大洋间SST遥联与亚太夏季风异常的关系

用奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)方法,给出了四季年代际和年际时间尺度上北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)的显著遥相关.用SVD主模态时间系数构造了海温异常指数Ⅰ,分析了它们与同期亚太夏季风和我国东部夏季降水异常的关系.结果表明:两大洋间的SST遥联在年际、年代际时间尺度上都与亚太夏季风相关,其中,年际尺度的两大洋SST遥联与长江流域的降水存在显著相关.     

Microstructure measurements in natural waters: Methodology and applications

Modern approaches to microstructure data processing, including wavelet denoising, are discussed. The wavelet procedure is applied to small-scale shear signals before estimating the dissipation rate ε and to the temperature/density profiles used to calculate Thorpe scales. Microstructure data obtained on the Mediterranean shelf of Catalonia are used to illustrate various approaches to the Thorpe displacement calculations. It is suggested that the Weibull probability function is an appropriate model for the Thorpe scale distribution. Microstructure measurements from the upper layer of the Boadella reservoir (Catalonia, Spain) support this finding.A new analytical approximation for the 1D Panchev–Kesich spectrum is deduced and the results of ε computation are compared with spectral fitting by the widely used Nasmyth spectrum. Applying the Kraichnan spectral model to compute ε from temperature spectra in the convective-viscous sub-range is examined as an alternative to the Batchelor spectrum. Microstructure measurements taken in Lake Banyoles (Catalonia, Spain) and in the North Atlantic were used for spectral calculations.Statistical analysis of eddy K_b and thermal K_θ diffusivities measured on a shallow shelf of the Black Sea shows the importance of process-orientated domain averaging of the diffusivities in obtaining good correspondence between K_b and K_θ in active turbulent regions. In weakly turbulent, stratified interior layers, the averaged K_b and K_θ differ significantly, which may point to the inapplicability of isotropic formulae used for ε and temperature dissipation χ_θ estimates, as well as to a dependence of the mixing efficiency γ on the Richardson number or in some cases on regions of fossil turbulence.     

Determination and integration of appropriate spatial scales for river basin modelling

Appropriate spatial scales of dominant variables are determined and integrated into an appropriate model scale. This is done in the context of the impact of climate change on flooding in the River Meuse in Western Europe. The objective is achieved by using observed elevation, soil type, land use type and daily precipitation data from several sources and employing different relationships between scales, variable statistics and outputs. The appropriate spatial scale of a key variable is assumed to be equal to a fraction of the spatial correlation length of that variable. This fraction was determined on the basis of relationships between statistics and scale and an accepted error in the estimation of the statistic of 10%. This procedure resulted in an appropriate spatial scale for precipitation of about 20 km in an earlier study. The application to river basin variables revealed appropriate spatial scales for elevation, soil and land use of respectively 0·1, 5·3 and 3·3 km. The appropriate model scale is determined by multiplying the appropriate variable scales with their associated weights. The weights are based on SCS curve number method relationships between the peak discharge and some specific parameters like slope and curve number. The values of these parameters are dependent on the scale of each key variable. The resulting appropriate model scale is about 10 km, implying 225–250 model cells in an appropriate model of the Meuse basin meant to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding. The usefulness of the appropriateness procedure is in its ability to assess the appropriate scales of the individual key variables before model construction and integrate them in a balanced way into an appropriate model scale. Another use of the procedure is that it provides a framework for decisions about the reduction or expansion of data networks and needs. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于小波变换的大安地区年降水量变化特征

基于小波分析的方法,对吉林省大安地区1959—2007年的年降水量序列的变化特征进行了分析。经分析表明,大安地区年降水量在其计算时域内各时间尺度分布不均匀,具有明显的局部化特征;其中4～6 a尺度主要发生在1959—1969年和1984年之后,10～12 a尺度主要发生在1965—1999年,20～25a尺度在整个计算时域内均有发生。不同时间尺度下,降水量偏多、偏少交替变化也不相同。此外,分析结果显示该地区年降水量具有4 a、10 a和21 a左右的主周期,其中4 a周期为第一主周期。     

How does the bed surface impact low-magnitude bedload transport rates over gravel-bed rivers?

Bedload transport is a complex phenomenon that is not well understood, especially for poorly sorted sediment and low transport rates, which is what is typically found in alpine gravel-bed rivers. In this paper, the interaction between bedload rate, bed stability and flow is investigated using flume experiments. Significant differences in bedload rates were observed for experiments conducted on beds formed with the same gravel material but presenting diverse arrangements and bedforms. Tests were performed under regimes of low transport rate, which are mainly controlled by gravel-bed roughness. Different scales of roughness were identified using the statistical characteristics of detailed bed elevation measurements: grain, structure and large bedform scales. The role played by these different roughness scales in bedload dynamics was examined. For quasi-flat beds, bed stability was quantified using a combination of bed surface criteria describing grain and structure scales. It was found that bed stability affects the bedload rate directly and not only through its influence on the flow or on the incipient motion. For beds with large bedforms, the analysis of bedload dynamics also showed the importance of accounting for effective bed shear stress distributions. An empirical bedload model for low transport regimes was suggested. Compared with previous formulae developed for alpine rivers, this model accounts for bed stability and distribution of effective bed shear stress. It significantly improves the understanding of gravel dynamics over complex beds such as arranged beds or those with large bedforms. However, further tests are needed to use the model outside the range of conditions of this study. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TOPOGRAPHIC DEPENDENT HORIZONTAL LOCALIZATION SCALE SCHEME IN GRAPES-MESO HYBRID EN-3DVAR ASSIMILATION SYSTEM

