区域气象干旱特征多变量Copula分析——以阿克苏河流域为例

根据阿克苏河流域及其周边区域9个站点1960~2010年日降水资料,以降水距平百分率(Pa)指数表征气象干旱状况,构建了3种Archimedean Copula函数,通过4种方法(RMSE、AIC、BIC、Bayes)的检验,选出GH Copula作为最合适多变量干旱特征联合分布函数,并开展了研究区干旱特征两变量联合分布及重现期研究。结果表明:1 3种Archimedean Copula函数中GH Copula函数对研究区域干旱联合重现期分布的拟合效果最优;2研究区整体上干旱风险较大,东部比西部干旱风险高,南部高于北部;3发生中等干旱和严重干旱时,阿拉尔和柯坪干旱风险增大,整体上"且"与"或"联合重现期的分布大体一致,发生长历时干旱时,干旱的严重程度也大,说明此区域的干旱特征对开展风险管理及应对很不利。     

Hydrochemical characteristics of irrigation return flow in semi-arid regions of Iran

Abstract

The study area is located on the Harat plain, in the central region of Iran. Four local-soil filled, free-drainage lysimeters were installed in wheat and barley farms operating under traditional farm management practices. The volume, electrical conductivity (EC), nitrate and major ions of the applied irrigation water and irrigation return flow (IRF) were measured during the growing season. The total dissolved solids (TDS) of IRF increased three to five times compared to that of the applied water. This enhancement was the same as for the chloride ion ratio, indicating the major impact of evapotranspiration in IRF salinity enhancement. Geochemical modelling using PHREEQCI confirmed the significant role of evapotranspiration and the minor effects of processes such as calcite precipitation, gypsum dissolution, fertilizer nitrification and ion exchange on the values of the IRF TDS. Time variations of EC were functions of the type of flow (preferential or matrix), lithology and soil type. The controlling parameters of the nitrate time series were the frequent applications of N fertilizer and the nitrification process. The annual N loads (NO₃-N) of IRF varied from 22 to 195 kg ha^-1. These variations were due to the different N loads in the applied water, the amount of fertilizer, soil texture, N uptake and volume of IRF. The annual salt loads of IRF were mainly controlled by the volume of IRF.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Jafari, H., Raeisi, E., Hoehn, E. and Zare, M., 2012. Hydrochemical characteristics of irrigation return flow in semi-arid regions of Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 173–185.     

Multivariate drought characteristics using trivariate Gaussian and Student t copulas

This study aims to investigate the changing properties of drought events in Weihe River basin, China, by modeling the multivariate joint distribution of drought duration, severity and peak using trivariate Gaussian and Student t copulas. Monthly precipitations of Xi'an gauge are used to illustrate the meta‐elliptical copula‐based methodology for a single‐station application. Gaussian and Student t copulas are found to produce a better fit comparing with other six symmetrical and asymmetrical Archimedean copulas, and, checked by the goodness‐of‐fit tests based on a modified bootstrap version of Rosenblatt's transformation, both of them are acceptable to model the multivariate joint distribution of drought variables. Gaussian copula, the best fitting, is employed to construct the dependence structures of positively associated drought variables so as to obtain the multivariate joint and conditional probabilities of droughts. A Kendall's return period (KRP) introduced by Salvadori and De Michele (2010) is then adopted to assess the multivariate recurrent properties of drought events, and its spatial distributions indicate that prolonged droughts are likely to break out with rather short recurrence intervals in the whole region, while drought status in the southeast seems to be severer than the northwest. The study is of some merits in terms of multivariate drought modeling using a preferable copula‐based method, the results of which could serve as a reference for regional drought defense and water resources management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

3维干旱变量联合概率分布研究

研究多变量干旱特性联合分布的推求方法。选择干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值为水文干旱特性变量。单变量的边际分布参数分别采用矩法、概率权重法、极大似然法和遗传算法进行计算和优化。应用检验、Kolmogorov-Smirnov等6种检验法进行单变量分布的拟合度检验。采用Pearson’s古典相关系数,Spearman秩相关系数,Kendall’s,Chi-Plots和K-Plots进行变量间的相依性度量。选择4种常用的3维Archimedean Copula函数进行干旱特性变量联合分布拟合。根据RMSE、AIC和BIC准则选择最优copula。在此基础上,采用基于Rosenblatt变换的Bootstrap法进行3维copula的拟合度检验。模型应用于渭河流域北洛河状头站径流序列,结果表明:Gumbel-Hougaard copula拟合效果最好,可以描述洛河状头站3维干旱变量的联合分布。     

