利用测高卫星观测数据计算全球海平面季变化

利用了美国宇航局和法国空间局联合公布的Jason-1第1周期至第129周期卫星测高数据,采用共线平差的方法计算了2002年至2005年全球海平面的季变化。计算结果表明,全球海平面高第一、四季度上升,第二、三季度下降,且第三季度下降明显。     

The influence of the electromagnetic core-mantle coupling torques on earth's rotation

The electromagnetic core-mantle coupling is one of the most likely hypotheses to explain the connections between both, the decade fluctuations of the Earth rotation and such of the magnetic field of the Earth. Within this paper, the axial and equatorial electromagnetic torques are computed at time intervals of two years from 1903.5 to 1975.5. They are compared with mechanical torques necessary for the excitation of the decade variations of the rotation of the Earth. The comparison is made with regard to the magnitude of the torques, to their time behaviour and to the periods within the time variations of both types of the torques. The computed electromagnetic torques are comparable with that necessary to excite the variations of the rotation of the Earth. But they are two or three orders less than that necessary to excite the decade variations of the polar motion. Some comparable periods were found within the spectra of the electromagnetic and the mechanical torques. This speaks in favour of the core-mantle coupling. But there are differences between both spectra too hinting at other processes which we cannot describe by a simple model of the core-mantle coupling.     

A note on the role of meridional wind stress anomalies and heat flux in ENSO simulations

Four comparative experiments and some supplementary experiments were conducted to examine the role of meridional wind stress anomalies and heat flux variability in ENSO simulations by using a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model （OGCM）. The results indicate that changes in the direction and magnitude of meridional wind stress anomalies have little influence on ENSO simulations until meridional wind stress anomalies are unrealistically enlarged by a factor of 5.0. However, evidence of an impact on ENSO simulations due to heat flux variability was found. The simulated Nino-3 index without the effect of heat flux anomalies tended to be around 1.0° lower than the observed, as well as the control run, during the peak months of ENSO events.     

Ancient and modern cold-climate aeolian sand deposition: A review

Although partly active aeolian sand sheets and dunes cover large areas in the zones of (dis)continuous permafrost, little precise information is available about the influence of cold-climate conditions on modern aeolian processes. This means that palaeoenvironmental reconstructions in the stabilised, mainly Late Pleistocene dune fields and cover sand regions in the ‘sand belts’ of the European Lowlands and the Northern Great Plains of the USA and Canada, are necessarily still based on ancient evidence. Cold-climate wind deposits are typically derived from areas of abundant sediment supply like unvegetated flood plains, glacial outwash plains, till plains and lake shores. The common parabolic and transverse dune forms resemble those observed in temperate regions. Although a variety of periglacial features has been identified in Late Pleistocene dune and cover sands none of them indicate that permafrost is crucial to aeolian activity. Specific structures in aeolian strata permit tentative interpretation of the moisture content of depositional sand surfaces, the nature of annual sedimentation cycles and the processes by which strata were deposited and/or contorted. But surprisingly little is known about the role of vegetation in the process of sand accumulation. Dunes are most informative with respect to reconstructions of past wind regimes, which offer important data for verification of palaeoclimatic simulations.     

基于LSTM的海洋表面短期风速预测研究

为实现对海面风速精确的短期预测,提出了一种基于长短期记忆(LSTM,longshort-termmemory)神经网络的短期风速预测模型,选取OceanSITES数据库中单个浮标站点采集的风速历史数据作为模型输入,经过训练设置最佳参数等步骤,实现了以LSTM方法,对该站点所在海区海面风速在各季节性代表月份海面风速的24 h短期预测。同时通过不同预测时长的实验以及与BP(back propagation)神经网络神经网络和径向基函数神经网络(radialbasisfunctionneuralnetwork,RBF)的预测效果对比实验,证明了LSTM预测方法相比上述两种神经网络预测方法,在海表面风速预测应用中的优越性。最后通过多个海域对应的站点风速数据预测实验,证明了LSTM神经网络模型的普遍适用性,由相关系数和预测误差的分析可知该方法具备应对急剧变化数据的预测稳定性,可以作为海洋表面风速短期预测的一种可靠方法。     

Nonlinear dynamo effects for an inhomogeneously turbulent rotating fluid

Im Rahmen der Magnetohydrodynamik der mittleren Felder werden die turbulenzbedingte elektromotorische Kraft und der turbulenzbedingte Spannungstensor für eine leitende Flüssigkeit mit inhomogener Turbulenz auf einem rotierenden Körper berechnet. Dabei wird der Einflu$sZ des Magnetfeldes auf der Turbulenz berücksichtigt. So erscheinen nichtlineare Effekte bei den Vorgängen, die für das Vorhandensein von Magnetfeld und differentieller Rotation verantwortlich sind; die dafür ma$sZgebenden Koeffizienten sind Funktionen des Magnetfeldes. Die Nichtlinearitäten werden bis zur zweiten Ordnung im mittleren Magnetfeld (d. h. als schwache Nichtlinearitäten) erfa$sZt. Der $aL-Effekt beim $aL$OM-Dynamo erleidet sowohl bei langsamer als auch bei rascher Rotation eine Schwächung durch das Magnetfeld. Es werden einige astrophysikalische Anwendungen der Ergebnisse erörtert. Insbesondere wird auf die Möglichkeit hingewiesen, da$sZ die bei der Sonne beobachteten Torsionsschwingungen als Folge des im Aktivitätszyklus schwankenden magnetischen Einflusses auf den für die differentielle Rotation ma$sZgebenden A-Effekt erscheinen.     

