影响湛江的热带气旋路径、登陆地点和增水关系探讨

本文根据影响湛江的典型热带气旋和风暴潮增水资料,系统地分析了热带气旋登陆地点、路径等要素和湛江港增水的关系。结果表明,湛江港发生的增水极值时间和增水形式因热带气旋登陆地点和路径的不同而异。从动力学进一步分析也表明,湛江港的增水类型与热带气旋登陆地点和路径关系非常密切。本文最后还讨论共振现象对湛江港增水的影响。     

登陆我国热带气旋中心最低气压和最大风速关系研究

热带气旋(TC)登陆时中心最大风速会发生明显衰减,研究此时的风压关系对风暴潮模拟和预测具有重要意义。采用中国气象局上海台风研究所数据资料,对1949—2016年风压关系序列的一致性进行检验,登陆风压关系公式拟合及误差分析。结果表明:1970s后风压关系发生变异;新公式在计算登陆风速时要优于原公式,尤其是大风速情况下;相同气压下台风在近岸时风速明显小于大洋中,且登陆时风速越大衰减越剧烈。     

1951—2017年热带气旋移动速度特征统计分析

热带气旋移动速度是目前热带气旋研究热点之一。本文利用1951—2017年中国国家气象局最佳路径集资料,系统分析了西北太平洋海域热带气旋不同强度等级移动速度的年代际特征,初步探讨其原因,并对不同强度等级移动速度的分布特征进行系统诊断。结果表明,1951—2017年间平均移动速度(所有强度等级平均及对于大部分强度等级)呈现出减慢趋势,且主要体现在强热带气旋等级移动速度减慢;热带气旋向高纬度迁移趋势理论上将使移动速度增大而移动速度仍然减慢,说明气候因素是引起移动速度减慢的一个重要因素;不同强度等级平均移动速度、增强阶段基本相当,减弱阶段随强度减弱在初、中期明显增加,之后又逐渐减小,变性气旋移动速度显著增加;不同强度等级速度概率分布,增强阶段基本相同且相对集中,减弱阶段差异较大且相对分散,变性气旋最为分散。     

Tropical cyclones and multiscale climate variability: The active western North Pacific Typhoon season of 2018

The 2018 typhoon season in the western North Pacific(WNP) was highly active, with 26 named tropical cyclones(TCs) from June to November, which exceeded the climatological mean(22) and was the second busiest season over the past twenty years. More TCs formed in the eastern region of the WNP and the northern region of the South China Sea(SCS). More TCs took the northeast quadrant in the WNP, recurving from northwestward to northward and causing heavy damages in China's Mainland(69.73 billion yuan) in 2018. Multiscale climate variability is conducive to an active season via an enhanced monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high in the WNP. The large-scale backgrounds in 2018 showed a favorable environment for TCs established by a developing central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o and positive Pacific meridional mode(PMM)episode on interannual timescales. The tropical central Pacific(TCP) SST forcing exhibits primary control on TCs in the WNP and large-scale circulations, which are insensitive to the PMM. During CP El Ni?o years, anomalous convection associated with the TCP warming leads to significantly increased anomalous cyclonic circulation in the WNP because of a Gill-type Rossby wave response. As a result, the weakened subtropical high and enhanced monsoon trough shift eastward and northward, which favor TC genesis and development. Although such increased TC activity in 2018 might be slightly suppressed by interdecadal climate variability, it was mostly attributed to the favorable interannual background. In addition, high-frequency climate signals,such as intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) and synoptic-scale disturbances(SSDs), interacted with the enhanced monsoon trough and strongly modulated regional TC genesis and development in 2018.     

一次西南印度洋热带气旋过程发展机制的数值研究

本文利用尽可能多的观测资料和WRF-3.4.1模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对2012年1月19日至28日发生在西南印度洋上空的1次强热带气旋进行了研究,并分析其时空结构和发展机制。对该热带气旋的移动路径、强度及内部结构的数值模拟结果与实际符合较好。分析表明,感热和凝结潜热贯串于热带气旋发展的整个过程,其中感热对气旋发展的影响较弱,凝结潜热是气旋发展的主要能量来源,CISK机制可解释该热带气旋的发展过程。     

台风“海马”对吕宋海峡附近暖涡的影响及其动力机制

台风和海洋涡旋相互作用,对台风路径和强度的预报和预警具有重要的意义。本文根据2016年第22号超强台风"海马"登陆前后在吕宋海峡附近海域的水文要素现场观测,结合卫星遥感资料,分析了台风过境前后位于吕宋海峡北部的中尺度暖涡内海洋物理要素的分布及其对台风的响应特征。结果表明,处于台风边缘的暖涡并没有因为台风过境产生的强冷抽吸作用而被削弱;反而因台风边缘产生的较强的负风应力旋度异常,导致此区域上层暖海水辐聚下沉、混合层厚度增加,从而增强了该暖涡。台风过境前后,暖涡内热含量的变化也证实了该涡旋的增强。而离台风中心较近的暖涡,则受到强的正风应力旋度产生的冷抽吸作用而被削弱。此次观测研究丰富了台风和涡旋的相互作用物理机制探索,为台风预测预警提供了现场观测数据支持。     

