基于多致灾因子相似的热带气旋检索方法研究:以风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估为例

热带气旋引起的风暴潮-海浪灾害成灾频率高、致灾强度大,对我国沿海地区造成的人员和经济损失惨重。预评估阶段需要在灾前对研究区可能造成的损失等进行快速的综合判定。从历史热带气旋中检索出与目标热带气旋位置及各种致灾因子强度相似的热带气旋是快速、准确地预评估风暴潮-海浪灾害的重要方法。面向风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估,提出了一种基于多致灾因子的相似热带气旋检索方法。用于相似检索的致灾因子数据包括:从中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集中提取并经处理得到的1949~2013年影响湛江市的112场热带气旋的路径中心点位置、中心气压、最大风速、最大风速半径及移动速度数据,112场热带气旋的模拟风场、风暴潮及海浪数据。首先,利用相似离度方法对热带气旋进行路径相似性检索;其次,利用最优相似系数方法计算中心气压、最大风速半径、最大风速、移动速度、风场、风暴潮及海浪强度指标的相似系数进行一次检索;然后,根据风场、风暴潮及海浪模拟数据的获取情况,分别基于路径-强度及风场-风暴潮-海浪综合相似性指标进行二次检索;最终给出历史热带气旋的综合相似排序。以2013年尤特热带气旋为例,利用上述方法检索了与其最为相似的5场历史热带气旋。该方法综合考虑了热带气旋路径及多种致灾因子的相似,兼顾了检索的速度及质量,是进行快速、准确的风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估的重要基础。     

Impact of cyclone Nilam on tropical lower atmospheric dynamics

A deep depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on 28 October 2012, and developed into a cyclonic storm. After landfall near the south coast of Chennai, cyclone Nilam moved north-northwestwards. Coordinated experiments were conducted from the Indian stations of Gadanki(13.5?N, 79.2?E) and Hyderabad(17.4?N, 78.5?E) to study the modification of gravity-wave activity and turbulence by cyclone Nilam, using GPS radiosonde and mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere radar data. The horizontal velocities underwent large changes during the closest approach of the storm to the experimental sites. Hodograph analysis revealed that inertia gravity waves(IGWs) associated with the cyclone changed their directions from northeast(control time) to northwest following the path of the cyclone. The momentum flux of IGWs and short-period gravity waves(1–8 h) enhanced prior to, and during, the passage of the storm(±0.05 m2s-2and ±0.3 m2s-2, respectively), compared to the flux after its passage. The corresponding body forces underwent similar changes, with values ranging between ±2–4m s-1d-1and ±12–15 m s-1d-1. The turbulence refractivity structure constant(C2n) showed large values below 10 km before the passage of the cyclone when humidity in the region was very high. Turbulence and humidity reduced during the passage of the storm when a turbulent layer at ～17 km became more intense. Turbulence in the lower troposphere and near the tropopause became weak after the passage of the cyclone.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TROPICAL ISO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The relationship between the tropical intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) and tropical cyclones (TCs) activities over the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated by utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) global reanalysis data and tropical cyclone best-track data from 1949 to 2009. The main conclusions are: (1) A new ISO index is designed to describe the tropical ISO activity over the SCS, which can simply express ISO for SCS. After examining the applicability of the index constructed by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), we find that the convection spatial scale reflected by this index is too large to characterize the small-scale SCS and fails to divide the TCs activities over the SCS into active and inactive categories. Consequently, the CPC index can’t replace the function of the new ISO index; (2) The eastward spread process of tropical ISO is divided into eight phases using the new ISO index, the phase variation of which corresponds well with the TCs activities over the SCS. TCs generation and landing are significantly reduced during inactive period (phase 4-6) relative to that during active period (phase 7-3); (3) The composite analyses indicate distinct TCs activities over the SCS, which is consistent with the concomitant propagation of the ISO convective activity. During ISO active period, the weather situations are favorable for TCs development over the SCS, e.g., strong convection, cyclonic shear and weak subtropical high, and vice versa; (4) The condensation heating centers, strong convection and water vapor flux divergence are well collocated with each other during ISO active period. In addition, the vertical profile of condensation heat indicates strong ascending motion and middle-level heating over the SCS during active period, and vice versa. Thus, the eastward propagation of tropical ISO is capable to modulate TCs activities by affecting the heating configuration over the SCS.     

Tropical cyclone Ivan’s tornado cluster in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States on 17–18 September 2004

This paper presents a case study of a cluster of tornadoes produced by tropical cyclone (TC) Ivan in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States on 17–18 September 2004. Ivan produced 118 tornadoes between 15 and 18 September, but 57 of these occurred in a period of only 10 h on the last two days. The number of tornadoes that occurred in this event is anomalous when compared to regional tornado climatology and to other TC tornado events. Furthermore, a significantly large number of the tornadoes, when compared to other TC tornadoes, were rated strong according to the Fujita Scale, and they were anomalously long- and wide-tracked. Ivan was in a synoptically favorable environment when these tornadoes were produced, and the tornadoes occurred in a favorable local-scale environment near a front with spatially overlapping shear and buoyancy.     

APPLICATIONS OF THE CLOUDSAT TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCT IN ANALYZING THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC

Cloud profiling radar (CPR) onboard CloudSat allows for deep penetration into dense clouds/precipitation. In this study, tropical cyclones (TCs) are classified into three stages as developing, mature, and decaying. The circular TC area with the radius of 500 km is divided into five regions. The vertical structure characteristics of 94 Western Pacific TCs at different stages in different regions from June 2006 to February 2014 are statistically quantified using the CloudSat tropical cyclone overpass product (the CSTC Product). Contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) of radar reflectivity show an arc-like feature and exhibit opposite distributions with a boundary at 5 km. Bright bands are found at this altitude, indicating melting layers. Deep convective (DC) clouds have the largest occurrence probability in the inner region, while Ci clouds occur more frequently in the outer region at 10-15 km. As clouds have the second largest vertical scale after DC clouds. Distributions of Ac, Cu, and Ns clouds at different stages have few distinctions. As the altitude increases, the ice effective radius and the distribution width parameter decrease while the particle number concentration increases. Moist static energy (MSE), cloud thickness (CT), liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), water vapor (WV), and rain rate (RR) all diminish along the radial direction and are significantly larger at the mature stage. The average value of MSE at the developing stage is larger than that at the decaying stage.     

