Flood estimation in Mahanadi river system,India using partial duration series

Flood frequency analysis is a pre-requisite for setting up and safeguarding of many hydraulic structures, such as dams, barrages, check-dams, culverts and urban drainage systems. In the flood frequency analysis, partial duration series (PDS) may be considered when dealing with values exceeding certain limits causing floods. In fact, the PDS is capable of getting more information about extreme events than the annual maximum series (AMS). Additionally, an assumption that, the magnitude of the extreme events of a PDS is best described by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The present work investigates the at-site flood frequency analysis to find the average number of peaks (λ) for modelling the PDS on the basis of the PDS/GP assumption and variability in the GP parameters coupled with the quantile estimation with an increase in the value of average number of peaks (λ) each year in the Mahanadi river system, Odisha, India. Also, to verify the PDS/GP assumption we tested seven different frequency distributions (Exponential, Gumbel, logistics, generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal (LN), generalized logistics (GL) and Pearson Type 3). Extensive daily discharge data collected from 23 gauging sites were used for the analysis. The results indicate precision and stability of GP distribution parameters for λ?=?4 for almost all the discharge sites. The peak flood estimated for various return periods in the Mahanadi river system using GP distribution is endowed with high correlation statistics for this λ value.     

中日城市化的比较与启示

通过对中日两国城市化进程的比较分析，发现产业聚集、交通设施和要素流动等因素对城市化进程有重要影响。文章指出大城市的发展速度和效率要高于小城镇，因此，大城市优先发展是中国城市化的必由之路。而且政府对城市规模的规划事实上是无效的，应减少对城市发展的控制。最后，提出了要优先发展大城市，增强要素流动性。引导城市间产业分工和聚集，加强交通网络尤其是城际快速交通的建设等几点启示。     

绳索取心钻进中顶漏钻进工艺实践

2020年,宁夏地质矿产勘查院在宁夏中宁县烟洞山地区实施了50个石灰岩勘查钻孔。由于该矿区灰岩地层裂隙发育,普遍存在严重漏失现象,绝大多数钻孔出现冲洗液失返性漏失,施工初期,发生了2起烧钻事故,钻探成本居高不下。为了完成钻探施工任务和节约成本,项目组从钻孔结构、钻头选型、钻进参数及泵量优化入手,摸索出一套绳索取心钻进中的顶漏钻进施工工艺,采用清水代替冲洗液,同时严格控制各项钻进技术参数,顺利完成了全部钻探施工任务,平均台月效率883 m,平均岩心采取率98%,有效提高了施工效率,降低了钻探成本,为地方发展提供了有力资源保障。     

Implicit integration of simple breakage constitutive model for crushable granular materials: A numerical test

In the context of the recently developed breakage mechanics that is based on thermodynamics principles, this paper presents a mathematical modelling procedure to implement the simple (i.e., linear elastoplastic) breakage constitutive model using finite element analysis (FEA) with illustrations by engineering applications. More informative mathematical derivation procedures of energy dissipations, plastic potential, yield function and non-associated flow rules are presented. In contrast, the existing relevant publications often lack sufficient elaboration, leaving knowledge gaps in the full understanding the model. This is followed by a series of numerical simulations in ABAQUS to test the model at the constitutive level. Various isotropic and triaxial shear tests in drained or undrained conditions are tested to illustrate the key features of the breakage model, which seem to be overlooked in the literature. Finally, a few numerical results are compared with experimental shear tests to demonstrate the ability of the simple breakage model in reflecting mechanical responses of crushable granular aggregates.     

滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计

滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害,需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计。以深圳市西乡河为例,采用年最大值法（AM）和超定量序列法（POT）两种选样方法,基于Copula方法模拟24 h暴雨遭遇日高潮位的联合分布特征,对比雨潮遭遇传统重现期和二次重现期差异,根据同频法和权函数法反推计算雨潮设计组合值。结果表明:雨潮边缘分布最优模型均为广义正态分布（GNO）,不同选样方法雨量分布模型参数差异明显。雨潮之间呈现较弱的正相依性,Archimedean Copulas均能较好地模拟雨潮遭遇联合分布特征,最优模型为Gumbel-Hougaard Copula。同频法反推雨潮设计组合值,二次重现期雨量和潮位均大于传统联合重现期,POT选样的潮位大于AM。权函数法选出的雨潮设计组合值,偏重于较高的潮位,雨量设计值较小。当明确了选样方法、联合分布模型和重现期类型,给定联合重现期的雨潮设计组合值是个此消彼长的过程,若选择较大的雨量设计值,则潮位值变小,反之亦然。从防洪潮设计安全角度考虑,POT选样方法及二次重现期设计更为安全。     

