中国冰川系统对气候变化响应的敏感性分析

Data of 44 glacier systems in China used in this paper were obtained from Chinese Glacier Inventories and the meteorological data were got from Meteorological Atlas of Plateau of west China. Based on the statistical analysis and functional model simulation results of the 44 glacier systems in China, the glacier systems were divided into extremely-sensitive glacier system, semi-sensitive glacier system, extremely-steady glacier system and semi-steady glacier system in terms of glacier system＇s level of water-energy exchange, rising gradient of the equilibrium line altitudes and retreating rate of area to climate warming, their median size and vertical span distribution, and their runoff characteristics to climate warming. Furthermore the functional model of glacier system to climate warming was applied in this paper to predict the average variation trends of the 4 types of glacier systems, which indicate that different sensitivity types of glacier systems respond to the climate warming differently.     

基于H-B准则的公路桥梁桩基嵌岩深度计算

基于Hoek-Brown强度准则,推导了在微小转动下嵌岩段桩侧法向应力及水平摩阻力计算模型,采用静力平衡原理建立了水平荷载作用下公路桥梁桩基嵌岩深度的计算公式,提出了嵌岩深度计算的新方法。参数敏感性及影响因素分析表明： （1）水平荷载引起的力矩 、桩径d、岩层上覆压力 、岩石单轴抗压强度 、岩体类别参数 、岩体地质力学分类指标RMR均对嵌岩深度有一定影响,在 、d不变的情况下,岩体质量和岩石单轴抗压强度对嵌岩深度的确定最为敏感; （2）岩体质量越差,所需嵌岩深度越大;岩体质量越好,岩层上覆压力对嵌岩深度影响越小,反之越大。（3）嵌岩深度随岩石单轴抗压强度的提高呈非线性缓慢地减小,在相同的单轴抗压强度下,岩体质量越好,嵌岩深度越小,反之越大。     

动剪切模量比对反应谱影响的定量分析

动剪切模量比的不确定性会对场地地震反应计算的结果产生较大的影响,而目前对这种影响的研究多限于定性分析,笔者利用渤海海域典型场地对这一影响进行定量分析。首先,建立了土层地震反应计算模型;然后,在不改变影响土层地震反应计算结果其他参量的前提下,赋予了原动剪切模量比一系列偏差并求得了场地反应谱的变化;最后,得到了反应谱对动剪切模量比的敏感度。结果表明:1)在动剪切模量比曲线增大(或减小)后,在基准反应谱的特征周期附近,存在一个反应谱相对于基准反应谱由增大转变为减小(或由减小转变为增大)的转变点。2)在概率水准2和3下:反应谱平台段对动剪切模量比的敏感度最高,其值基本上分布在1.0~3.0;反应谱下降段的敏感度绝对值随着周期的增大先迅速增大后逐渐趋于0,最大值达1.0以上;反应谱上升段的敏感度分布平稳,其值多分布在1.0~2.0。     

Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,northwest China

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle, which integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Research on spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) enables understanding of climate change and its effects on hydrological processes and water resources. In this study, ET_o was estimated by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith method in the Jing River Basin in China, based on daily data from 37 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. ET_o trends were detected by the Mann–Kendall test in annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales. Sensitivity coefficients were used to examine the contribution of important meteorological variables to ET_o. The influence of agricultural activities, especially irrigation on ET_o was also analyzed. We found that ET_o showed a decreasing trend in most of the basin in all seasons, except for autumn, which showed an increasing trend. Mean maximum temperature was generally the most sensitive parameter for ET_o, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, mean minimum temperature, and wind speed. Wind speed was the most dominant factor for the declining trend in ET_o. The more significant decrease in ET_o for agricultural and irrigation stations was mainly because of the more significant decrease in wind speed and sunshine hours, a mitigation in climate warming, and more significant increase in relative humidity compared with natural stations and non‐irrigation stations. Changes in ET_o and the sensitivity coefficient of meteorological variables in relation to ET_o were also affected by topography. Better understanding of ET_o response to climate change will enable efficient use of agricultural production and water resources, which could improve the ecological environment in Jing River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

边坡滚石运动学参数敏感性

滚石是边坡工程中一种常见的动力地质灾害.正确估算滚石运动轨迹是经济合理地进行防护结构设计的基础.滚石运动轨迹受多种参数的影响,准确把握各运动学参数对防护结构设计控制指标的敏感性,可以更加有针对性地进行滚石灾害防治工作.因此,将正交试验设计与基于运动学的滚石运动轨迹数值计算方法相结合,以景(德镇)鹰(潭)高速公路DK27+120里程附近边坡滚石灾害为例,将3类防护结构设计控制指标作为试验指标,将5种影响滚石运动轨迹的参数作为试验因素,应用正交试验表安排滚石运动轨迹数值计算试验,进行3指标5因素正交试验.通过试验结果的极差分析与方差分析,对滚石运动学参数的敏感性以及显著性进行分析和检验,确定影响防护结构设计控制指标的主要参数,为滚石灾害的防治提供科学依据.     

