全国基准产业集群识别及在区域经济分析中的应用——以北京市为例

全国基准产业集群反映一国产业技术经济联系的一般特征,可以作为模板应用于区域集群分析。本研究首次识别我国基准产业集群,为我国的区域集群实证研究提供集群模板。以识别的基准产业集群为模板,本研究分析了北京市制造业集群的发展现状,并以北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群为例分析了该集群的组成结构及空间布局。分析发现,北京市目前已形成三个规模较大,并具有区域专业化优势的制造业集群:电子及通信设备制造、汽车及装备制造和电子元器件制造业集群。北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群的优势环节是通信设备制造和其他通信、电子设备制造业,其配套产业环节电子元器件和其他电气机械及器材制造业仍相对较弱。在空间上,北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群主要分布在城市近郊地区,朝阳、海淀、大兴区是集群环节配套较为完善的区域。     

Bimodal distribution of area-weighted latitude of sunspots and solar North-South asymmetry

We study the latitudinal distribution of sunspots observed from 1874 to 2009 using the center-of-latitude (COL). We calculate COL by taking the area-weighted mean latitude of sunspots for each calendar month. We then form the latitudinal distribution of COL for the sunspots appearing in the northern and southern hemispheres separately, and in both hemispheres with unsigned and signed latitudes, respectively. We repeat the analysis with subsets which are divided based on the criterion of which hemisphere is dominant for a given solar cycle. Our primary findings are as follows: (1) COL is not monotonically decreasing with time in each cycle. Small humps can be seen (or short plateaus) around every solar maxima. (2) The distribution of COL resulting from each hemisphere is bimodal, which can well be represented by the double Gaussian function. (3) As far as the primary component of the double Gaussian function is concerned, for a given data subset, the distributions due to the sunspots appearing in two different hemispheres are alike. Regardless of which hemisphere is magnetically dominant, the primary component of the double Gaussian function seems relatively unchanged. (4) When the northern (southern) hemisphere is dominant the width of the secondary component of the double Gaussian function in the northern (southern) hemisphere case is about twice as wide as that in the southern (northern) hemisphere. (5) For the distribution of the COL averaged with signed latitude, whose distribution is basically described by a single Gaussian function, it is shifted to the positive (negative) side when the northern (southern) hemisphere is dominant. Finally, we conclude by briefly discussing the implications of these findings on the variations in the solar activity.     

1971-2009 年珠穆朗玛峰地区尼泊尔境内气候变化

利用珠穆朗玛峰南坡尼泊尔境内(科西河流域) 的10 个气象站1971-2009 年月平均气温、月平均最高、最低气温和逐月降水资料, 采用线性趋势、Sen 斜率估计、Mann-Kendall 等方法分析区域气候变化状况及其时空特征, 并与珠穆朗玛峰北坡地区气候进行比较, 分析了珠穆朗玛峰地区气候变化的特征与趋势。结果表明:(1) 1971-2009 年间, 珠穆朗玛峰南坡年平均气温为20.0℃, 线性升温率为0.25℃/10a, 与北坡主要受年平均最低气温影响相反, 增幅主要受年平均最高气温升高的影响, 并且在1974 年及1992 年间出现两次显著增温, 增温特别明显的月份为2 月和9 月;(2) 该地区降水变化的局地性较强, 近40 年间年平均降水量为1729.01 mm, 年平均降水量以每年约4.27 mm的线性增幅有所增加, 但并不显著, 且降水月变化和季变化特征均不明显;(3) 由于珠穆朗玛峰南坡受到季风带来暖湿气流和喜马拉雅山阻挡的双重影响, 珠峰南坡的年平均降水量远高于北坡;(4) 珠穆朗玛峰南坡气温变暖的海拔依赖性并不明显, 且南坡地区的变暖趋势并没有北坡变暖趋势明显。     