Based on the GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR (Ensemble three-dimension hybrid data assimilation for Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction system) constructed by China Meteorological Administration, a 7-day simulation (from 10 July 2015 to 16 July 2015) is conducted for horizontal localization scales. 48h forecasts have been designed for each test, and seven different horizontal localization scales of 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500 and 1750 km are set. The 7-day simulation results show that the optimal horizontal localization scales over the Tibetan Plateau and the plain area are 1500 km and 1000 km, respectively. As a result, based on the GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR, a topography-dependent horizontal localization scale scheme (hereinafter referred to as GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS) has been constructed. The data assimilation and forecast experiments have been implemented by GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR, 3DVAR and GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS, and then the analysis and forecast field of these three systems are compared. The results show that the analysis field and forecast field within 30h of GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS are better than those of the other two data assimilation systems. Particularly in the analysis field, the root mean square error (RMSE) of u_wind and v_wind in the entire vertical levels is significantly less than that of the other two systems. The time series of total RMSE indicate, in the 6-30h forecast range, that the forecast result of En-3DVAR-TD-HLS is better than that of the other two systems, but the En-3DVAR and 3DVAR are equivalent in terms of their forecast skills. The 36-48h forecasts of three data assimilation systems have similar forecast skill.     

Fluid flow dynamics under location uncertainty

We present a derivation of a stochastic model of Navier Stokes equations that relies on a decomposition of the velocity fields into a differentiable drift component and a time uncorrelated uncertainty random term. This type of decomposition is reminiscent in spirit to the classical Reynolds decomposition. However, the random velocity fluctuations considered here are not differentiable with respect to time, and they must be handled through stochastic calculus. The dynamics associated with the differentiable drift component is derived from a stochastic version of the Reynolds transport theorem. It includes in its general form an uncertainty dependent subgrid bulk formula that cannot be immediately related to the usual Boussinesq eddy viscosity assumption constructed from thermal molecular agitation analogy. This formulation, emerging from uncertainties on the fluid parcels location, explains with another viewpoint some subgrid eddy diffusion models currently used in computational fluid dynamics or in geophysical sciences and paves the way for new large-scales flow modeling. We finally describe an applications of our formalism to the derivation of stochastic versions of the Shallow water equations or to the definition of reduced order dynamical systems.     

Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region,France

Abstract

Radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were assessed using reference values established by means of a geostatistical approach. The reference values were estimated from raingauge data using the block kriging technique, and the reference meshes were selected on the basis of the kriging estimation variance. Agreement between radar QPEs and reference rain amounts was shown to increase slightly with the space–time scales. The statistical distributions of the errors were modelled conditionally with respect to several factors using the GAMLSS approach. The conditional bias of the errors presents a complex structure that depends on the space–time scales and the considered geographical sub-domains, while the standard deviation of the errors has a more homogeneous behaviour. The estimation standard deviation of the reference rainfall and the standard deviation of the errors between radar and reference rainfall were found to have the same magnitude, indicating the limitations of the available network in terms of providing accurate reference values for the spatial scales considered (5–100 km²).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Kirstetter, P.-E., and Boudevillain, B., 2013. Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1300–1311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.827337     

Monitoring and predicting channel change in a free‐evolving,small Alpine river: Ridanna Creek (North East Italy)

The recent (25 years) morphodynamics of a proglacial reach of the Ridanna Creek, North‐East Italy, evolving in the absence of human constraints, has been investigated by means of an intensive field activity and of the analysis of aerial photographs. The study reach mostly displays a braided morphology, with sharp downstream variations of valley gradient, sediment size and formative conditions within the main channel. These discontinuities are associated with different processes of channel adjustment at different timescales, which have been quantified by coupling hydrological with morphological information. Several processes of channel change and variations in braiding intensity have been documented along the whole reach and highlight how a regular, weakly meandering main channel may significantly affect the morphodynamics of the braided network. A first attempt to predict the morphological instability of this main channel at the observed spatial scales through existing linear theories of curved river channels shows a good agreement with field observations. Finally, the complete hydro‐morphodynamical characterization of such an undisturbed alpine river reach can provide a relevant contribution to the definition of reference conditions for Alpine rivers required by the EU Water Framework Directive. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An uncertainty parameter of historical earthquakes – the record threshold

In this study we use the term record threshold of a historical earthquake for the seismic intensity (EMS92) in an area where a given percentage P of the serial sources of places have recorded the event as been noticed there. The record threshold is understood as a limiting measure, below which warranted statements about the intensity cannot be given. P defines the acceptable uncertainty and can be chosen according to the demands of the special task, for instance, 10%. It is shown that the record threshold of historical earthquakes is not the same as the human perceptibility threshold of earthquakes of the 20th Century. The historical sources have to be selected using criteria such as completeness and homogenity of data. This demand is approximately met by inquiries for sources covering an area greater than the expected felt area of the historical earthquake.The Friuli event of 25 January 1348 is presented as an example. It is compared with the well known Friuli event of 6 May 1976 in order to calibrate its intensity. The record threshold of the 1348 event was probably IV or less than IV EMS92 for P = 10%. The method, properly modified, can be applied to different cultural epochs and areas. This result throws a light on the possible error in determining the felt area of historical events.