1979-2013年东亚中纬度春、夏温带气旋活动特征及其与东北地区同期降水的联系

利用江苏近10 a（2005-2014年）暖季（5-9月）69站逐时降水资料,详细分析了短时强降水的空间分布、年际变化、季节内演变以及日变化特征。分析结果表明：短时强降水空间分布不均,整体上北部比南部活跃,最活跃区均位于沿淮西部,高强度短时强降水多发生在淮北东部,且空间分布集中。近10 a来江苏短时强降水整体呈减少趋势,主要表现为北部地区减少最为显著。短时强降水季节内分布不均匀,以7月最为活跃,高强度短时强降水在8月最为频繁;其逐候分布显示,梅期短时强降水骤增,于7月第2候达到峰值,盛夏期间高强度短时强降水增多,8月第3候达到峰值。江苏短时强降水的日变化整体呈双峰结构,主峰和次峰分别出现在傍晚17时（北京时间,下同）和清晨07时,高强度短时强降水多发于午后;短时强降水日变化存在季节内演变的阶段性特征和地域性差异,其中梅期和盛夏两个高发阶段均呈单峰结构,但梅期峰值出现在清晨,盛夏阶段峰值则出现在傍晚;由南向北,日变化特征由单峰向双峰、多峰演变,在淮河以南地区日峰值大多出现在午后至傍晚,而淮河以北地区多出现在夜间至清晨。     

影响华东地区热带气旋频数诊断预测方法研究

在建立诊断影响华东地区热带气旋年频数异常概念模型的基础上，采用逐步回归方法构成用前期各月资料诊断预测华东地区热带年频数的客观模式,历史拟合率较高，且进行了试，证明有预测能力。     

热带气旋对副热带高压短期时间尺度变化的影响

文中用ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ逐日资料对西太平洋副热带高压的短期时间尺度演化进行了诊断研究，接　着对诊断结果进行了理论分析，并用一个正压原始方程模式实施数值试验。结果表明，　副热　带高压南侧东风气流中的热带气旋及其频散生成高值系统与副热带高压的相互作用，可以形　成台风北上副热带　高压断裂后的纬向非对称流型和脊线与纬圈斜交的现象；同时讨论了存在这种相互作用的约　束条件。     

西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常与广西严重夏秋连旱关系分析

通过对 2 0世纪 90年代发生的 4次严重夏秋连旱与西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常的关系的分析 ,表明西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常将导致环流的局部运行异常 ,这种异常天气事件的持续或多次重复出现可造成广西地区严重夏、秋连旱     

Atmospheric Hazards Preparedness in Bangladesh: A Study of Warning,Adjustments and Recovery from the April 1991 Cyclone

In probabilistic terms, Bangladesh is prone, to at least one major 'tropical cyclone' every year. This situation is primarily due to the geographical location of Bangladesh in tropical Asia, and to its concave coastline and shallow continental shelf. The devastating impact of such cyclones on humans stems from a combination of intense human occupation of the area, predominance of traditional sociocultural values and religion, the precarious socioeconomic conditions of the majority of the coastal inhabitants, and the lack of a coordinated institutional disaster planning and management strategy. Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic environmental disasters during the last decade; among these events, the 1991 April cyclone was the most catastrophic in terms of both physical and human dimensions.An initial study was carried out in the coastal regions of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of 29 April 1991. This research examined the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It was found that the identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, the monitoring of the hazard event, and the dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. The present study followed up on the initial research by surveying 267 respondents with an elaborate survey instrument, focusing on the most crucial academic and planning issues identified in the 1991 study. In particular, the nature and characteristics of the cyclone preparedness of the coastal inhabitants were assessed by the study; other factors considered included rural-urban variations, mainland-island differences, the nature and role of previous knowledge, and the disaster experience.The survey results show the variety of indigenous adjustment mechanisms that help to rehabilitate the survivors; also visible are the profound roles played by the social inequality variables and the magnitude of physical vulnerability in influencing the disaster loss and recovery process. The study recommends that hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that the cyclone warning system should incorporate the human response to warnings as its constituent part, and in this way accommodating human dimensions in its operational design.     

POTENTIAL VORTICITY STRUCTURE OF SUMMER CYCLONES OVER THE CHANGJIANG-HUAIHE VALLEY

Based on the theory of Ertel potential vorticity,the isentropic potential vorticity maps and vertical pro-files of potential vorticity for two summer cyclones over the Changjiang-Huaihe Valley are analysed.Afterdiscussing a possible mechanism for the genesis and development of such systems and their differences fromtypical extratropical cyclones,a conceptual model for their activities is proposed:A weak disturbance in the mid-level of troposphere originated from around the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau may cause heavy precipitation underfavourable conditions and latent heat release in the mid-troposphere leads to downward extension of cycloniccirculation and a wave on the quasi-stationary front.This weak cyclone can develop substantially and becomea typical extratropical cyclone only when air from the lower stratosphere flows downslope along isentropic sur-faces into the region of interest.     