基于A-Train卫星编队资料的热带气旋强度估算

准确估算热带气旋(TC)强度,对于预测TC发展、减少财产损失具有重要的意义。前人将TC看作满足静力平衡和梯度风平衡的轴对称涡旋系统,基于云顶高度、云顶温度、海表面气压等物理量建立了TC强度估算模型,该模型未考虑环境垂直风切变对TC强度的影响。本文提出一种修正模型,通过统计拟合手段将垂直风切变加入原模型中。从2006—2015年的Cloud Sat资料中筛选出穿心个例共63个。针对云雷达(CPR)数据特点,提出根据反射率因子的垂直分布确定眼墙和外围边界位置的方法。分别用原模型与修正模型对这63个TC个例进行强度估算。与最佳路径数据相比,原模型结果总体偏大,尤其对风切变较大、强度较小的个例估算效果不佳。修正模型对于风切变大于5 m·s~(-1)的个例误差明显减小,平均绝对误差MAE、均方根误差RMSE和平均绝对误差百分比MAPE分别从5.8 m·s~(-1)、7.7 m·s~(-1)和19.5%变为3.5 m·s~(-1)、4.9 m·s~(-1)和11.5%。在一定强度范围内,修正模型估算效果随着强度的增强而提升。修正模型对于成熟阶段的个例效果更好,北半球的估算精度高于南半球,纬度越高,估算误差越小。试验结果表明,用该修正模型估算TC强度是可行的,可以对现有的技术进行辅助和补充。     

南印度洋热带气旋生成频数气候变率对海温异常模响应的研究

基于1980—2014年的哈德莱中心海冰及海温的月平均SST资料,美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)的best-track资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,利用广义平衡反馈方法(GEFA)研究南印度洋热带气旋(TC)生成频数对海表温度异常的响应特征。研究表明:(1)南印度TC生成频数对北太平洋第一模态(NP1)和热带大西洋第二模态(TA2)有显著响应,分别通过了置信度为99%和96%的Monte-Carlo检验,对应的响应振幅分别为0.67和0.49。(2)局地环境要素对关键SSTA模的GEFA响应结果显示:当NP1出现类似于太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的正位相时,850 h Pa相对涡度在15°S附近的印度洋海域上都有一个自西向东的显著正响应带,垂直风切变在马达加斯加以东的大部分海域都表现为显著的负响应,600 h Pa相对湿度在马达加斯加以东的部分海域表现为显著的正响应;当TA2对应的时间系数为正异常时,850 h Pa相对涡度和600 h Pa相对湿度在澳大利亚的西北部印度洋海域表现为显著的正响应,垂直风切变在澳大利亚的西北部印度洋海域表现为显著的负响应。     

Contribution of tropical cyclones to abnormal sea surface temperature warming in the Yellow Sea in December 2004

Unusual sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred over the Yellow Sea (YS) in December 2004. To identify the causes of the abnormal SST warming, we conducted an analysis on atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and their impacts on upper ocean characteristics using multiple datasets. With the analysis of various datasets, we explored a new aspect of the relationship between TC activity and SST. The results show that there is a significant link between TC activity over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and SST in the YS. The integrated effect of consecutive TCs activity induces a large-scale atmospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly over the NWP and consequently anomalous easterly winds over the YS and East China Sea. The mechanism of the unusually warm SST in the YS can be explained by considering TCs acting as an important source of Ekman heat transport that results in substantial intrusion of relatively warm surface water into the YS interior. Furthermore, TC-related circulation anomalies contribute to the retention of the resulting warm SST anomalies in the entire YS.     

基于FY-3C/MWTS-II数据估计西北太平洋热带气旋强度

文章利用FY-3C新型微波温度计(MWTS-Ⅱ)数据估计发生在西北太平洋的热带气旋强度。首先对与热带气旋最强暖核位置相重合的通道5~8进行临边订正,取得了较好的效果,订正偏差均小于各通道的探测灵敏度;之后利用热带气旋微波亮温距平分布分析了热带气旋在对流层中、上层的增暖特征,发现热带气旋中心的增暖强度、形状特征与热带气旋的强度相关,强度较强的气旋中心增温较强,其暖核结构清楚而完整;最后利用通道6和通道7最强亮温距平中的最大值建立了热带气旋强度估计模型,独立样本检验的标准偏差为13.0 hPa,进行扫描角度修正后的标准偏差为12.0 hPa,引入纬度因子后的标准偏差为11.1 hPa,估计精度得到一定程度的改善。     

登陆热带气旋降水预报研究回顾与展望

重点围绕登陆热带气旋（LTC）降水预报研究进行了回顾和总结,指出针对LTC降水有三类预报技术：动力模式、统计方法和动力-统计结合的预报方法。以数值天气预报（NWP）模式为代表的预报技术对LTC降水的预报能力仍然非常有限。改进NWP模式预报误差的途径主要有两条：一是发展NWP模式;二是发展动力-统计结合的方法。分析表明,动力-统计相似预报是一项很有潜力的技术;针对现有研究中的不足,开展LTC降水动力-统计相似预报研究,探索减小数值模式LTC降水预报误差的有效方法,将是一个充满希望的研究领域和方向。