导管架式海洋平台结构极限承载力分析的整体推进法及其软件

根据非线性有限元逐步分析的思想,以已有的结构弹性分析软件为计算核心,提出了一种近似分析结构极限承载力的方法——整体推进法;采用整体推进法,以导管架式海洋平台结构线弹性分析软件ＥＮＳＡ为计算核心,考虑结构构件的损伤影响和维修加固效果,编制了导管架式海洋平台结构极限承载力近似分析软件ＵＡＰ,为导管架式海洋平台结构的安全度评定提供了方法和手段;最后对渤海八号生产／储油平台在１９９３年的状态和ＪＺ２０２ＭＵＱ平台的完好状态进行了极限承载力分析     

石材与人类

随着人类文明的进步与发展,石材的应用在不同的国家和民族形成了各自的地域文化和民族文化,中国是世界上应用石材最早的国家之一,有着悠久的历史,是中国民族文化不可分割的一部分,近年来,随着对石材深加工的深入研究,使天然石材越来越显露出它的艺术魅力。     

Non-stationary future return levels for extreme rainfall over Extremadura (southwestern Iberian Peninsula)

Based on a previous study for temperature, a new method for the calculation of non-stationary return levels for extreme rainfall is described and applied to Extremadura, a region of southwestern Spain, using the peaks-over-threshold approach. Both all-days and rainy-days-only datasets were considered and the 20-year return levels expected in 2020 were estimated taking different trends into account: first, for all days, considering a time-dependent threshold and the trend in the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution; and second, for rainy days only, considering how the mean, variance, and number of rainy days evolve. Generally, the changes in mean, variance and number of rainy days can explain the observed trends in extremes, and their extrapolation gives more robust estimations. The results point to a decrease of future return levels in 2020 for spring and winter, but an increase for autumn.     

多尺度视角下的青藏高原水资源短缺估算及空间格局

青藏高原水资源总量丰富,但由于水资源量与用水量在空间上分布不均衡,部分人口、城镇密集地区水资源短缺严重。本研究在多源数据的基础上,通过空间分析、降尺度处理等,建立了青藏高原省区、市域、县域空间尺度的水资源与用水量数据集。通过比较5、10、20、30年重现期多空间尺度的水资源短缺程度,分析水资源短缺在青藏高原的尺度效应,揭示青藏高原水资源短缺格局与特征,识别面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。结果表明,青藏高原在省区尺度无水资源短缺;在15个市域单元中,有3个市域出现水资源短缺;在115个县域单元中,有29个县域呈现出不同程度的水资源短缺,水资源短缺县域主要集中在青海省的河湟谷地、柴达木盆地与西藏自治区的一江两河流域等人口、城镇密集区域。总体而言,由于较大空间尺度地理单元内部各县域用水强度差异,在县域尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积大于市域与省区尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。以县域为基本单元,发现青海省与西藏自治区30年重现期面临水资源短缺的人口占总人口的56.4%,出现水资源短缺的面积占总面积的10.4%。县域之间水资源短缺指数秩相关系数计算结果显示,省区内部各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性较大,而省区之间各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性相对随机。研究结果为制定青藏高原水资源短缺管理对策、促进区域城镇化与资源环境协调发展提供科学依据。     

山西省不同重现期下电线覆冰厚度空间分布及区划

利用山西省18个积冰站电线积冰观测资料和91个气象站常规观测资料,采用逐步回归分析方法,针对不同气候区分别构建电线覆冰设计冰厚的气象估算模型,推算各站30 a、50 a、100 a重现期下的设计冰厚。在此基础上,结合DEM数据和电网运行覆冰观测资料,对设计冰厚进行地形订正和易冰区微地形运行经验修正,最终得到山西省电网电线覆冰厚度空间分布及区划结果。结果表明：(1)山西省电线覆冰的设计冰厚整体与气温、相对湿度、风速、水汽压等密切相关,其中高山区的设计冰厚还与降水量、日照时数关系密切,且受连续3 d的气象条件影响,而丘陵和平原区则与当日和前一日或前二日的气象条件密切相关;(2)构建的分区设计冰厚气象估算模型对各气候区的覆冰厚度模拟效果较好,估算偏差五台山前约2 mm,其余地区小于1.2 mm;(3)地形订正后的结果更为合理地反映山西省各重现期下电线覆冰厚度的空间特征,即覆冰厚度随纬度降低而减小,中、重冰区主要分布在恒山、五台山、管涔山、吕梁山、太岳山和太行山等高海拔地区,而沿黄河一带和盆地为轻冰区,且盆地覆冰最轻;(4)易覆冰区经运行经验修正后,其覆冰厚度能够更加精确表达局部微地形区覆冰真...