2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

针对 2 0 0 3年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法 ,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上 ,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 :水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应 ,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外 ,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题 ,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品 ,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验 ,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明 :在目前天气预报水平条件下 ,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的 ,能够延长洪水预报的预见期 ;而且 ,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势 ,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报 ,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。     

从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

基于拉格朗日插值法修正地形影响的分布式降水模型研究

降水量一直是进行水文分析计算的输入项，对其分布状况的模拟直接影响水文分析成果精度。降水中心位置及其中心降水量对暴雨分析尤为重要，而目前尚未见对降水中心位置方面的模型研究。在对目前国内外降水模型分析的基础上，根据天气系统降水如不受地形影响其降水量等值线在平面上的分布近似为一组同心椭圆这一原理，建立了一种能够模拟次降水过程的降水中心位置及其中心降水量的新型分布式降水数学模型，并对其进行地形影响因素修正。由于模型建立原理简单，易于实现对流域未设站研究点的实时降水量估计，同时由于模型能够指明降水中心位置及其中心降水量，因此在流域暴雨分析和洪水预报中具有实用价值。模型经实践检验具有较高精度。     

洪山泉流量动态系统分析

为查明洪山泉域的开采程度,在前人研究基础上,建立了现阶段泉流量-降雨量的线性模拟模型。通过对模型的系统辨识,对系统的"慢时变"现象作出了合理解释,并发现系统在1994年以后发生了"快时变",说明开采量从1995年开始迅猛增加。同时,由多年来泉流量序列的自相关分析,发现其宏观周期到2000年基本保持不变,说明虽然第二输入(即人为开采量)对该系统的作用已不可忽略,但尚未达到足以改变其宏观频率的程度。     

矿产品供需关系经济分析

矿产品供需关系决定矿产品价格的市场走向，运用供需二维图解可以预测矿产品供需动态，给出精确的供需二维图要注意资源增加与减少、代用材料和新产品开发等因素，指出精心积累矿产品供需资料，仔细观察供需关系，可以预测矿产品价格和市场走向。     

GIS Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Water Systems in Greater Toronto Area, Canada

Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defmed from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into “drainage-area dependent“ and “drainage-area independent“ flow components by two-step “frequency“ and “spatial“ analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages. Various statistics (cross- and auto-correlation coefficients, fractal R/S exponent) were used in conjunction with GIS to demonstrate the influence of land types, topography and geometry of drainage basins on short- and long-term persistence of river flows as well as responding time to precipitation events. The current study has provided not only insight in understanding the interaction of water systems in the GTA, but also a base for further establishment of an on-line GIS system for predicting spatial-temporal changes of river flow and groundwater level in the GTA.     

Comparisons on seasonal and annual variations of δ~(18)O in precipitation

interpretationofpaleoclimaticrecordsinicecore(Dansgaardetal.,1969;Rozanskietal.,1997;Yao,1999;Thompsonetal.,2000).SincethefirstdeepicecorewasdrilledinGreenlandin1966(Dansgaardetal.,1969),hundredsoficecoreswereobtainedsuccessivelyfromicesheetsinAntarcticaandArctic,andmountainglaciersatmid-highlatitudes,fundedbynumerousresearchprogramsonglobalclimateandenvironmentalchange.Theseicecoresprovideuniqueandvaluablefirst-handinformationinrecoveringglobalpaleoenvironmentalrecordsandforecastingfuturecl…     

导航卫星自主定轨的算法研究及模拟结果

讨论了利用卫星-卫星间的距离观测值建立导航卫星系统自主定轨的数学方法，并用GPS星座模拟星间观测值，采用滤波算法计算卫星的状态参数。模拟结果表明，在空间测距精度一定的情况下，自主定轨精度能高于GPS广播星历，因而能较精确地维持卫星系统的坐标框架。     

Modeling Spatially and Temporally Complex Land‐Cover Change: The Case of Western Honduras*

This article presents an econometric analysis of land‐cover change in western Honduras. Ground‐truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996 net reforestation occurred in the 1,015‐km² study region. While some reforestation can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of reforestation greatly exceeds that of previously clear‐cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987 and 1996. Thus, the observed land‐cover changes represent a complex mosaic of changing land‐use patterns across time and space. The analysis contributes to the literature on land‐cover change modeling in that: (1) it compares two econometric approaches to capture complex and often bidirectional changes in land cover from 1987 to 1996 as a function of agricultural suitability and transportation costs, and (2) it addresses techniques to identify and correct for spatial autocorrelation in a categorical regression framework.     

Water Quality Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes in Southeastern Pennsylvania*

This study investigates potential changes in nitrogen and phosphorus loads under a warmer and wetter climate, urban growth, and combined changes in the Conestoga River Basin and its five subbasins in southeastern Pennsylvania. A GIS‐based hydrochemical model was employed for assessing the sensitivity of the basins to the projected changes in 2030. Under the HadCM2 climate change scenario, mean annual nitrogen and phosphorus loads are expected to increase, with great increases in spring but slight decreases in fall primarily because of changes in monthly precipitation. When climate change and urbanization occur concurrently, mean annual nitrogen loads further increase by 50% in the most urbanizing subbasin. Point source nitrogen control could mitigate negative effects of climate and land use changes, reducing mean annual nitrogen loads to the contemporary baseline level.