Effect of spatial and temporal scales on habitat suitability modeling: A case study of Ommastrephes bartramii in the northwest pacific ocean

Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology, and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution. The objective of this study is to evaluate the roles of spatio-temporal scales in habitat suitability modeling, with the western stock of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) in the northwest Pacific Ocean as an example. In this study, the fishery-dependent data from the Chinese Mainland Squid Jigging Technical Group and sea surface temperature(SST) from remote sensing during August to October of 2003–2008 were used. We evaluated the differences in a habitat suitability index model resulting from aggregating data with 36 different spatial scales with a combination of three latitude scales(0.5°, 1° and 2°), four longitude scales(0.5°, 1°, 2° and 4°), and three temporal scales(week, fortnight, and month). The coefficients of variation(CV) of the weekly, biweekly and monthly suitability index(SI) were compared to determine which temporal and spatial scales of SI model are more precise. This study shows that the optimal temporal and spatial scales with the lowest CV are month, and 0.5° latitude and 0.5° longitude for O. bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This suitability index model developed with an optimal scale can be cost-effective in improving forecasting fishing ground and requires no excessive sampling efforts. We suggest that the uncertainty associated with spatial and temporal scales used in data aggregations needs to be considered in habitat suitability modeling.     

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Variations in streamflows of five tributaries of the Poyang Lake basin, China, because of the influence of human activities and climate change were evaluated using the Australia Water Balance Model and multivariate regression. Results indicated that multiple regression models were appropriate with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the current month, and precipitation of the last month as explanatory variables. The NASH coefficient for the Australia Water Balance Model was larger than 0.842, indicating satisfactory simulation of streamflow of the Poyang Lake basin. Comparison indicated that the sensitivity method could not exclude the benchmark‐period human influence, and the human influence on streamflow changes was overestimated. Generally, contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow changes were 73.2% and 26.8% respectively. However, human‐induced and climate‐induced influences on streamflow were different in different river basins. Specifically, climate change was found to be the major driving factor for the increase of streamflow within the Rao, Xin, and Gan River basins; however, human activity was the principal driving factor for the increase of streamflow of the Xiu River basin and also for the decrease of streamflow of the Fu River basin. Meanwhile, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. At the annual time scale, the increase of streamflow was largely because of climate change and human activities during the 1970s–1990s and the decrease of streamflow during the 2000s. At the seasonal scale, climate change was the main factor behind the increase of streamflow in the spring and summer season. Human activities increase the streamflow in autumn and winter, but decrease the streamflow in spring. At the monthly scale, different influences of climate change and human activities were detected. Climate change was the main factor behind the decrease of streamflow during May to June and human activities behind the decrease of streamflow during February to May. Results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for basin‐scale water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns of spatial variation of nutrient content,epiphyte load and shoot size of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows (Mediterranean Sea)

Knowledge of patterns of spatial variability of vegetative development, epiphyte load and nutrient availability in seagrass meadows is essential for the adequate design of research and environmental monitoring programmes. Differences in shoot size, epiphyte load and nutrient content of leaves and epiphytes of the Mediterranean endemic seagrass Posidonia oceanica at spatial scales ranging from metres to hundreds of metres are evaluated using a hierarchical nested sampling design. The size and epiphyte load of P. oceanica shoots and the nitrogen and phosphorus content of leaves and epiphytes were different in most of the spatial scales considered. Sampling efforts concentrated at the metre scale incorporated most of the variability in size, epiphyte load and nutrient content of the leaves and epiphytes of P. oceanica shoots. Epiphyte load showed no correlation with nutrient content in the epiphytes or in the leaves. However, epiphyte load and shoot size were negatively correlated, which suggests that light penetration in the canopy may be a main determinant of epiphyte load.     

Invasion of Sargassum muticum in intertidal rockpools: Patterns along the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula

Spatial patterns of non-indigenous species show scale-dependent properties. Sargassum muticum is an invasive macroalga widely distributed along the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula. Despite being quite abundant from Norway to South Portugal, there is little information about its patterns of distribution, particularly at a large spatial scale (i.e. thousands of kilometres). Here, we examined the spatial variation in the invasion success of S. muticum from rockpools at multiple spatial scales using a hierarchical design. In addition, we analysed how the richness of native assemblages was related to its invasion success and how this relationship changed over different scales. Most of the variation in the invasion success was found at the smallest scales of pool and plot. Furthermore, the invasibility of native macroalgal assemblages was related to the native species richness, but causes that determined invasion success could not be separated from the effects provoked by the invader. Results suggest that small-scale (centimetres to metres) processes contribute considerably to the heterogeneity of S. muticum invasion success.     

