Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.     

SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND LANDFALLING IN CHINA BY REGCM4

This study evaluates the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and their landfalling in China. The model is driven by ERA-Interim boundary conditions at a grid spacing of 25 km, with the simulation period as 1991–2010. Results show that RegCM4 performs well in capturing the main structural features of observed TCs, and in simulating the genesis number and annual cycle of the genesis. The model reproduces the general pattern of the observed TC tracks and occurrence frequency. However, significant underestimation of the occurrence frequency as well as the TC intensity is found. Number of the landfalling TCs over China is also much less than the observed. Bias of the model in reproducing the large-scale circulation pattern and steering flow may contribute to the underestimated landfalling TC numbers.     

CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.     

近海地形对热带气旋移动影响的数值试验

利用含地形、摩擦及非绝热加热外源强迫的准地转正压涡度方程模式 ,通过构造理想的坡地地形及椭圆型岛地形 ,首先分析了孤立地形的动力抬升作用及动力抬升、摩擦、非绝热加热 3者共同作用下对热带气旋 (TC)移动的影响。发现 :地形的动力抬升、摩擦作用以及地形附近海域的非绝热加热对TC移动均有影响 ;然后 ,引入了我国东南近海的实际地形 ,通过数值试验分析了TC移经或登陆在近海不同位置时TC移向、移速的可能变化 ,并给出了近海地形对TC移向、移速影响的空间分布。     

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。     

台风菲特暴雨诊断分析

"菲特"台风暴雨具有阶段性特征,包括台风远距离降水、台风倒槽和内螺旋雨带降水、台风外部螺旋雨带降水、台风残留低压环流与冷空气相互作用降水4个阶段。利用地面观测、气象雷达观测、NCEP分析资料,对"菲特"台风暴雨环流形势进行了分析。引导台风东移的高压东西部具有不同热力属性,东部暖性深厚、西部冷性浅薄。浅薄冷高压阻挡登陆台风继续西移,延长台风倒槽和外围螺旋雨带的降水时间。"丹娜丝"台风的靠近,有利于东南风水汽输送的增强。副热带高压的增强,在黄海上空逼近东移高空槽形成稳定的高空急流。文章提出与传统垂直风切变大、高空急流强的冷空气阻挡型不同的侵入型冷空气和台风相互作用形势。侵入型冷空气从低层入侵,影响台风残留低压的外围环流。在低压外围环流的北部形成较强的东北风,并与海上的东风对峙辐合形成海岸锋。冷空气侵入型的空间不对称特征明显:对流有效位能东高西低,垂直风切变西北高东南低。残留低压的中层受冷空气影响较小,沿海地区的东南风持续的时间更长。中层高位涡区与地面海岸锋的互应,为变性的台风残留低压暴雨提供有利条件。     

Boundary-layer wind structure in a landfalling tropical cyclone

In this study, a slab boundary layer model with a constant depth is used to analyze the boundary-layer wind structure in a landfalling tropical cyclone. Asymmetry is found in both the tangential and radial components of horizontal wind in the tropical cyclone boundary layer at landfall. For a steady tropical cyclone on a straight coastline at landfall, the magnitude of the radial component is greater in the offshoreflow side and the tangential component is greater over the sea, slightly offshore, therefore the greater total wind speed occurs in the offshore-flow side over the sea. The budget analysis suggests that： （1） a greater surface friction over land produces a greater inflow and the nonlinear effect advects the maximum inflow downstream, and （2） a smaller surface friction over the sea makes the decrease of the tangential wind component less than that over land. Moreover, the boundary layer wind structures in a tropical cyclone are related to the locations of the tropical cyclone relative to the coastline due to the different surface frictions. During tropical cyclone landfall, the impact of rough terrain on the cyclone increases, so the magnitude of the radial component of wind speed increases in the offshore-flow side and the tangential component outside the radius of maximum wind speed decreases gradually.     

3套资料中西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征的比较分析

本文使用中国气象局、美国联合台风预警中心和日本气象厅的3套热带气旋最佳路径资料(CMA资料、JTWC资料和RSMC资料)分析了1951—2016年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征。3套资料反映的结果如下:热带气旋主要发生在10°N—25°N范围内,且1980年前其位置点在纬度上有南移的变化趋势,1980年后则相反;移速主要分布在2~6 m/s区间,在25°N左右移速明显加快,1980年前移速呈显著减小趋势;最大持续风速主要分布在10~15 m/s区间,1980年前最大持续风速有减小趋势;在风速较大的区域热带气旋最大风速半径较小,2001—2016年热带气旋和台风最大风速半径每年分别减小0.46 km和0.54 km。CMA和RSMC资料的结果高度一致,而JTWC资料结果与它们都存在一定的差异。热带气旋位置点频数和强度的变化受资料间差异的影响较大,而其位置及移速的变化则受影响较小。     

孟加拉湾季风对热带气旋生成和发展的调制机制研究

孟加拉湾与其他热带海盆不同,在季风影响下,该地区热带气旋具有双气旋季的独特结构(4—5月的春季转换期和10—11月的秋季转换期)。虽然孟加拉湾气旋频数在10—11月较多,但是4—5月超强气旋(Saffir-Simpson 4,5级)的生成率却远高于10—11月。1981—2016年,春季转换期内孟加拉湾超强气旋都与第一支北传季节内振荡(First Northward-propagating Intra-Seasonal Oscillation,FNISO)相应而生,然而并不是所有伴随FNISO发生的气旋都能发展成为超强气旋。因此本研究以气旋生成指数为基础,利用气旋最佳轨道数据以及NCEP的海气参量数据,诊断指出孟加拉湾夏季风形成的强垂直风速剪切配合低层大气旋度和气旋潜在强度抵消夏季风期间水汽对气旋生成的促进作用,造成双峰分布,而中层大气相对湿度差异双峰不对称的主因。FNISO强度的不同与深对流中心与气旋中心的相对位置的差异,使得部分气旋受季节内振荡影响更大,强深对流的超越作用导致更显著的高低层大气温差,促使气旋具有且达到更大的潜在强度。在年际尺度上大气高低层温差的不同也是引起气旋潜在强度不同的主要原因。当季节内尺度和年际尺度共同作用,使得部分气旋发展成为超强气旋。     

袭港热带气旋持续时间长期频率分析

香港经常受到西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,对该地区热带气旋持续时间的研究有助于经济社会的稳定发展。按照气象和天文台警告信号,热带气旋分为不同的强度等级。建立热带气旋持续时间的Poisson-Weibull复合分布模型,相应获得持续时间重现值的求解公式,分别用于不同热带气旋分类下持续时间多年一遇重现值的计算中。基于1987-2016年袭港热带气旋数据的分析结果表明,Poisson-Weibull分布适用于不同的持续时间分类样本;强的热带气旋经常会伴随较长的持续时间,这将会对该地区造成更为严重的破坏,这可为防灾减灾提供参考。