不同时间尺度、季节的气温数据空间平稳特征及其对插值结果的影响

不同时间尺度、季节的气温数据表现出不同的空间平稳特征。为探讨分析空间平稳性对气温插值的影响规律,采用趋势线法对气温数据进行空间平稳性探索,并对比分析不同空间平稳性条件下,普通线性回归、普通克里格、回归克里格的气温插值精度及插值结果的空间分布特点。结果显示：冬季日均、月均气温与年均气温呈现空间非平稳,插值精度随时间序列的增长而提高,随着气温数据逐渐趋于稳定,精度提高的幅度逐渐下降;夏季日均、月均气温呈现空间平稳,随时间序列的增长,插值精度的提高并不显著;夏季日均气温各插值方法的插值精度普遍高于冬季日均气温。与普通克里格相比,回归克里格能有效提高空间非平稳数据的插值精度。时间序列的增长削弱了不同插值算法之间的插值精度差异和插值结果空间分布差异。     

非均质介质中地下水流动与溶质运移模拟——问题与挑战

对大空间尺度和长时间跨度的地下水流动及污染物质运移进行预测的需求, 使水文地质研究面临异乎寻常的挑战.这些需求来自于对核废料地质储放方法的安全性评价、地下水污染状况评价及其治理方案的选择.流动系统的非均质性是地下水流动及物质运移模拟中最主要的困难之一, 这种困难来自对非均质系统进行特征描述(通过原位观测实现)、概念化及模拟.评述了非均质介质中流动运移模拟的一些重要问题与挑战, 讨论了解决的途径.讨论的主题包括: 动力流动的沟道化, 示踪剂穿透曲线, 裂隙岩石中流体流动的多尺度, 观测的不同尺度, 模拟、预测与非均质性以及系统特征描述和预测性模拟的分析.      

A Queer Country? A case study of the politics of gay/lesbian belonging in an Australian country town

The present paper examines the complex politics of gay/lesbian belonging through a case study of Daylesford, Victoria, an Australian country town. It contributes to two research bodies: gay/lesbian rural geographies and the politics of belonging. Daylesford hosts ChillOut, Australia's largest rural gay/lesbian festival, which provides a telling context for investigating gay/lesbian belonging in rural Australia. We use qualitative data from the 2006 ChillOut Festival, including interviews with local residents, newspaper commentaries, and visitors’ surveys, to explore how Daylesford has been constructed, imagined, and experienced as a ‘unique’ site of gay/lesbian belonging in rural Australia. We find that ChillOut crucially contributes to its wider reputation as a gay-friendly country town, but also, we argue, to the contested nature of gay/lesbian belonging. This was most powerfully demonstrated by the local council's refusal to fly the gay-identified rainbow flag on the Town Hall during the 2006 Festival and its subsequent banning of the display of all festival flags from that key public building. Because ChillOut was the catalyst for this protocol, the resolution was viewed as homophobic. Indeed, the homophobic and heterosexist rhetoric that ensued in the Letters to the Editor section of the local newspaper revealed some residents’ underlying antagonism towards ChillOut and the local gay/lesbian community. Moreover, appealing to a shared ‘Australian identity’ and associated normative ‘family values’, these letter writers deployed a multi-scalar politics of belonging, where a sense of gay/lesbian belonging to Daylesford at the local scale was contested by the assertion of a ‘more meaningful’ national scale of allegiance fashioned by heteronormativity.     

S-57等深线数据的格式转换与集成

以中国海区501幅42种比例尺的等深线图为例,将其S-57格式转换为shp格式,并通过ArcGIS平台进行批处理合并。在先验知识和其他图层的参与下,分别制定不同的处理原则,实现所有比例尺的等深线在同一比例尺下显示。     

基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验

针对对流尺度天气系统的高度非线性特征和高分辨率模式预报结果存在时、空不确定性现象,以及当前邻域概率法主要考虑高分辨率预报结果的空间位移误差,而不能有效解决预报结果存在时间超前与滞后问题,将时间因素引入到邻域概率法中,结合一次强飑线过程进行对流尺度集合预报试验,并基于改进后的新型邻域概率法与分数技巧评分,对降水预报进行了不同时、空尺度的效果评估检验。结果表明:（1）邻域集合概率法和概率匹配平均法在极端降水的分数技巧评分远高于传统集合平均,弥补了集合平均对极端降水预报能力偏低的缺陷。（2）对于此类飑线过程的对流尺度天气系统而言,邻域半径为15—45 km的空间尺度能够改善降水位移误差的空间不确定性,并使其预报效果达到最优,其中15—30 km的邻域半径对于尺度更小的大量级降水事件预报能力更强。（3）对流尺度降水预报考虑时间尺度与降水强度存在着对应关系,不同时间尺度可以捕获到不同量级降水的时间不确定性。同时,时间尺度与空间尺度对于降水预报效果的影响是相互关联的。（4）改进的邻域概率法能够同时体现高分辨率模式预报结果在对流尺度降水事件上存在的时、空不确定性,实现了对流尺度降水在时、空尺度上的综合评估,并能为不同量级降水提供与其时、空尺度相匹配的概率预报结果。      

