INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT-SCALE ERRORS INTERACTIONS ON ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF REGIONAL NWP MODEL

In the previous study, the influences of introducing larger- and smaller-scale errors on the background error covariances estimated at the given scales were investigated, respectively. This study used the covariances obtained in the previous study in the data assimilation and model forecast system based on three-dimensional variational method and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In this study, analyses and forecasts from this system with different covariances for a period of one month were compared, and the causes for differing results were presented. The variations of analysis increments with different-scale errors are consistent with those of variances and correlations of background errors that were reported in the previous paper. In particular, the introduction of smaller-scale errors leads to greater amplitudes in analysis increments for medium-scale wind at the heights of both high- and low-level jets. Temperature and humidity analysis increments are greater at the corresponding scales at the middle- and upper-levels. These analysis increments could improve the intensity of the jet-convection system that includes jets at different levels and the coupling between them that is associated with latent heat release. These changes in analyses will contribute to more accurate wind and temperature forecasts in the corresponding areas. When smaller-scale errors are included, humidity analysis increments are significantly enhanced at large scales and lower levels, to moisten southern analyses. Thus, dry bias can be corrected, which will improve humidity forecasts. Moreover, the inclusion of larger- (smaller-) scale errors will be beneficial for the accuracy of forecasts of heavy (light) precipitation at large (small) scales because of the amplification (diminution) of the intensity and area in precipitation forecasts.     

LOD技术与制图综合在多尺度地图适时显示中的应用研究

多尺度地图适时显示是电子地图可视化过程中的瓶颈问题,在这一领域人们已经探索出不少行之有效的方法。本文将一种三维场景复杂程度控制技术———LOD技术,结合传统的制图综合技术,用于电子地图可视化。通过对地理要素分类建立LOD模型,其中地理要素的分类方法,以及LOD层次参数的设定,综合算法的选取等提出一些理论依据,旨在为电子地图可视化提供一个标准和数学依据。并已通过《深圳市龙岗电子地图集》制作项目的实践,初步实践了这一技术结合。     

The origin and evolution of the Klondike goldfields, Yukon, Canada

The world famous Klondike goldfields are located in the unglaciated part of west-central Yukon, Canada. Since their discovery over 100 years ago, they have produced an estimated 311 tonnes of gold, primarily from bench and creek placers that are fluvial in origin and range from Pliocene to Holocene in age. Historically, the placers are classified into three levels of gravel with four main units. These include the high-level White Channel Gravel (Pliocene), presently the most important gold-bearing unit, which sits nonconformably on an erosional bedrock surface (i.e., the ‘White Channel strath’) and is overlain and interbedded with the glaciofluvial Klondike Gravel (Pliocene); the intermediate-level gravel (Pleistocene), the least important economically; and the low-level gravel (Pleistocene–Holocene), historically the most important gold-bearing unit, but it has been mined three or four times now. The goldfields originated from the weathering and erosion of early Cretaceous, discordant mesothermal quartz veins, and the light grey color of the matrix of the White Channel Gravel is due mainly to weathering and diagenetic alteration by groundwater flow. The concentration of placer gold is related to a hierarchy of physical scales: at the lithofacies scale (metres), bed roughness determined sites of gold deposition; at the element scale (tens of metres), gravel bars were preferentially enriched in gold; at the reach scale (hundreds of metres), stream gradient was an important factor; at the system scale (hundreds of km), braided river environments transported large amounts of gold; and at the sequence scale (thousands of km), economic placers formed initially in the high-level White Channel Gravel and later in the intermediate-level and low-level gravel. The White Channel strath is interpreted as an erosional ‘tectonic’ terrace that formed during isostatic uplift and under conditions of dynamic equilibrium. The high-level White Channel Gravel and Klondike Gravel are interpreted as a depositional ‘climatic’ terrace that formed during a reversal in the tectonically induced downcutting, which is attributed to the initial and most extensive of the pre-Reid glaciations (3 Ma) in the Yukon. The intermediate-level gravel is interpreted as minor erosional ‘complex response’ terraces that formed during static equilibrium when there were pauses in valley-floor degradation, which are attributed to the subsequent and less extensive pre-Reid glaciations. The low-level gravel formed also during valley-floor degradation and may represent a return to dynamic equilibrium conditions. Hence, the dominant forcing mechanisms controlling the evolution of the goldfields were isostatically compensated exhumation and climatic change related to the repeated glaciation of the Yukon. In addition, the lowering of baselevel from high-level, to intermediate-level and finally to low-level gravel was accompanied by a decrease in accommodation space (as indicated by a decrease in gravel thickness), which resulted in an increase in the concentration of the placer gold.     

长江中下游地区类寒潮发生频次的变化特征分析

本文采用中国国家气候中心提供的1957-2008年中国753个台站逐日13温度资料,挑选出长江中下游地区(27.5°～32.5°N、112°～123°E)的51个测站,对该地区类寒潮发生频次特征进行分析,得出主要结论:长江中下游地区类寒潮的发生随着全球变暖的气候趋势,总体频次减少.有明显的年代际特征,20世纪60-80年代,类寒潮发生频次逐渐减少,90年代类寒潮又略增多,1973年前后出现突变.长江中下游地区主要以5年和14年信号周期变化,长江中下游地区类寒潮发生频次最高的月份分别为每年3月和11月,但存在明显的年际差异,年际差异最大的区域在皖南、赣北和浙西.     