椭圆-抛物线双屈服面模型参数灵敏度分析

利用两种土石料三轴CD试验数据确定两组椭圆-抛物双屈服面模型参数,研究了模型参数? 、KG、n、h、m、M1、M2和pr分别单独变化（而其他参数保持不变）对模型所反映的土的应力-应变关系的影响。结果表明,土体的体积应变对参数h、m比较敏感;? 、KG、n对剪胀性土的体变影响较大,而对剪缩性土体变影响不明显;? 、KG、n、h和m对模型反映的强度没有影响;pr变化对体变和强度影响均较小。M1和M2对强度和体变均有显著影响,且M1和M2中的小值决定模型的强度。定义了灵敏度,即一种用于表示模型参数对其所反映的应力-应变的影响程度的参数。分析表明,不同的参数,其灵敏度差异很大;不同的土类,参数灵敏度差异也较大。实际应用时,对灵敏度大的参数取值应特别慎重。     

On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes

Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WRF-chem sensitivity to vertical resolution during a saharan dust event

The Saharan dust event that occurred between the 22nd and 30th of June 2012 influenced the atmospheric radiative properties over North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula, the Western Mediterranean basin, extending its effects to France and Southern England. This event is well documented in satellite imagery, as well as on the air quality stations over the Iberian Peninsula and the AERONET NASA network. In order to assess the effect of the model vertical resolution on the extinction coefficient fields, as a proxy to the particulate matter concentrations in the atmosphere, the WRF-Chem model was applied during this period over a mother domain with a resolution of 18 km, covering Europe and North Africa. To this end five model setups differing in the number of vertical levels were tested. Model skills were evaluated by comparing the model results with CALIPSO and EARLINET LIDAR data. Results show that the model is able to simulate the higher level aerosol transport but it is susceptible to the vertical resolution used. This is due to the thickness of the transport layers which is, eventually, thinner than the vertical resolution of the model. When comparing model results to the observed vertical profiles, it becomes evident that the broad features of the extinction coefficient profile are generally reproduced in all model configurations, but finer details are captured only by the higher resolution simulations.     

楔形刀具侵入岩石损伤破坏影响因素的理论分析及数值模拟

通过空腔膨胀理论研究楔形刀具几何参数（刃角）、岩石力学参数（抗压强度、泊松比）对刀具与岩石接触面下岩石弹-塑性交界面半径的影响。结果表明：刀具与岩石接触宽度一定时,刃角越小,岩体的损伤区域越大,从而导致弹-塑性交界面半径增大。在其他因素不变的前提下,岩石泊松比增大或者抗压强度增加都导致弹-塑性交界面半径减小。采用参数敏感性分析方法对3种影响因素的敏感性进行了分析,在接触宽度一定的条件下,刃角的大小对弹-塑性交界半径的影响最大。采用ABAQUS软件建立刀具侵入岩石的数值模型,研究表明,刃角的变化对文中定义的岩体内最大拉应力点空间位置以及最小梯度方向有着显著影响。     

伽马拟声波分频重构反演在储层预测中的应用

在地质和地震资料研究基础上,通过岩心、录井和测井分析,探索不同频率尺度测井曲线的储层意义,优选研究区内钻穿古近系底砂岩段砂泥薄互层储层5口探井的储层敏感曲线.在曲线预处理、标准化和敏感性分析的前提下,利用曲线分频拟合,对储层敏感曲线和声波曲线做小波多尺度分解,提取反映薄互层储层岩性变化的中频中尺度伽马曲线和反映地层速度的低频大尺度声波曲线.利用统计模型信息融合构建具有声波量纲的拟声波曲线.在地质研究和沉积演化模式的指导下,运用井约束反演的方法补充地震资料的高频和低频信息,提高地震资料的质量,预测有利储层分布.研究表明,伽马拟声波分频重构反演能有效的提高地震资料的纵向和横向分辨率,刻画复杂地质条件下的薄层储层分布.