抗高温泡沫钻井液体系评价研究

高频钻井液压力波信息传输技术传输速率高,是实现自动化、智能化钻井的关键技术之一,由于高频钻井液压力波在传输过程中存在较大的衰减,阻碍了该技术的现场应用,探明其衰减规律对于高速传输技术开发具有重要意义。在假设同一钻柱截面钻井液压力相等且钻井液流速存在径向分布的基础上,基于二维轴对称瞬态流动理论,采用小信号分析方法,综合考虑了压力波信号参数、钻柱尺寸及钻井液参数的影响,建立了高频钻井液压力波衰减模型并给出了适用条件。最后采用地面实验验证了该模型的正确性。随后分析钻井液压力波频率、压力波传输距离、钻井液密度及黏度、钻柱内径对高频压力波衰减的影响。结果表明：高频钻井液压力波幅值衰减量随钻井液压力波频率、压力波传输距离及钻井液黏度的增加而增大,且变化规律为指数型;幅值衰减量受频率影响最大,并随钻井液密度及钻柱内径增加逐渐减小。本研究可为高频钻井液压力波信息传输技术研发提供理论指导。

     

基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

基于WRF和统计方法的气温空间尺度分析

WRF模式作为一个中尺度气候模式,其分辨率从几米到几千公里,其自身的双向嵌套特征也为进行动力尺度下推提供了有力条件。本文利用WRF模式和传统的统计方法对研究区的气温进行尺度下推。首先,通过动力下推得到不同分辨率下的气温空间分布,并选取15个气象站点进行点对点验证,为了更明显观察不同尺度间的差异,对不同尺度的输出与ANUSPLIN插值结果进行比对,结果显示动力尺度下推中,分辨率越高模拟效果越好。其次,我们采用传统的统计下推方法,从27km下推到3km分辨率,并与WRF和ANUSPLIN插值在该尺度的结果进行对比分析,结果显示统计下推结果的趋势与动力下推的插值结果是一致的,但具有明显的马赛克效果,通过分析认为,这与统计方法的尺度下推只考虑高程信息的变化对气温的影响,而未考虑其他因素有关,如若在下推时加入更多的变量,如对温度有较大影响的坡度、坡向、土地覆被类型等因素,综合分析不同尺度之间的关系,会使下推结果有所改善。     

A possible active galactic nucleus in M82?

MERLIN and VLA observations of the galaxy M82 have detected a jet-like feature emanating from one of the compact sources, 44.01+59.6. The proximity of this source to the dynamical centre of M82 led us to suspect that it could be a weak active nucleus rather than an SNR. We imaged this source using the EVN at 15 mas and although it shows a compact shell-like structure which could be consistent with an SNR, we note that the EVN image shows a bright region within the source which is elongated along the jet direction. There are distinct similarities between this source and the Sgr A complex at the centre of our own Galaxy which contains the compact AGN, Sgr A^*.     

遗传算法优化的BP神经网络卫星钟差预报

针对BP (Back Propagation)神经网络模型预测卫星钟差中权值和阈值的最优化问题, 提出了基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络卫星钟差短期预报模型, 给出了遗传算法优化BP神经网络的基本思想、具体方法和实施步骤. 为验证该优化模型的有效性和可行性, 利用北斗卫星导航系统(BeiDou navigation satellite system, BDS)卫星钟差数据进行钟差预报精度分析, 并将其与灰色模型(GM(1,1))和BP神经网络模型预报的结果比较分析. 结果表明: 该模型在短期钟差预报中具有较好的精度, 优于GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型.     

Wide-field VLBI imaging

We discuss the technique of Wide-field imaging as it applies to Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). In the past VLBI data sets were usually averaged so severely that the field-of-view was typically restricted to regions extending a few hundred milliarcseconds from the phase centre of the field. Recent advances in data analysis techniques, together with increasing data storage capabilities, and enhanced computer processing power, now permit VLBI images to be made whose angular size represents a significant fraction of an individual antenna's primary beam. This technique has recently been successfully applied to several large separation gravitational lens systems, compact Supernova Remnants in the starburst galaxy M82, and two faint radio sources located within the same VLA FIRST field. It seems likely that other VLBI observing programmes might benefit from this wide-field approach to VLBI data analysis. With the raw sensitivity of global VLBI set to improve by a factor 4–5 over the coming few years, the number of sources that can be detected in a given field will rise considerably. In addition, a continued progression in VLBI's ability to image relatively faint and extended low brightness temperature features (such as hot-spots in large-scale astrophysical jets) is also to be expected. As VLBI sensitivity approaches the μJy level, a wide-field approach to data analysis becomes inevitable.