年代际气候低频变率诊断研究进展

对近十年年代际气候低为率的诊断研究作了综合评述,指出年代际及以上尺度的变率可能就是气候系统数十年尺度低频振荡或气候基本态的自然表征,控制着更小时间尺度ＥＮＳＯ变率,对这一问题的深入研究不公有助于提高气候变率的认识,而且对检测人为因素在全球变暖中的相对贡献也具有重要的意义。     

基于小波变换的北京地区1724～2009年降水量多尺度分析

基于小波分析方法,对1724~2009年北京气象站年降水量序列的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,北京地区年降水量在其计算时域内各时间尺度分布不均匀,具有明显的局部化特征;其中,19~23a的时间尺度,震荡中心分别在1889年和1979年;35~37a左右的时间尺度主要发生在1920~1928年、1950~1960年和1983~1991年;83~87a的时间尺度在整个计算时域上均有发生,1769~1859年间表现明显。分析结果显示北京地区年降水量具有21a、35a和86a左右的主周期,其中86a左右的周期振荡最强,为第一主周期。计算的趋势表明,未来10余年北京仍属于降水偏少的时期。     

Chemical versus Temporal Controls on the Evolution of Tholeiitic and Calc-alkaline Magmas at Two Volcanoes in the Alaska-Aleutian Arc

The Alaska–Aleutian island arc is well known for eruptingboth tholeiitic and calc-alkaline magmas. To investigate therelative roles of chemical and temporal controls in generatingthese contrasting liquid lines of descent we have undertakena detailed study of tholeiitic lavas from Akutan volcano inthe oceanic Aleutian arc and calc-alkaline products from Aniakchakvolcano on the continental Alaskan Peninsula. The differencesdo not appear to be linked to parental magma composition. TheAkutan lavas can be explained by closed-system magmatic evolution,whereas curvilinear trace element trends and a large range in⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope ratios in the Aniakchak data appear to requirethe combined effects of fractional crystallization, assimilationand magma mixing. Both magmatic suites preserve a similar rangein ²²⁶Ra–²³⁰Th disequilibria, which suggests that thetime scale of crustal residence of magmas beneath both thesevolcanoes was similar, and of the order of several thousandyears. This is consistent with numerical estimates of the timescales for crystallization caused by cooling in convecting crustalmagma chambers. During that time interval the tholeiitic Akutanmagmas underwent restricted, closed-system, compositional evolution.In contrast, the calc-alkaline magmas beneath Aniakchak volcanounderwent significant open-system compositional evolution. Combiningthese results with data from other studies we suggest that differentiationis faster in calc-alkaline and potassic magma series than intholeiitic series, owing to a combination of greater extentsof assimilation, magma mixing and cooling. KEY WORDS: uranium-series; Aleutian arc; magma differentiation; time scales     

额尔古纳河流域近50年水文气象要素变化分析

应用预置白处理后的Mann—Kendall非参数检验方法及小波分析方法,分析了额尔古纳河流域20个水文气象站点近50年水文气象要素(气温、降水和径流)的变化趋势以及典型站点降雨量、径流量的多时间尺度特征。同时应用聚类分析方法推算了径流量序列的突变点。结果表明,该区域气温呈现明显升高的趋势,其中海拉尔站可能由于城市化进程的影响气温升高幅度最大。流域年降水总量变化趋势不显著,但某些月份降水量存在明显增加或者减小的趋势,其中显著增加的月份为11、12和1月,显著减小的月份为7、8月;降水趋势显著变化的站点主要分布在该流域的呼伦湖水系和海拉尔河水系。流域年径流量有减少趋势但不显著,然而4、5月份大多数站点径流量出现显著减少趋势。小波分析表明,典型站点年降水量存在25a左右的主周期,年径流量存在20～26a的主周期。各个站点径流量序列的显著跳跃点大都发生在1999年,这与通过小波分析得出的有关突变点的结论相一致。     

明渠湍流涡运动尺度分布特性

为了解明渠湍流涡运动尺度沿水深的分布特征,使用高精度粒子图像测速法水槽试验系统测量充分发展的明渠湍流,利用改进后的功率谱分析方法,对明渠湍流涡运动尺度沿水深分布、上升流、下扫流和平均涡量等进行了分析。结果表明:明渠湍流涡运动尺度大小沿水深增加呈先增大后减小;沿水深增加下扫流比上升流更容易发生;各自水深的顺向涡涡量大于逆向涡涡量,在近壁区平均涡量最大;明渠湍流近壁区产生涡量大、尺度小的涡结构,沿水深增加,涡尺度发展变大,但受水面区下扫流抑制,涡尺度又变小。     

建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化的小波分析

文章以小波诊断技术为基础,对建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化进行了多时间尺度分析。研究表明,建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化具有明显的3年左右、9年左右和17年左右的特征时间尺度和相应的周期性变化特征;并且特征时间尺度近年来逐渐缩短,即成灾面积的变化渐趋频繁。根据这几个特征时间尺度上小波系数的演变趋势发现,在未来几年内,中国洪涝成灾面积呈现下降的总体趋势。根据小波方差分析发现中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化具有显著的3年、9年和17年的主要周期,并以9年和17年的周期尤为显著;同时,根据功率谱的比较分析同样发现,中国洪涝灾害成灾面积同样存在着3年左右、7~9年和17年的主要周期。