An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

Evaluation of seismic hazard at Roermond, The Netherlands: A comparison of results after the 13 April 1992 earthquake

Mean return periods, RP, for the site of Roermond, The Netherlands, as calculated by different methods, are compared, and its quality evaluated by a simple two-tail test of hypothesis. Results show that RP values by the EGO-method are statistically more likely. They can be considered, despite their broad 90% probability intervals, and for the site and data used, more reliable, since the Roermond earthquake was not an unusual or surprising event for the Lower Rhine Embayment area, where earthquakes of comparable size have occurred since the 18th century.     

热带气旋资料长度对风暴潮危险性评估结果的影响

热带气旋历史样本数不足一直困扰着风暴潮风险评估研究,本文基于西北太平洋62 a(1949-2010年)历史观测热带气旋事件集资料和用随机模拟方法构造的1000 a模拟热带气旋随机事件集,以福建省连江县为例,开展了资料长度对风暴潮灾害危险性评估结果的影响分析。文中用ADCIRC模型模拟了两种数据集强迫下的风暴潮增水,采用极值Ⅰ型分布法得到了典型重现期的风暴潮增水,经过对计算结果分析发现典型重现期的风暴潮增水计算结果与所用数据资料长度有着密切相关性,数据资料越长,结果越稳定。对于1000 a一遇的风暴潮增水值,使用500 a长度的资料已经趋于稳定,并接近用1000 a资料计算得到的结果。在进行风暴潮危险性评估时,相比用几十年尺度的热带气旋历史数据集,1000 a的热带气旋模拟数据集的计算结果更具实际意义。     

极端荷载作用下海洋导管架平台体系可靠度分析

采用非线性倒塌分析方法，考虑桩－土－结构的非线性相互作用，研究了导管架平台在极端荷载作用下承载能力的计算模型，分析了平台结构体系在极端荷载作用下的全倒塌全过程，在此基础上，结合蒙特卡洛法，提出了海洋导管架平台结构的体系可靠度计算方法。最后对工程实例－涠11－4C海洋平台的结构进行了体系可靠性分析，并对比分析了不同的荷载效应计算公式对计算经的影响，研究表明计算经满足工程设计要求，便于工程应用。     

Extreme value analysis in a multivariate offshore environment

Floating offshore systems are exposed to a multivariate environment with wind, waves and current all making a significant contribution to the mooring forces. The design of such systems requires an appreciation of the extreme conditions but the concept of the return period value has to be extended to reflect multiple environmental variables. This study examines the practicalities of employing a multivariate point process model in extreme value analyses, using a moored semi-submersible and its responses to the wind and waves as an example. The output from this illustrative bivariate analysis includes both estimates of the 50-year mooring force and also return period contours which indicate the likely combinations of wind and wave which might give rise to the 50-year condition.     

Assessment of annual high‐water events for the Mackenzie River basin,Canada

River ice break‐up is known to have important morphological, ecological and socio‐economic effects on cold‐regions river environments. One of the most persistent effects of the spring break‐up period is the occurrence of high‐water events. A return‐period assessment of maximum annual nominal water depths occurring during the spring break‐up and open‐water season at 28 Water Survey of Canada hydrometric sites over the 1913–2002 time period in the Mackenzie River basin is presented. For the return periods assessed, 13 (14) stations are dominated by peak events occurring during the spring break‐up (open‐water) season. One location is determined to have a mixed signal. A regime classification is proposed to separate ice‐ and open‐water dominated systems. As part of the regime classification procedure, specific characteristics of return‐period patterns including alignment, and difference between the 2 and 10‐year events are used to identify regime types. A dimensionless stage‐discharge plot allows for a contrast of the relative magnitudes of flows required to generate maximum nominal water‐depth events in the different regimes. At sites where discharge during the spring break‐up is approximately one‐quarter or greater than the magnitude of the peak annual discharge, nominal water depths can be expected to exceed those occurring during the peak annual discharge event. Several physical factors (location, basin area, stream order, gradient, river orientation, and climate) are considered to explain the differing regimes and discussed relative to the major sub‐regions of the MRB. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada.     

