RETURN PERIOD AND THE TREND OF EXTREME DISASTROUS RAINSTORM EVENTS IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

A provincial Disaster-causing Rainstorm Severity Index (DRaSI) is introduced to quantify the relationship between rainfall and its disastrous impacts on Zhejiang province of China, shortened as ZJ-DRaSI. ZJ-DRaSI is set up based on the DRaSI for single stations in combination with the coverage of rainstorms. The probability distribution function (PDF) of ZJ-DRaSI between 1971 and 2015 can be well fitted by the Wakeby Distribution with five parameters. It is found that decadal (e.g. 10yr, 20yr, and so on) return period values of ZJ-DRaSI related to typhoons are generally lower than that of non-typhoon events, implying that disastrous non-typhoon events have a higher frequency of occurrence. The extreme typhoon events have a significant cycle of 22.5 years, while the non-typhoon events have a significant cycle of 15 years. Both are currently at the high-value phase. The annual extreme value of ZJ-DRaSI exhibits an increasing trend of approximately 15% every 10 years.     

变化环境下西江北江枯水流量联合分布分析

基于Clayton copula和Kendall分布函数分析广东西江马口站和北江三水站枯水流量的联合分布及其风险概率。根据两站流量之间的时空关联与变异,以1959-2010年西江马口站历年连续7日平均最小流量和对应期间的北江三水站枯水流量为样本,分别计算1959-1985年和1986-2010年两个时段(分别称为样本A和样本B)的西江北江枯水流量联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的设计分位数。结果表明:①样本B中马口站的枯水流量设计值小于样本A相应重现期设计值,三水站则显著增大;②1985年后西江和北江枯水流量同频率遭遇的可能性较前期明显减小;③二次重现期所对应的累积频率代表了特定设计频率情况下西江和北江枯水流量遭遇的风险率;④由更严谨的二次重现期计算的马口站枯水流量最大可能设计值Q_7d,T=20a、Q_7d,T=10a和Q_7d,T=2a设计值或更适合分别作为西江三角洲供水规划、生态需水和调水压咸设计参考值。     

华南沿海深水区不同重现期设计波浪的估算方法

根据华南沿海近３１年热带风暴及台风的天气图,分析统计出该海区不同纬度处台风中心气压、台风移动速度的长期概率分布。从这些概率分布曲线可得到不同重现期的设计台风,再用Ｂｒｅｔｓｃｈｎｅｉｄｅｒ１９７２年的半经验公式即可快速估算出不同纬度处的不同重现期的最大设计波浪及最大设计风速。该法效果良好,可供海洋工程可行性研究阶段参考使用。     

旅游发展与乡村劳动力回流研究——以西递村为例

采取社会资本的研究视角,以安徽省南部世界文化遗产地西递村旅游发展与社会经济变迁的基本事实为案例,主要提出了一种对乡村外出劳动力向原社区回流并参与非农产业生产现象的社会经济解释。研究发现:①社区按年向有本社区户口的普通社区成员提供总收入相当比例的稳定收入,是吸引外出劳动力回流的重要原因;②社会资本和社会关系网络的效力在社区的空间范围之内才能得到发挥,是社区精英人物及与其有亲密关系的社区成员留守或回流的原因。     

Uncertainty assessment in the prediction of extreme rainfall events: an example from the central Spanish Pyrenees

Extreme rainfall events occur frequently in the central Pyrenees, but they are responsible for mass movements and short, very intense erosion periods, accompanied at times by loss of human life and high costs of infrastructure. This paper tries to assess the existence of patterns in the spatial distribution of maximum precipitation. The calculation of return periods of the most intense rainfall demonstrates that in the Pyrenees it exhibits an erratic spatial and temporal distribution and can be extremely localized. In the case of precipitation between 150 and 200 mm in 24 h, some influence from the surrounding relief has been found, but this is not the case for precipitation exceeding 200 mm, characterized by the absence of patterns governing their spatial distribution. Geomorphological approaches are, therefore, the only way for assessing the areas more subject to hydromorphological risks. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An efficient methodology for estimating irrigation return flow coefficients of irrigated crops at watershed and seasonal scale

