordinates,which reflect the em-bedded depth of the pile and the jacket bed height,a shape optimum design model for offshore jacket plat-forms is established.A sequential two-level optimum algorithm is developed based on the design variablegradation.On the basis of the finite element method,the sensitivity of the objective function and nodal dis-placement is analyzed.As an example,the BZ281 oil storage offshore platform,which lies in the Bohai oilfield,is designed with the shape optimum model.The results are compared with the cross-section optimumdesign.The tendency of design variables and its reasons in the two methods are analyzed.In the shapeoptimum design,the value of objective function is obviously smaller than that of the initial design and thecross-section optimum design.Therefore,the advantage of structure shape optimum design for jacket plat-forms is remarkable.     

Sensitivity Analysis of the Super Heavy Rainfall Event in Henan on 20 July (2021) Using ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

An unprecedented heavy rainfall event occurred in Henan Province, China, during the period of 1200 UTC 19-1200 UTC 20 July 2021 with a record of 522 mm accumulated rainfall. Zhengzhou, the capital city of Henan, received 201.9 mm of rainfall in just one hour on the day. In the present study, the sensitivity of this event to atmospheric variables is investigated using the ECMWF ensemble forecasts. The sensitivity analysis first indicates that a local YellowHuai River low vortex(YHV) in the southe...     

植被对云南气候要素影响的敏感性试验

利用MM5模式对云南两个具有代表性的强降水过程进行高分辨率模拟,通过下垫面植被的敏感性试验,考察云南气候要素(降水、温度、湿度、风等)对下垫面植被状况的敏感性,从而达到了解自然环境及人类活动在云南天气、气候及气候变化中的作用与影响,以期提高对未来天气、气候变化、环境变化及其对人类社会发展影响的预测和评估能力。试验结果表明,下垫面植被状况的改变对云南气候要素值的影响非常明显,这种影响一般在近地面至700 hPa之间;下垫面植被覆盖率的锐减,使云南降水范围、降水量、空气湿度急剧减小,温度、风力、蒸发能力、干旱指数迅速增大,加剧了云南的干旱化和沙漠化,最终将导致云南的天气气候和环境生态系统偏离本来的平衡状态和演变过程。但下垫面植被状况的改变对降水中心、冷(暖)中心、干(湿)中心位置影响不大。     

福建粮食生产对气象灾害的敏感性研究

根据农业生产和灾害面积数据分析发现,福建省农业成灾面积与产量成明显的反相关关系,而且气象灾害对粮食生产的影响呈范围逐年扩大、强度明显增大的趋势。气象灾害损失强度的变动必然使粮食产量产生波动,因此用剔除播种面积变化影响后的粮食产量变动率与成灾面积变化率的比值来表征粮食生产对气象灾害的敏感性。通过敏感度的计算和分析,较好地解释了20世纪80-90年代气象灾害频繁但粮食产量仍持续增长的事实,以及21世纪初粮食产量减幅与灾害强度增幅不同步的原因。     

Attribution of trends in meteorological drought during 1960–2016 over the Loess Plateau,China

This study uses two forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI), namely the PDSI_TH(potential evapotranspiration estimated-by the Thornthwaite equation) and the PDSI_PM(potential evapotranspiration estimated by the FAO Penman-Monteith equation), to characterize the meteorological drought trends during 1960–2016 in the Loess Plateau(LP) and its four subregions. By designing a series of numerical experiments, we mainly investigated various climatic factors' contributions to the drought trends at annual, summer, and autumn time scales. Overall, the drying trend in the PDSI_TH is much larger than that in the PDSI_PM. The former is more sensitive to air temperature than precipitation, while the latter is the most sensitive to precipitation among all meteorological factors. Increasing temperature results in a decreasing trend(drying) in the PDSI_TH, which is further aggravated by decreasing precipitation, jointly leading to a relatively severe drying trend. For the PDSI_PM that considers more comprehensive climatic factors, the drying trend is partly counteracted by the declining wind speed and solar radiation. Therefore, the PDSI_PM ultimately shows a much smaller drying trend in the past decades.     