西北太平洋迅速加强热带气旋的统计特征和识别预报试验

利用2000—2014年热带气旋(TC)最佳路径、最终分析资料和静止卫星红外云顶亮温(TBB)资料,对比分析了西北太平洋(WNP),以及南海(SCS)的迅速加强(RI),与非迅速加强(non-RI)TC样本的环境背景和TBB统计特征,其中non-RI样本细分为不同的强度变化率即:缓慢加强(SI),强度稳定、缓慢减弱和迅速减弱等。结果表明,相对于SI,WNP海域的RI样本处于海表温度较高、海洋上层热容量较大、最大可能强度较大、高层辐散较强、风垂直切变(VWS)较弱和高层纬向风(U200)偏东分量较大等环境背景条件下;SCS海域的RI样本较易发生在VWS较弱的环境背景条件下。此外,相对于non-RI,支持RI发展的有利条件还包括中低层相对湿度较大、高层环境温度较低等。RI样本通常具备的TBB特征为TC内核的对流云覆盖率较大、TBB平均值相对较小。采用K最近邻分类算法进行RI预报试验,交叉检验结果表明,该方法对RI样本有一定的识别预报能力,RI样本概括率达到74.2%,技巧评分达到0.717。     

GRAPES_TYM模式对TC路径及环境引导气流预报检验分析

对2012—2013年GRAPES_TYM模式热带气旋路径预报结果进行检验,结果表明:模式对所有类型路径预报在24h、48h和72h预报时效的平均距离误差分别为94.3km,143.7km和260.8km,并且存在偏北的系统性偏差;对于南海TC,模式对TC移向预报较实况偏右,移速误差较小,移向偏差是路径偏差的主要原因;另外统计得到模式对TC移向的预报偏差与对其环境引导气流预报偏差有密切的关系,以1213号台风"启德"为例进一步通过移向误差诊断方程探讨了环境引导气流预报偏差(包括环境风场预报偏差、环境引导气流半径偏差及环境引导气流厚度偏差)对TC移向偏差的影响,而环境引导气流预报误差来源与模式对大尺度天气系统、TC大小及强度的预报偏差有关。     

2013年影响海南热带气旋异常偏多成因分析

利用1983-2013年热带气旋年鉴、NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料及国家气候中心74项环流指数资料等,统计分析了近30a西太平洋以及影响海南的热带气旋特征,并对2013年西太平洋热带气旋偏多、秋台集中以及影响海南热带气旋偏多的异常特征从天气学等方面进行了分析。结果表明,副热带高压、夏季风、越赤道气流、海表温度及北半球极涡等环流系统异常,是形成2013年西太平洋热带气旋偏多的主要原因。南半球冷高压发展激发越赤道气流增强,引发赤道西风加强;副热带高压偏北偏弱,夏季风增强,副高南侧热带辐合带对流活跃;南海-西太平洋海表温度偏高;极涡偏弱偏西,经向环流偏弱,中纬度冷空气活动不频繁等。多条件共同作用,有利于西太平洋热带气旋的生成。另外,副高呈东西向分布,南海海表温度偏高使得南海及菲律宾以东生成的热带气旋易于向西移动影响海南。     

西北太平洋热带云团发展与两类El Nio事件的联系

利用1982—2009年全球热带云团数据集、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和英国Hadley中心海温资料,并引入热带云团生成率(Genesis Productivity,GP)来分析EP(Eastern Pacific)El Nio和CP(Central Pacific)El Nio事件与西北太平洋热带云团发展的相关性。研究表明,1)夏秋两季GP与Nio3指数在东南区(SE)均为显著正相关,在西南区(SW)仅秋季呈显著正相关;GP与EMI(El Nio Modoki Index)指数在夏季SE区域为显著正相关,在秋季南中国海(South China Sea,SCS)区呈负相关。2)在EP El Nio年,夏季SE区域的GP增大与低层涡度、高层散度以及低层相对湿度的相对增大一致。夏季SW区域与秋季SE区域的GP增大与有利的高低空配置相关,La Nia年则与之相反。3)在CP El Nio年,夏季SE区域的GP增大伴随着低层涡度和高层散度的增加,同时与充足的水汽及弱风切变相吻合;而秋季SCS区域的GP下降源于正涡度带、正散度带以及水汽带的东移。