Irrigation return flow coefficients, i.e. the ratio between the quantity of water returned from the cultivated area to the groundwater system and the amount of abstraction, vary by more than 50% for rice cultivation using standing water irrigation to 0% in the case of drip irrigation technique. This component of the groundwater budget plays an important role, particularly in intensively irrigated areas. Thus, to avoid any inaccurate aquifer budgeting, modelling and consequently any erroneous watershed management, this component needs to be accurately assessed for a particular time‐step (e.g. weekly, seasonally) onto the studied area. The present paper proposes a cost‐effective and useful methodology for assessing irrigation return flow coefficients (C_f = irrigation return flow/pumping flow) based on (i) basic crops field survey and meteorological data and (ii) the use of a simple hydraulic model that combines both water balance technique and unsaturated/saturated flow theory. An attempt to estimate the uncertainty of irrigation return flow coefficient estimates based on the uncertainty introduced by the pumping and the natural spatial variability of the soil characteristics is also proposed. Results have been compared to real field conditions and allow us to (i) estimate the uncertainty and (ii) validate and demonstrate the robustness of the applied methodology. The proposed methodology allows relatively good estimates of the irrigation return flow coefficients at watershed and seasonal scale. The irrigation return flow coefficients are calculated as: 51 ± 8% in rainy season (Kharif) and 48 ± 4% in summer (Rabi) for rice; 26 ± 11% in rainy season and 24 ± 4% in summer for vegetables; 13 ± 8% in rainy season and 11 ± 3% in summer for flowers. These results were found to be consistent with the existing literature. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

福建省沙埕港百年一遇台风风暴潮的计算

研究了福建省沙埕港风暴潮状况,根据收集的沙埕验潮站连续50a(1956-2005)的台风过程增水资料以及西北太平洋57 a 的台风资料,采用皮尔逊Ⅲ统计法和数值法分别计算了沙埕港的100a一遇台风暴潮和 100a一遇最大台风暴潮,并得到了产生这两种台风增水的台风路径及强度等台风参数.沙埕港100a一遇台风暴潮为198 cm,100a一遇最大台风暴潮为243 cm,其中产生100a一遇台风暴潮的台风移向为NW方向,移速为19km/h,路径位于沙埕港南12km;产生100a一遇最大台风暴潮的台风移向为 NW 方向,移速为19 km/h,路径位于沙埕港南24km.计算结果为福建沿海海洋工程项目的建设提供了重要参考依据.     

Effect of overpumping and irrigation stress on hydrochemistry and hydrodynamics of a Saharan oasis groundwater system

Stepwise hydrochemical and isotope-based methodology was adopted to identify mineralization processes, assess the impact of resources overexploitation and flood irrigation, and conceptualize groundwater hydrodynamics in the Djérid aquifer system, Tunisia. The study demonstrates that the main processes controlling groundwater geochemistry are dissolution of evaporates and phosphate-bearing rocks, cation exchange, mixing between high and low TDS end-members, and irrigation return flow. Interpretation of isotope data demonstrates that the deep aquifer was mostly recharged by late Pleistocene palaeowater, while the shallow aquifer is entirely recharged by return flow. The intermediate aquifer groundwater is actually a mixing of early to middle Holocene palaeowater, late Pleistocene deep aquifer palaeowater and return flow waters. The established conceptual model shows that deep and shallow groundwater leakages into the intermediate aquifer are enhanced by the presence of deep faults, the high hydraulic head of the deep aquifer, the overexploitation of the intermediate aquifer, and the long-term flood irrigation.     

Techniques for assessing water infrastructure for nonstationary extreme events: a review

Statistical and physically-based methods have been used for designing and assessing water infrastructure such as spillways and stormwater drainage systems. Traditional approaches assume that hydrological processes evolve in an environment where the hydrological cycle is stationary over time. However, in recent years, it has become increasingly evident that in many areas of the world the foregoing assumption may no longer apply, due to the effect of anthropogenic and climatic induced stressors that cause nonstationary conditions. This has attracted the attention of national and international agencies, research institutions, academia, and practicing water specialists, which has led to developing new techniques that may be useful in those cases where there is good evidence and attribution of nonstationarity. We review the various techniques proposed in the field and point out some of the challenges ahead in future developments and applications. Our review emphasizes hydrological design to protect against extreme events such as floods and low flows.     

基于Copula函数的中国东部季风区干旱风险研究

利用1961~2016年的中国地面降水月值0.5°×0.5°格网数据集计算了中国东部季风区不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数,并结合游程理论识别气象干旱事件。常规的单变量和基于Copula函数的双变量频率分析分别用来描述干旱事件的干旱历时和干旱烈度。结果表明：① 3个月时间尺度和6个月时间尺度的干旱特征空间格局非常相似,但与12个月时间尺度的干旱特征空间格局差异较大;② 各时间尺度的干旱历时和干旱烈度均呈正相关,即具有较长干旱历时的地区往往也是干旱烈度较大的区域;③ 西南区、长江下游地区、黄淮海区北部和南部、内蒙古东部和黑龙江省东部干旱风险较高,而长白山地区、松嫩平原和珠江流域干旱风险较低。研究结果可为中国东部季风区的干旱区划及旱灾风险评估提供科学依据。