1901-2012年中国西北地区东部多时间尺度干旱特征

以干旱的多时间尺度特征出发,利用CRU最新数据,计算了考虑降水和气温双因子影响的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),并与标准化降水指数(SPI)进行对比,分析中国西北地区东部1901-2012年不同时间尺度的干旱特征。本文不仅对百年来CRU资料的可靠性进行检验,而且对SPEI在西北地区东部的适应性进行讨论。结果表明:CRU资料可靠性较好,但由于CRU资料本身的属性,1920年以前资料的可靠性不确定。从干旱事件的发生强度及干旱范围分析,SPEI在西北地区东部具有较好的适用性。SPEI与SPI在不同时间尺度下的波动变化一致,短时间尺度主要表现年内或季节特征,长时间尺度则侧重表现年际、年代际特征。将研究区分为高原东北区和陕南区进行分析,1901-2012年高原东北区有4个干期,陕南区有5个干期。针对温度变化对西北地区东部干旱的影响及与SPI对比表明,高温对干旱的贡献不容忽视。     

Tropical cyclones and polar lows: Velocity,size, and energy scales,and relation to the 26°C cyclone origin criteria

The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical cyclones (TC) and polar lows (PL) by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating, and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms: (1) as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter l_c for rotating fluids convection, and (2) as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and l_c, we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 10¹⁸-10¹⁹ J. It will be shown that wind of 33 m s^-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere are about 700 W m^-2 for a TC and 1700 W m^-2 for a PL, in association with the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26^oC as a criterion for TC origin. The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5--6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or even half a day, for a TC reaching 15--18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane of T^s and ΔT=T_s-T_a to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, T_a is the atmospheric temperature at the height z=10 m. A PL should have ΔT>20^oC in accordance with the observations and numerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times.     

Dependence of the accuracy of precipitation and cloud simulation on temporal and spatial scales

Precipitation and associated cloud hydrometeors have large temporal and spatial variability, which makes accurate quantitative precipitation forecasting difficult. Thus, dependence of accurate precipitation and associated cloud simulation on temporal and spatial scales becomes an important issue. We report a cloud-resolving modeling analysis on this issue by comparing the control experiment with experiments perturbed by initial temperature, water vapor, and cloud conditions. The simulation is considered to be accurate only if the root-mean-squared difference between the perturbation experiments and the control experiment is smaller than the standard deviation. The analysis may suggest that accurate precipitation and cloud simulations cannot be obtained on both fine temporal and spatial scales simultaneously, which limits quantitative precipitation forecasting. The accurate simulation of water vapor convergence could lead to accurate precipitation and cloud simulations on daily time scales, but it may not be beneficial to precipitation and cloud simulations on hourly time scales due to the dominance of cloud processes.     

天气业务的现代化发展

在回顾天气业务60年来的发展历程,总结天气业务发展经验的基础上,指出天气业务的现代化发展是以天气预报的精细化为基本特征,以提高精细化预报基础上的预报准确率为根本要求。天气业务60年的实践表明,天气业务的现代化发展得益于:(1)大气科学理论的发展;(2)现代气象科技的进步;(3)气象业务体系的完善;(4)气象服务需求的牵引。面向现代天气业务的发展,提出了需要把握的4个要点问题:(1)数值预报技术的核心作用;(2)专业化的预报业务技术体系;(3)集约化的预报业务流程;(4)专家型的预报员队伍等。这些应成为发展现代天气业务的重点任务。     

半干旱草原型流域不同时间尺度降水特征分析

基于锡林浩特气象站1960-2015年逐日降水数据,运用M-K法、R/S 法和Morlet 小波法,分析了半干旱草原型流域--锡林河流域近56a不同时间尺度下降水趋势及突变特征、未来变化趋势、降水周期规律的变化情况。结果表明：近56a来锡林河流域年降水量呈下降的趋势,在1974、1980、1989年和1998年发生过4次突变,存在28a的主周期变化。夏季降水特征和年降水特征基本一致,冬季降水量呈显著上升的趋势。汛期8月份降水量呈显著下降的趋势,并在1998年左右发生突变,降水第一主周期在12a处,非汛期11和12月份降水量都呈显著上升的趋势,其中,12月份降水在2000 年左右发生显著突变,这两个月份降水的第一主周期分别是30a和9a。不同时间尺度下降水序列的Hurst指数均>0.5,说明流域降水趋势具有持续性,未来降水趋势与过去保持一致。     

土地利用/土地覆被变化研究:寻求新的综合途径

土地利用/土地覆被变化是很复杂的现象,参与该项目的研究人员要避免“瞎子摸大象”那样的片面性,必须寻求新的综合研究途径。为此,不能简单地沿袭传统土地利用研究的思路和方法,需要不断提出新的研究论题;对土地利用变化驱动力必须有一种普遍的、综合的认识;需要将多个案例研究联结为一个可代表区域空间异质性的网络,需要作多空间尺度的研究,从而将地方尺度和区域尺度的土地覆被动态联系起来;需要发展新的研究方法,并将从农户调查到遥感数据的各种信息综合起来;尤其需要形成关于土地利用/土地覆被变化的综合科学理论框架