Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.     

Quantifying groundwater sensitivity and resilience over peninsular India

Groundwater in India plays an important role to support livelihoods and maintain ecosystems and the present rate of depletion of groundwater resources poses a serious threat to water security. Yet, the sensitivity of the hydrological processes governing groundwater recharge to climate variability remains unclear in the region. Here we assess the groundwater sensitivity (precipitation–recharge relationship) and its potential resilience towards climatic variability over peninsular India using a conceptual water balance model and a convex model, respectively in 54 catchments over peninsular India. Based on the model performance using a comprehensive approach (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency [NSE], bias and variability), 24 out of 54 catchments are selected for assessment of groundwater sensitivity and its resilience. Further, a systematic approach is used to understand the changes in resilience on a temporal scale based upon the convex model and principle of critical slowing down theory. The results of the study indicate that the catchments with higher mean groundwater sensitivity (GWS) encompass high variability in GWS over the period (1988–2011), thus indicating the associated vulnerability towards hydroclimatic disturbances. Moreover, it was found that the catchments pertaining to a lower magnitude of mean resilience index incorporates a high variability in resilience index over the period (1993–2007), clearly illustrating the inherent vulnerability of these catchments. The resilience of groundwater towards climatic variability and hydroclimatic disturbances that is revealed by groundwater sensitivity is essential to understand the future impacts of changing climate on groundwater and can further facilitate effective adaptation strategies.     

Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model

This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于因子分析和聚类分析的公众雾霾敏感度差异研究 ——以西安市为例

为研究公众的雾霾敏感度,以西安市13个区为案例地,运用因子分析法对公众的敏感度进行降维,引入潜在冲突指数(PCI)分析公众雾霾敏感度各维度的内部差异,并对公众进行分类。结果表明:(1)公众的雾霾敏感度可分为5个维度,分别是防护行为、降霾行为、雾霾关注度、生活影响感知和健康影响感知;(2)公众在防护行为、降霾行为、生活影响感知和健康影响感知方面意见一致,且敏感度较高;在雾霾关注度方面,公众之间的分歧较大,雾霾关注度小的公众敏感度较低;(3)基于以上5个维度,将公众分为防护敏感群体、关注度敏感群体、健康敏感群体和环保敏感群体。     

Effects of Dropsonde Data in Field Campaigns on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific in 2020 and the Role of CNOP Sensitivity

Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones, namely Higos,Nangka, Saudel, and Atsani, over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in 2020. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first time. The observing system experiments...     

一次双台风影响下暴雨过程的中尺度涡旋模拟分析

本文对上海地区一次双台风环境影响的暴雨过程进行数值模拟及分析,探讨了强降水过程中大气中低层的涡旋特征及发展机理。结果表明:(1)暴雨过程处于双台风、大陆高压的共同影响下,中低层伴随有较明显的中尺度低涡发展。(2)与涡旋相关的局地垂直涡度由低层开始发展,先期涡度发展集中于850 hPa以下,之后向大气中上层发展增强,涡旋尺度强度也随之发展,最终形成在对流层下半部具有闭合式气旋性环流的深厚涡旋。(3)影响局地涡度变化的水平平流项、垂直平流项、散度制造项和倾斜项对不同时间、不同高度的涡度作用各不相同,其中散度制造项是中低层涡度的主要来源,垂直平流项的输送作用对中上层的涡度发展有重要作用,倾斜项对涡旋发展移动也有部分贡献。(4)通过敏感性试验考察了对流潜热反馈的贡献,发现潜热释放过程通过加热改变大气温压场结构,从而维持并改变局地涡度倾向的中低层辐合及对流上升运动,对涡旋的发展和移动起了重要影响。     

辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析

采用Penman-Monteith法和敏感系数法对辽宁省1965~2014年潜在蒸散发量及影响潜在蒸散发的气象因子敏感性进行分析,探讨气候变化下影响辽宁省潜在蒸散发量变化的主导因子及潜在蒸散发对气候变化的定量响应。结果表明：① 近50 a辽宁省潜在蒸散发呈现显著减少趋势,在空间上由西向东递减;② 潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性在年尺度上表现为,水汽压最为敏感,其次为太阳辐射、风速、平均气温;在季节尺度上,春季和秋季对平均气温最不敏感,夏季对风速最不敏感,冬季对太阳辐射最不敏感;③ 空间分布上,气象因素的敏感系数与气象因子空间变化规律相吻合,潜在蒸散发对气温的敏感性由北部向南部递增,对水汽压、太阳辐射的敏感性由东部向西部递减,而风速与之变化趋势相反。④ 风速的显著降低是辽宁省潜在蒸散发量下降的主要原因,太阳辐射的下降及水汽压的升高也促使了潜在蒸散发量的下降。     

一次局地大暴雨的地面观测资料同化预报试验研究

基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其3DVAR（3-Dimentional Variational）资料同化系统,采用36 km、12 km 、4 km三层嵌套网格进行逐3 h资料同化和快速更新循环预报,对2011年5月8日鲁中一次局地大暴雨过程进行了资料同化敏感性试验。试验结果表明,地面观测资料同化和快速更新循环对本次降水的预报起到了关键性作用。在快速更新循环预报时不同化地面观测资料,或同化全部观测资料进行冷启动预报,模式均不能预报出山东的降水。同化地面观测资料后,显著改进了模式降水落区预报。地面观测资料同化可以影响到700 hPa高度以上温压湿风要素的变化,从而改变了大气初始场的温湿结构,导致模式预报的700 hPa附近高空大气湿度和热力不稳定增强,700 hPa以下低层风场更强,850 hPa鲁中以南风速较无观测资料同化的偏强2～4 m·s-1,低层风场的动力作用触发高空的不稳定大气,降水出现在山东。     

贵阳木本植物始花期对温度变化的敏感度

植物物候期的温度敏感度反映了植物是怎样及在何种程度上响应气候变化,研究不同物种物候期的温度敏感度有利于鉴别易受气候变化影响的物种。现有关于始花期的温度敏感度研究主要集中在温带地区,在亚热带地区研究仍较少。本文以位于亚热带的贵阳为研究区,利用1980-2014年60种典型木本植物的始花期观测资料,分析了该地区植物始花期变化趋势及对气温变化的敏感度,评估了样本量大小对敏感度估计稳定性的影响。结果表明：①研究时段内贵阳发生了明显的气候变化,年平均气温显著升高,其中春、秋季的增温比夏、冬季显著。②绝大多数植物(88.3%)的始花期在研究时段内呈提前趋势,其中显著提前的占物种总数的21.7%(P<0.05);60种植物始花期总体的提前趋势为2.89 d/10 a。③绝大多数(88.3%)植物始花期的年际变化与最优时段内平均气温呈显著负相关(P<0.05),所有植物始花期的总体敏感度为-5.75 d/℃。④样本量大小对温度敏感度估计的稳定性有显著影响,15年长序列能将敏感度估计结果的波动范围以99%的概率控制在2 d/℃之内。     

国家地缘脆弱性探索——缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示

当今国际地缘政治经济格局正处于剧烈变动中,并对缅甸地缘环境的复杂性及地缘脆弱性产生深刻影响。缅甸所在的大湄公河次区域日益成为世界重要地缘政治力量博弈前沿和焦点。系统研究缅甸国家地缘脆弱性,对于中国西部大开发、“一带一路”及周边地缘环境建设具有重要战略意义。本文基于地缘政治及人地关系地域系统等学科理论,规范分析与实证分析相结合,从暴露性、敏感性和适应性等方面构建了国家地缘脆弱性研究框架,系统探索了缅甸典型的国家地缘脆弱性特征。资源环境禀赋、内部地域结构等引致的经济政治体系、社会文化传承等方面是缅甸脆弱性的本底特征,而缅甸与中国的地缘关系及决策则从根本上影响其地缘战略位态。缅甸地缘政治脆弱性及其与中国的相互依赖使之成为西方“U型封堵大陆战略”的薄弱点和今后角逐的着力点,也是中国解围破局重要的地缘战略出口。近期中国应通过“一带一路”孟中印缅经济走廊建设,大力加强中缅之间政治、经济、文化等各方面友好关系。