Variation in low food access areas due to data source inaccuracies

Several spatial measures of community food access identifying so called “food deserts” have been developed based on geospatial information and commercially-available, secondary data listings of food retail outlets. It is not known how data inaccuracies influence the designation of Census tracts as areas of low access. This study replicated the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) food desert measure and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) non-healthier food retail tract measure in two secondary data sources (InfoUSA and Dun & Bradstreet) and reference data from an eight-county field census covering 169 Census tracts in South Carolina. For the USDA ERS food deserts measure accuracy statistics for secondary data sources were 94% concordance, 50–65% sensitivity, and 60–64% positive predictive value (PPV). Based on the CDC non-healthier food retail tracts both secondary data demonstrated 88–91% concordance, 80–86% sensitivity and 78–82% PPV. While inaccuracies in secondary data sources used to identify low food access areas may be acceptable for large-scale surveillance, verification with field work is advisable for local community efforts aimed at identifying and improving food access.     

40m天线预测控制算法的研究

将预测控制的思想用于大口径天线跟踪系统的控制,提出了位置控制器的一种设计方案。并对天线的直流驱动系统进行建模和仿真实验。     

三电平逆变器驱动的IPMSM模型预测电流控制系统研究

三电平逆变器拓扑结构简单、所用器件较少且每个功率管所承受的电压应力小,适用于高电压、大容量的场合.相比于传统两电平逆变器,三电平逆变器输出电平的数量从2变成3,输出的电压电流谐波含量低,波形正弦度更好.本文提出内置式永磁同步电机模型预测电流控制算法,以提高控制系统电流动态响应速度,并针对该算法在控制系统中产生的时间延迟,引入二阶延迟补偿策略.对以上内容建立系统仿真模型,仿真结果表明：三电平逆变器相比两电平逆变器输出电流波形谐波含量更小、电机的动态及稳态性能更好.     

道路地图示意性表达的可用性评估

当前示意性地图表达主要针对公共交通网络,缺乏对道路地图示意性表达可用性评估研究。本文选取景区和街道两个典型道路场景,采用最新的自动示意化方法生成示意地图,以主观问卷调查结合客观眼动试验的方式,评估道路地图示意性表达的可用性。试验结果表明:①示意性表达能够提升道路地图的简化度、清晰度及用户满意度,尤其对于原始道路形状较为复杂的情况;②示意地图中路径形状简化会造成不同路径感知长度差异的改变,从而影响到人们路径抉择行为;③对于路径示意性结果增加了道路网密集程度的情况,会降低示意地图认知效率。本文研究成果有助于道路地图自动示意性表达规则完善和方法优化,能够进一步提升地图示意性表达的实用性。     

Inverse modelling for freshwater lens in small islands: Kish Island,Persian Gulf

A number of challenges including instability, nonconvergence, nonuniqueness, nonoptimality, and lack of a general guideline for inverse modelling have limited the application of automatic calibration by generic inversion codes in solving the saltwater intrusion problem in real‐world cases. A systematic parameter selection procedure for the selection of a small number of independent parameters is applied to a real case of saltwater intrusion in a small island aquifer system in the semiarid region of the Persian Gulf. The methodology aims at reducing parameter nonuniqueness and uncertainty and the time spent on inverse modelling computations. Subsequent to the automatic calibration of the numerical model, uncertainty is analysed by constrained nonlinear optimization of the inverse model. The results define the percentage of uncertainty in the parameter estimation that will maintain the model inside a user‐defined neighbourhood of the best possible calibrated model. Sensitivity maps of both pressure and concentration for the small island aquifer system are also developed. These sensitivity maps indicate higher sensitivity of pressure to model parameters compared with concentration. These sensitivity maps serve as a benchmark for correlation analysis and also assist in the selection of observations points of pressure and concentration in the calibration process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predictive active control of MDOF structures