圆明亮琢型立方氧化锆在环形光源下的亮度测量研究

运用钻石光学效果观察仪采集合成立方氧化锆（CZ）样品的光学效果的实测图样,采用中国地质大学（武汉）珠宝学院石斌博士研发的宝石切工仿真分析系统模拟样品的光学效果仿真图样及可视亮度。通过量化程序统计样品实测图样的亮度值,以及仿真图样的亮度值。研究在入射角度为7．12°-12．58°的环形光源下,样品的实测亮度与主要切工参数的关系;对比仿真图样与实测图样的异同;分析样品可视亮度与仿真图样的统计亮度值的变化趋势,发现样品仿真图样的统计亮度值与模拟的可视亮度变化趋势基本一致;对称性较好样品的仿真图样与实测图样较一致;亭角38．5°-41．5°,冠角27°-39°之间一些特定组合的样品具有较高的亮度。结果表明,通过采集、分析图样测量圆明亮琢型宝石实际亮度的方法是准确可行的;对称性或某些参数的细微变化都可能引起样品亮度很大的变化;亮度较高样品的亭角、冠角满足加和规律,即亭角减小必须与需锫增加相静会．才鲐呈拥掂高的毒序     

Extreme significant wave height climate in the Gulf of Guinea

This article investigates spatio-temporal trends for different return periods of extreme significant wave height (SWH) in the Gulf of Guinea (GG), northeastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, based on a 37-year (1980–2016) wave hindcast. High-resolution reanalysis windfield datasets were used to force the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The wave hindcast information was validated using data gathered from the US National Data Buoy Center. The model performance was adequate. In a spatial analysis, the trends were less than 0.3 m decade^?1 in all parts of the GG, and were increasingly positive westwards, extending to the far western part of the GG; trends below 0.01 m decade^?1 dominated in the eastern part and some areas of the northern part of the gulf. Temporal analysis showed that the trends were negative in all cases. Spatio-temporal trends in the return periods for the 99th-percentile wave height were generally weak. Also, trends in the yearly, seasonal and monthly means of extreme SWH all generally increased from east to west in the GG. Furthermore, temporal trend analysis showed that extreme SWH exhibited an increasing trend of 0.0041 m y^–1 throughout the 37-year period; by season, it exhibited a declining trend of ?0.0005 m y^–1 in winter, and an increasing trend of 0.0048 m y^?1 in summer. The observed increasing positive trend of extreme SWH westward in the GG, however, suggests an increasing storminess towards the western part of the gulf, with potential implications for coastal flooding and erosion, and consequences for coastal structures.     

Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.     

基于暴雨衰减特性的上海市长历时综合暴雨公式

编制适用于不同历时的综合暴雨公式是协调城市管网排水与区域防洪治涝的重要基础。选用上海市代表雨量站徐家汇站65 a实测雨量资料,建立不同重现期暴雨强度与历时关系,解析暴雨衰减规律,编制单一重现期暴雨公式,结合雨力公式推求适用不同重现期的长历时综合暴雨公式,并推导出暴雨重现期公式。结果表明:不同重现期1~24 h历时暴雨强度均以0.74的衰减指数衰减,据此推求的长历时综合暴雨公式可计算1~24 h任意历时、2~100 a任意重现期的设计暴雨,且平均相对和平均绝对均方根误差分别为1.9%和0.009 mm/min,符合规范要求;暴雨重现期公式可估算1~24 h历时内任意场次暴雨的重现期,高效地服务于城市洪涝防治决策。成果已纳入上海市治涝地方标准,对其他城市具有参考价值。     

土壤动物对鄱阳湖湿地冬季凋落物分解过程的影响

为了研究湿地土壤动物对凋落物分解速率以及对土壤养分归还的影响,于2017年11月份在鄱阳湖湿地收集苔草(Carex cinerascens)、南荻(Triarrhena lutarioriparia)和芦苇(Phragmites australis) 3种植物的凋落物,利用凋落物袋法开展原位的模拟实验研究中使用了网孔大小分别为4.5 mm(大)和0.1 mm(小)的分解袋来对比分析土壤动物的影响结果表明:不同物种之间凋落物分解速率有差异,苔草的分解速率显著大于南荻和芦苇,南荻与芦苇的分解速率差异不明显;凋落物的分解速率与凋落物总有机碳和总氮的积累量(NAI_(TOC)/NAI_(TN))呈负相关,与残余凋落物质量呈负相关,与凋落物总磷含量呈正相关;凋落物总氮含量在不同物种凋落物中差异明显,表现为苔草芦苇南荻,并且与分解速率的大小关系相对应,因此高氮植物凋落物的分解速率较快;土壤动物能够提高分解速率,促进凋落物营养元素的释放,进而调节凋落物中C、N、P元素向土壤养分库的归还过程本研究将为湿地生态系统的营养元素循环研究提供科学数据.     

基于多波束测深的海底沉管基槽回淤监测与分析

应用了多波束技术,分析了海洋环境和气候条件下的回淤情况,实现了港珠澳大桥海底隧道基槽开挖回淤分析原位测试、施工后数据的收集和处理。