中国大陆7级以上地震频次场时空异常特征

本文以地震频次作为地震活动的变量,通过自然正交函数展开方法,计算中国大陆7级以上强震前的地震活动频次场,提取出强震前时间因子和空间等值线的异常。结果表明,强震前时间因子出现超过均方差的高值或低值异常,异常多数分布在频次场的前4个典型场,具有多分量特点,第1个典型场异常贡献率最大(占总场40%～60%),绝大部分强震前5～8年出现长期异常,部分强震前1～2年出现中期异常,少数强震前3月出现短临异常的特征。区域频次等值线出现的高梯度旋涡区域是异常危险区,等值线值大于0.9且具有活动构造的危险区往往是强震的发震位置。另外,地震频次场与传统方法的区域地震活动频次(3月)震例对比,表明频次场时间因子异常具有自己的独特优越性和缺陷,并讨论了这些方法的差异性。     

外热带大气扰动对ENSO的影响

合成分析了20世纪80年代以来5次主要的ENSO事件,发现外热带大气扰动通过经向风异常不仅对ENSO的发生起到重要的触发作用,而且影响到ENSO的发展和衰减. 因此,尽管ENSO对外热带大气扰动有影响,但同时外热带大气扰动又与ENSO有相互作用. 在ENSO发生前,南印度洋中纬度为反气旋异常,并通过Rossby波的频散作用加强了澳大利亚附近的反气旋异常;同时,澳大利亚东部沿海的南风异常与菲律宾附近的北风异常在赤道辐合,促进了赤道西太平洋西风异常的爆发和其后ENSO的发生. 在ENSO发生之后,东南太平洋上的气旋异常及相关的南风异常进一步增强了赤道中东太平洋的西风异常和ENSO的发展. 当ENSO达到成熟时,澳大利亚东部的反气旋异常东移,使东南太平洋的气旋异常减弱,南方涛动型环流异常亦随之减弱;同时,阿留申气旋异常加强,尤其是副热带北太平洋的风场异常可加强赤道中东太平洋海水的涌升,使该地区海表温度降低,加速ENSO的消亡.     

镜质组反射率测试及其所反映的构造应力场

为了利用煤镜质组反射率推断豫北构造应力场,基于构造应力是造成镜质组反射率各向异性（VRA）的主要控制因素,对在豫北焦作、安阳、鹤壁三个矿区井下取的定向煤样品进行了室内显微镜下反射率测试,对测试数据按有关公式进行计算后就得出了由最大反射率值、中间反射率值、最小反射率值为轴组成的镜质组反射率椭球体（VRI）.结果表明,研究区煤样显示二轴晶正光性,它们经过了强烈的构造变形,研究区煤样镜质组反射率各向异性是由构造应力所引起;由镜质组反射率椭球体（VRI）得出的豫北构造应力场与钻探、节理统计、河南省区域构造应力场分析等方法得出的应力场基本上是吻合的,但也有一定的区别,主要体现在应力场到安阳、鹤壁矿区后发生了向左的偏转.总之,利用煤镜质组反射率各向异性推断构造应力场的方法是可行的、是有效的.     

地球非偶极磁场对虚地磁极计算的影响

古地磁学使用的虚地磁极（VGP）是在地心偶极磁场假设下计算的,由于地球非偶极磁场的存在,VGP一般不同于真地磁极（RGP）.为了定量检验非偶极磁场对VGP的影响,本文利用国际参考地磁场模型IGRF 1900～2000,在全球5°×5°的“虚拟测点”网格上计算了VGP和RGP的位置,并求出两种磁极的经纬度偏差和二者的角距离.结果表明,南极地区VGP与GP的角距离最大,可达26°,南大西洋和欧亚大陆北部最大达到24°和18°,其余地区一般小于15°.VGP对RGP的偏差与地磁场分布有关：在非偶极磁场较弱的地区（如太平洋半球）,纬度偏差一般不大（≤10°）,但是在主要地磁异常区（如南大西洋和南极地区）,VGP对RGP的纬度偏差可达25°.VGP对RGP的经度偏差要比纬度偏差大得多,例如在欧亚大陆北部地区,经度偏差分布在-180°到180°的大范围内.