钢框架结构的非线性静力抗震可靠性分析Ⅱ:可靠度指标及其灵敏度

将有限元反应及其灵敏度分析与结构可靠度分析的近似解析方法结合起来,可以进行具有隐式功能函数的大型复杂结构的可靠性分析。在基于位移的非线性纤维梁柱单元及其灵敏度直接微分表达式的基础上,通过力学变换、概率变换和反应灵敏度,将结构可靠度计算方法FORM和SORM与有限元方法有机地集成在一起。依据现行抗震设计规范,建立了钢框架结构典型构件承载能力和结构层间变形能力的抗震极限状态方程,利用地震作用的等效随机静力模型,采用非线性有限元静力可靠度方法,对一实际工程结构的抗震可靠度及其灵敏度进行了概率分析和评价,结果表明：尽管在大震作用下该结构的层间弹塑性变形可靠度较高,但是构件极限承载能力的可靠度指标较低,仍然存在失效的可能性。因此,仅验算“小震”作用下结构的承载能力可靠度和“大震”作用下结构的变形能力可靠度是不够的,还需要验算在“中震”和“大震”作用下结构的极限承载能力可靠度。     

Correlation failure analysis of an uncertain hysteretic vibration system

In this paper, a numerical method for correlation sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear random vibration system is presented. Based on the first passage failure model, the probability perturbation method is employed to determine the statistical characteristics of failure modes and the correlation between them. The sensitivity of correlation between failure modes with respect to random parameters characterizing the uncertainty of the hysteretic loop is discussed. In a numerical example, a two-DOF shear structure with uncertain hysteretic restoring force is considered. The statistical characteristics of response, failure modes and the sensitivity of random hysteretic loop parameters are provided, and also compared with a Monte Carlo simulation.     

基于GIS的天水市区南北两山生态敏感性分析

基于地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析技术对生态敏感性进行了分析研究,按得分与赋权重的方法,研究出四个级别的敏感性分布,为天水市的规划提供了可靠的科学判断和决策依据,     

考虑渗透率变化的煤层气储层数值模拟及参数敏感性研究

煤层气开采过程中储层渗透率的变化对产气量影响较大,通过引入S＆D渗透率变化模型,建立了考虑渗透率变化的煤储层三维气水两相渗流数学模型,完成模型检验后应用所编制软件研究了煤储层参数、吸附参数及渗透率模型特征参数对开发效果的影响。结果表明,煤层气产量随着初始含气量、煤层有效厚度、裂缝渗透率和Langmuir压力的增大而增大,随储层原始压力、裂缝孔隙度和Langmuir体积的增大而减小,而解吸时间对产气量影响不大;裂缝渗透率随着杨氏模量和基质收缩/膨胀系数的增大而增大,随泊松比和裂缝压缩系数的增大而减小。引入S＆D模型后计算的累积产气量要比常规模型低1.3%,因此不可忽视煤层气产出过程中渗透率的变化。     

郑家-王庄地区沙一段粘土矿物特征及对储层敏感性影响

东营凹陷郑家—王庄地区沙一段砂岩储集层中蕴藏大量稠油油藏,但开发过程中粘土矿物的敏感性严重制约了该油类藏的有效开发。定向X射线衍射分析结果表明,本区沙一段砂岩储层中粘土矿物组成类型为伊/蒙无序间层矿物(S/I)、高岭石、伊利石和绿泥石,其中以伊/蒙无序间层矿物的相对含量居多。这就决定了研究区储层敏感性以水敏性为主,其余敏感性无或较弱。据定向X射线衍射谱图上S/I主峰d值大小,进一步识别出钙型S/I、钠型S/I及钙钠过渡型S/I。扫描电镜观察表明,S/I具有丝状、网状和蜂窝状三种形态,且大都包裹在岩石骨架颗粒的表面作为孔隙衬里而存在。阳离子交换容量和膨胀率研究结果显示,二者与样品中S/I含量和层间阳离子类型相关。膨胀率和阳离子交换量与S/I含量都呈较好的正相关关系。在S/I中蒙皂石层含量相当的情况下,钠型S/I的膨胀率和阳离子交换量值偏大,钙型偏小,钙钠过渡型居中。此外,粘土总量以及S/I产状对储层损害也有较大的影响。