The need for judgement in geotechnical reliability studies

ABSTRACT

A core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability.     

能动断层的概念及其演化

对能动断层概念史的研究,可以揭示出能动断层的核心意义以及与活动断层的区别和联系。能动断层的鉴定以确定未来地表或近地表断层错断可能性为目的,与地震地面运动相比是一种不可设计的厂址评价要素。因此,在厂址适宜性评价中意义重大。     

地震安全性评价工程师资格考试大纲已审定通过

把美国西部地区作为参考区,采用我国地震动参数区划图工作时所使用的美国西部地区强震资料建立参考区水平向基岩短周期加速度反应谱衰减关系;采用美国南加州地区数字宽频带记录建立参考区水平向基岩长周期加速度反应谱衰减关系。与由丰富的等震线资料统计得出的我国东部地区和西部地区的地震烈度衰减关系一起,用转换方法分别得到了我国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系。对该衰减关系在重大工程地震安全性评价工作中的应用提出了建议。     

数字强震仪在大坝安全监测中的应用研究

介绍了一种新型的数字强震仪（GDQJ-2型数字强震仪）,该强震仪以其独特的结构原理和技术性能, 在强震观测、大坝安全监测等地震领域得到广泛的应用.介绍了大坝安全监测的重要意义以及安全监测设备中地震监测设备的进展,介绍了GDQJ-2型数字强震仪的结构原理、技术指标以及在大坝安全监测中的应用,为大坝安全规范设计提出直接依据.     

基于WebGIS的地震应急快速反应系统设计与实现

根据镇江地震地质情况及防震减灾工作实际,通过需求分析及系统整体设计,建立基于WebGIS的地震信息数据库管理系统。系统采用Oracle数据库、JavaScript语言、Tomcat网站服务器,开发了具有地方特色的地震应急处置快速反应系统,系统可实现震后快速评估、辅助决策、震后趋势分析、震后应急资料产出等功能。实际应用表明,该系统达到了低成本、高效率的预期目标。     

高边坡桥墩倾斜机理分析与安全性评价

高陡边坡桥墩同时承受上部结构传递的竖向荷载和桩周土体的侧向压力,墩柱受力性能复杂,易出现病害,影响桥梁安全。结合某高速公路桥墩倾斜的工程实例,对高陡边坡桥墩倾斜的机理进行分析,并对倾斜桥墩的安全性能进行评价。通过考虑边坡土体和桥墩的相互作用,采用数值方法对高陡边坡桥墩的受力特征进行研究,分析了墩柱倾斜和开裂的机理,并基于不同荷载下墩柱的内力组合,对墩柱的承载力进行评定。结果表明,边坡潜在滑移面受扰动后产生的坡体推力是引起墩柱倾斜的主要原因,坡体推力与车辆荷载及汽车制动力组合后,桥墩的承载力将不能满足设计要求。     

基于Bishop条分法的多点多向地震动作用下边坡稳定性分析

以人工合成的多点、多向地震加速度时程作为地震动输入,基于Bishop条分法推导了地震边坡稳定安全系数的表达公式。在此基础上,针对某一具体算例,分析了不同地震峰值加速度下的不同坡高边坡稳定安全系数的变化规律,并与单点、单向地震动输入的结果进行了对比。结果表明,对于本文给出的算例,在坡高与地震峰值加速度都相同的条件下,多点、多向地震作用下的边坡安全系数要大于单点、单向作用下的安全系数;当坡高小于30 m、地震峰值加速度小于0.1 g时,多点、多向地震动作用下的边坡安全系数与单点、单向相差不大;当坡高大于30 m、地震峰值加速度大于0.1 g时,多点、多向地震动作用下的边坡安全系数相对单点、单向要小36%以上,此时边坡稳定性评价必须考虑地震动的多点、多向特性。     

黑河流域水资源生态环境安全问题研究

对黑河流域水文资料进行分析计算发现, 由于有冰川补给流域水资源比较稳定, 最枯年和最丰年水资源量之比仅为1:2, 这在北方河流中是非常罕见的。多年平均水资源量为32.31亿m³·a^-1, 人均水资源量为1689m³·a^-1, 略低于国际上公认的人均水资源安全警戒线1000~1700m³·a^-1的上限。根据黑河流域水资源反复转化多次重复利用的特点, 扣除7.5亿m³·a^-1的生态用水量, 结合流域正在执行的综合整治和节水措施的推广, 目前水资源状况是安全的, 下游生态环境的危机可以通过水资源统一调配来解决。依据天然出山水资源变化和水土资源开发利用规模及额济纳旗生态环境状况, 在不增加土地灌溉规模并适当采取节水措施的前提下, 可以确定32.31亿m³·a^-1的天然来水量为流域水资源安全临界线, 28亿m³·a^-1的天然来水量为流域水资源安全警戒线。     

Geographical Environment for the Safe Production of Food

Food is essential for human survival, but harmful, toxic substances in food damage and threaten human health. Food production is inseparable from the place where the food is produced; that is, from the geographical environment that consists of natural and human environments, two parts of a unified whole. China’s territory is vast and its geographical environment is complex and diverse. Food production patterns in different parts of the country vary significantly, as do local socio-economic and cultural conditions. Such differences have an enormous impact on food safety. Based on the geographical area where food is produced in China, this paper reveals the main environmental problems arising from industrial and agricultural production activities, and related risks for food safety and health. In concluding, we make some recommendations for countermeasures. The main food safety related environmental problems include the excessive application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides; high background levels of heavy metals; discharge of wastewater and heavy metals; and excessive use of additives and antibiotics in livestock and poultry breeding and aquatic products. All these issues can lead to huge risks for food safety and thus health. These are not simply scientific issues, but also political, economic and legal issues, as well as social problems that differ from region to region. Therefore, comprehensive studies are needed to identify risks to food safety and health hazards in different areas. Systematic and comprehensive risk assessments of health problems caused by changing ecosystems, environmental pollution, nutrition problems and lifestyle, and especially comprehensive risk assessments of regional environmental changes and health risks are needed. Measures based on an understanding of local conditions must be put forward to protect food safety and health, to strengthen multi-sectoral management, and to improve environmental quality     

Big Data Resource Planning for Food Safety: a Preliminary Exploration of the “Environment,Food and Health” Information Chain

Environmental pollution, food safety and health are closely linked. A key challenge in addressing the problem of food safety and protecting public health is building an integrated knowledge base to inform policy and strengthen governance. This requires breaking down the trans-departmental information barrier across the environment, food and health domains to ensure the effective flow of data and the efficient utilization of resources, and facilitate the collaborative governance of food safety. Achieving this will be crucial for the development of health and medical care in China in the era of big data. Currently, the information resources commanded by various departments are incomplete and fragmented. Data resources are also organized in vertical silos and there is a lack of data sharing within and across policy streams. To provide the basis for more effective integrated collection and analysis of data in future, this study summarizes the information resources of various departments whose work relates to interactions between environment, food and health, and presents measures to strengthen top-down design, and establish unified data standards and a big data sharing platform. It also points to the need for increased training of data analysts with interdisciplinary expertise.