This paper presents a theoretical study of a predictive active control system used to improve the response of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) structures to earthquakes. As an example a building frame equipped with electrorheological (ER) dampers is considered. The aim of the design is to find a combination of forces that are produced by the ER dampers in order to obtain an optimal structural response. The mechanical response of ER fluid dampers is regulated by an electric field. Linear auto‐regressive model with exogenous input (ARX) is used to predict the displacements and the velocities of the frame in order to overcome the time‐delay problem in the control system. The control forces in the ER devices are calculated at every time step by the optimal control theory (OCT) according to the values of the displacements and of the velocities that are predicted at the next time step at each storey of the structure. A numerical analysis of a seven‐storey ER damped structure is presented as an example. It shows a significant improvement of the structural response when the predictive active control system is applied compared to that of an uncontrolled structure or that of a structure with controlled damping forces with time delay. The structure's displacements and velocities that were used to obtain the optimal control forces were predicted according to an ‘occurring’ earthquake by the ARX model (predictive control). The response was similar to that of the structure with control forces that were calculated from a ‘known’ complete history of the earthquake's displacement and velocity values, and were applied without delay (instantaneous control). Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A representativeness-directed approach to mitigate spatial bias in VGI for the predictive mapping of geographic phenomena

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) contains valuable field observations that represent the spatial distribution of geographic phenomena. As such, it has the potential to provide regularly updated low-cost field samples for predictively mapping the spatial variations of geographic phenomena. The predictive mapping of geographic phenomena often requires representative samples for high mapping accuracy, but samples consisting of VGI observations are often not representative as they concentrate on specific geographic areas (i.e. spatial bias) due to the opportunistic nature of voluntary observation efforts. In this article, we propose a representativeness-directed approach to mitigate spatial bias in VGI for predictive mapping. The proposed approach defines and quantifies sample representativeness by comparing the probability distributions of sample locations and the mapping area in the environmental covariate space. Spatial bias is mitigated by weighting the sample locations to maximize their representativeness. The approach is evaluated using species habit suitability mapping as a case study. The results show that the accuracy of predictive mapping using weighted sample locations is higher than using unweighted sample locations. A positive relationship between sample representativeness and mapping accuracy is also observed, suggesting that sample representativeness is a valid indicator of predictive mapping accuracy. This approach mitigates spatial bias in VGI to improve predictive mapping accuracy.     

基于R值和统计分布检验的年度地震危险区个数评估

针对年度地震危险区划定的个数问题开展了一些尝试性研究,旨在从统计学角度给出危险区个数的最佳估值,对年度地震预测实践给出一定参考意见。通过R值评分算法反推出年度地震危险区个数的估算公式,同时改进了传统聚类算法用于识别空间距离较近的地震“丛集区”,在此基础上分别统计中国大陆地区1950—2019年满足目标震级的年度地震发生个数、地震“丛集区”和“孤立发生地震”的个数之和,最后进行多种统计分布模型拟合与检验,结合置信区间确定危险区个数的合理上限。结果表明,由两种统计结果得出的年度危险区个数的参考值也略有差别,第一种基于中国大陆地区东部(107°E以东)M_S5.5、西部(107°E以西)M_S6.0以上地震年度发生率的危险区个数参考值为9个,适用于稍大震级的判定;第二种基于中国大陆地区年度M_S5.0以上地震“丛集区”识别结果的危险区个数参考值为13个,与目前中国地震台网中心使用的个数一致,对判定年度M_S5.0以上地震具有较好的应用实效。     

评价漓江健康的RIVPACS预测模型研究

RIVPACS类河流健康评价模型是广泛应用的河流健康评价工具.利用漓江流域48个样点的底栖动物和环境数据,按照建立RIVPACS模型的方法和步骤,开展预测模型试点研究.48个样点中有32个参照样点,随机选取其中27个用于模型构建.余下的5个参照样点、10个轻至中度干扰样点和6个严重干扰样点用于模型验证.首先通过Bray...