Autumn NDVI contributes more and more to vegetation improvement in the growing season across the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

Detecting changes in vegetation, distinguishing the persistence of changes, and seeking their causes during multiple periods are important to gaining a deeper understanding of vegetation dynamics. Using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) version NDVI_3g dataset in the Tibetan Plateau, the trends in the seasonal components of NDVI and their linkage with climatic factors were analyzed over 14 asymptotic periods of 18–31 years since 1982. Dynamic trends in vegetation experienced an obvious increase at regional scale, but the increases of vegetation activity mostly tended to stall or slow down as the studied time period was extended. At pixel scale, areas with significant browning significantly expanded over 14 periods for all seasons, but for significant greening significantly increased only in autumn. The changes of vegetation activity in spring were the most drastic among three seasons. Increased increments of NDVI in summer, spring, and autumn took turns being the main reason for the enhanced vegetation activity in the growing season in the nested 14 periods. Vegetation activity was mainly regulated by a thermal factor, and the dominant climatic drivers of vegetation growth varied across different seasons and regions. We speculate that the increase of NDVI will continue but the increments will decline in all seasons except autumn.     

Reducing the non-axisymmetry of a planetary dynamo and an application to saturn

Abstract

If a conducting fluid shell is undergoing spin-axisymmetric differential rotation and overlies the dynamo generating region of a planet then it is capable of greatly reducing the non-spin-axisymmetric components of the generated field, provided the appropriate magnetic Reynolds number is large. The model, closely related to the electromagnetic skin effect, is quantified and applied to Saturn. The observed small dipole tilt (～ 1°) of Saturn's magnetic field can be explained because of the presence of a stably stratified conducting layer overlying the dynamo region. This layer is a predicted consequence of the thermal evolution, arises because of the limited solubility of helium in metallic hydrogen (Stevenson, 1980), and appears to be required by the Voyager infrared observations indicating depletion of helium from Saturn's atmosphere. The much larger dipole tilt angles of Jupiter and the Earth indicate the absence of any such stable, differentially rotating layer with a large magnetic Reynolds number.     

地质灾害与不同尺度降雨时空分布关系

降雨是地质灾害最重要的诱发因素之一,开展地质灾害与不同尺度降雨的时空分布研究,分析降雨诱发地质灾害的特点规律,对于提升地质灾害区域预警水平和防灾减灾实践具有重要意义。本文以2006～2007年汛期地质灾害的实际发生情况为例,通过统计分析方法,对区域地质灾害与年降雨量、月降雨量、月暴雨日数、典型降雨过程之间的时空分布关系开展系统分析,研究表明:降雨是群发型地质灾害发生的重要诱发因素,地质灾害的发育密度与年均雨量成正比,地质灾害发育密度最大的区域,其年均雨量最大;地质灾害分布与月降雨量、月暴雨日数的分布总体上具备一定的对应关系,但并不是完全对应的,主要受到典型强降雨过程的落区控制;在地质灾害多发区出现典型强降雨过程时,地质灾害群发。     

喀斯特流域径流量时序演变特征分析——以贵州省为例

以贵阳水文站近45年年径流量序列为例,利用Mo r let 小波变换对喀斯特流域径流量时序演变特性进行了分析预测。结果表明: ( 1)贵阳水文站年径流主要存在4a和25a 两个时间尺度的周期变化,在这两种时间尺度下,径流演变呈现出较明显的丰、枯交替振荡。( 2) 2000年以后的10a左右,年径流量有由丰转为枯、逐步下降的趋势。( 3)年平均径流量的丰、枯周期变化主要受年平均降水量的影响;人类活动对喀斯特流域年径流量有增加和减小两方面的影响,总体上会使径流量略有增加。      

构造应力场转换的成矿地球化学响应

以剪切带型金矿为例,基于对中国东部胶东西北部地区及其典型金矿田、金矿床构造应力场与成矿地球化学场的详细研究结果,初步阐释了它们在多重时-空间尺度上的耦合关系。区域尺度上,应力极值区不利于成矿,金矿床就位于应力梯级带,尤其是不同方向应力梯级带的交汇部位。矿田尺度上,成矿物质有从应力高值区向低值区运移的趋势,成矿主期应力梯度的增大有利于成矿元素进一步浓集,应力梯级的强烈变化地段(或时段)往往形成金属元素的大量堆积。矿床尺度上,成矿物质的运移受不同方向剪应力梯级带的叠加影响,金属元素就位于NE和NW向应力梯级带交汇部位缓坡带一侧的次级梯级带之上。多重时-空尺度成矿动力学的深入研究,将可能揭示出这种非线性效应的丰富内涵。