Uniform and lateral preferential flows under flood irrigation at field scale

Flood irrigation is globally one of the most used irrigation methods. Typically, not all water that is applied during flood irrigation is consumed by plants or lost to evaporation. Return flow, the portion of applied water from flood irrigation that returns back to streams either via surface or subsurface flow, can constitute a large part of the water balance. Few studies have addressed the connection between vertical and lateral subsurface flows and its potential role in determining return flow pathways due to the difficulty in observing and quantifying these processes at plot or field scale. We employed a novel approach, combining induced polarization, time‐lapse electrical resistivity tomography, and time‐lapse borehole nuclear magnetic resonance, to identify flow paths and quantify changes in soil hydrological conditions under nonuniform application of flood irrigation water. We developed and tested a new method to track the wetting front in the subsurface using the full range of inverted resistivity values. Antecedent soil moisture conditions did not play an important role in preferential flow path activation. More importantly, boundaries between lithological zones in the soil profile were observed to control preferential flow pathways with subsurface run‐off occurring at these boundaries when saturation occurred. Using the new method to analyse time‐lapse resistivity measurements, we were able to track the wetting front and identify subsurface flow paths. Both uniform infiltration and preferential lateral flows were observed. Combining three geophysical methods, we documented the influence of lithology on subsurface flow processes. This study highlights the importance of characterizing the subsurface when the objective is to identify and quantify subsurface return flow pathways under flood irrigation.     

广义极值分布在重庆短历时极值降水中的应用

利用广义极值分布函数拟合1981—2016年重庆34个国家气象站短历时(1、3、6、12 h)极值降水序列,对拟合结果进行显著性水平检验,并给出不同重现期极值降水的空间分布。结果表明:广义极值分布函数能较好地拟合重庆地区的短历时极值降水。随着降水历时的延长,服从Weibull分布(Frechet分布)的站点数逐渐减少(增加)。各短历时不同重现期降水的空间分布具体表现为10 a以下及20 a以上基本相似,位于长江沿线以北的重庆西北部地区降水量明显大于重庆长江沿线以南地区,且渝东南降水的相对大值区位于彭水地区。随着重现期的增加,降水中心更加集中,渝东北的大值中心随着历时的延长向北移动。广义极值分布函数的形状参数的绝对值接近或超出0.5时,计算的高重现期(大于样本长度)极值降水存在较大偏差;当不同历时降水拟合的形状参数值具有明显差异时,高重现期降水可能出现与客观规律相悖的现象。     

一次回流型降雪过程的成因和相态判据分析

利用常规高空和地面观测资料、天津铁塔和雷达资料、全球资料同化系统(GDAS)分析资料、雷达变分同化分析系统资料、EC和NCEP再分析资料对2016年11月20—21日天津初雪天气进行成因分析,结果表明:本次过程是在高空槽和回流冷空气共同作用下产生的,主要水汽来源为对流层中低层槽前西南暖湿气流和回流东风,回流东风经渤海低空运行时吸收水汽由"干冷"变为"湿冷";动力条件主要来自回流冷垫的动力抬升作用,降水期间回流东风层厚度由1.5km增加至2km;锋面上的非地转次级环流可将回流东风水汽向上输送成为降水原料,同时可加强其上暖湿空气的垂直上升运动;高空云水粒子向云冰粒子的转换和边界层回流冷空气加强对本次雨雪相态转换是不可或缺的,回流冷空气北风分量风速和厚度陡增、800～950hPa出现均温层、云冰粒子陡增并向低空延伸、700～850hPa与850～1000hPa厚度的变化特征对雨雪相态的判别均有较好的指示作用。     

稿件退修未回原因分析及对策建议

以《山东国土资源》期刊退修未回稿件为例,分析退修稿件修改不及时及不修回原因,认为审稿周期过长、编辑综合能力、作者自身重视度等是影响稿件修改的重要因素。提出缩短审稿周期、加强有效沟通、规范投稿流程等建议,以确保稿件的及时修回,保证稿件的时效性和避免优秀稿件的流失。