A meta‐analysis of reef island response to environmental change on the Great Barrier Reef

Reef islands on the Great Barrier Reef are influenced by a range of environmental factors. A meta‐analysis of 103 islands is presented to express variation in island size (area and volume) as a function of latitudinal and cross shelf gradients in regional oceanographic factors (exposure to incident waves, tidal range and tropical cyclone frequency) and local physical factors (position on the shelf, area, length and depth of supporting reef platform, vegetative cover). Models performed well for unvegetated sandcays (R² = 0.89), vegetated sandcays (R² = 0·72) and low wooded islands (R² = 0.78), with a moderate level of variation explained when all islands were simultaneously regressed (R² = 0.58). Future island dynamics were simulated for anticipated changes in cyclone regime, wave activity and sea level. For 38 islands mapped on the 1973 Royal Society and Universities of Queensland Expedition to the Northern Great Barrier Reef, change over the same 22 year period (1973–1995) was determined and the relative magnitude of observed and modelled changes was compared and found to be consistent through rank correlation analysis (Γ = 0.84 for unvegetated sandcays, Γ = 0.81 for vegetated sandcays). Simulations of island area or volume change from 2000 to 2100 indicated that under a 30% decrease in tropical cyclone activity, unvegetated sandcays continue to accrete at a lower rate, whereas all island types erode under a 38% increase in tropical cyclone activity. Vegetated sandcays initially accrete at higher levels of cyclone activity, entering an erosive state with a 60% increase in activity. Low wooded islands are unresponsive to environmental changes modelled. A sensitivity analysis of vegetated and unvegetated sandcays indicated that the presence of vegetation increases the tropical cyclone activity threshold at which islands begin to erode. Greatest sedimentary losses occur within the central band of high cyclone activity between Cooktown and Mackay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.     

热带气旋登陆维持和迅速消亡的诊断研究

采用动态合成方法, 对登陆后长久维持热带气旋(LTC)和迅速衰亡热带气旋(STC)的涡度、动能、热量和水汽的收支平衡进行计算和对比分析.结果表明: (1)LTC在陆上长久维持过程中, 其低层正涡度衰减缓慢并保持一定强度.STC登陆后正涡度减弱较快.(2)热带气旋登陆后涡度的收支主要取决于水平散度项、平流项和剩余项.散度项使LTC低层正涡度增加, 高层减少, 平流项和剩余项则使其低层涡度减弱, 高层涡度增加.总体而言, LTC自高层获得正涡度的补充, STC则没有获得环境正涡度.(3)低层, 摩擦耗散使LTC动能减少, 但动能通量辐合可补充部分动能而减缓衰减.中高层, LTC登陆后36～60 h动能收大于支, 动能的增加一部分来自于斜压动能制造, 一部分来自于次网格尺度.STC有类似的动能耗散, 却无动能补充.(4)LTC登陆后保持一定强度, 并从外界获得热量和水汽补充来支持积云对流发展, 而积云对流对LTC的维持具有正反馈作用.STC登陆后没有这一过程.     

2010年西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动异常的成因分析

利用中国气象局热带气旋（TC）资料、NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料和美国 NOAA 向外长波辐射（OLR）等资料,分析了2010年西北太平洋（WNP）及南海（SCS）热带气旋活动异常的可能成因,讨论了同期大气环流配置和海温外强迫对TC生成和登陆的动力和热力条件的影响。结果表明,2010年生成TC频数明显偏少,生成源地显著偏西,而登陆TC频数与常年持平。导致7～10月TC频数明显偏少的大尺度环境场特征为：副热带高压较常年异常偏强、西伸脊点偏西,季风槽位置异常偏西,弱垂直风切变带位置也较常年偏西且范围偏小,南亚高压异常偏强,贝加尔湖附近对流层低高层均为反气旋距平环流,这些关键环流因子的特征和配置都不利于 TC 在WNP的东部生成。影响TC活动的外强迫场特征为：2010年热带太平洋经历了El Ni?o事件于春末夏初消亡、La Ni?a事件于7月形成的转换;7～10月,WNP海表温度维持正距平,140°E以东为负距平且对流活动受到抑制;暖池次表层海温异常偏暖,对应上空850 hPa为东风距平,有利于季风槽偏西和TC在WNP的西北侧海域生成。WNP海表温度和暖池次表层海温的特征是2010年TC生成频数偏少、生成源地异常偏西的重要外强迫信号。有利于7～10月热带气旋西行和登陆的500 hPa风场特征为：北太平洋为反气旋环流距平,其南侧为东风异常,该东风异常南缘可到25°N,并向西扩展至中国大陆地区;南海和西北太平洋地区15°N以南的低纬也为东风异常;在这样的风场分布型下,TC容易受偏东气流引导西行并登陆我国沿海地区。这是2010年生成TC偏少但登陆TC并不少的重要环流条件。