Probability maps of landslide reactivation derived from tree-ring records: Pra Bellon landslide, southern French Alps

Probability maps of landslide reactivation are presented for the Pra Bellon landslide located in the southern French Alps based on results obtained with dendrogeomorphic analysis. Spatiotemporal patterns of past landslide activity was derived from tree-ring series of 403 disturbed mountain pine trees growing in the landslide body. In total, 704 growth disturbances were identified in the samples indicating 22 reactivation phases of the landslide body between 1910 and 2011. The mean return period was 4.5 years. Given the spatiotemporal completeness of the reconstruction, probabilities of landslide reactivation were computed and illustrated using a Poisson distribution model and for 5, 20, 50, and 100 years. Probability of landslide reactivation is highest in the central part of the landslide body and increases from 0.13 for a 5-year period to 0.94 for a 100-year period. Conversely, probabilities of reactivation are lower at its margins. The proposed method differs from conventional approaches based on statistical analyses or physical modeling that have demonstrated to have limitations in the prediction of spatiotemporal reactivation of landslides. Our approach is, in contrast, based on extensive data on past landslides and therefore allowed determination of quantitative probability maps of reactivation derived directly from the frequency of past events. This approach is considered a valuable tool for land managers in charge of protecting and forecasting people and their assets from the negative effects of landslides as well as for those responsible for land use planning and management. It demonstrates the reliability of dendrogeomorphic mapping that should be used systematically in forested shallow landslides.     

大兴安岭地区地闪回击辐射场特征

利用慢电场变化测量仪所获取的观测资料详细分析了大兴安岭地区地闪回击辐射场特征。结果表明,35次正地闪首次回击的慢前沿、10%～90%平均上升时间分别为7.8μs、4.5μs,其中11次正地闪首次回击的过零时间、负反冲深度平均值分别为34μs、23%。76次负地闪首次回击的慢前沿、10%～90%平均上升时间分别为3.5μs、1.9μs,继后回击的慢前沿为1.4μs,其中15次负地闪首次回击的过零时间、负反冲深度平均值分别为51μs、52%。另外,正地闪首次回击的半峰值宽度大于负地闪首次回击,平均值分别为13.6μs、5.6μs。与国内外已有结果的进一步对比发现,大兴安岭地区的地闪回击辐射场特征与瑞典、美国弗罗里达的地闪回击辐射场特征有较好的一致性,但与我国内陆高原的地闪辐射场特征有明显差异。     

四川省暴雨过程综合评估模型的研究及建立

利用1961-2013年四川省156个国家级气象观测站的逐日降水资料,按照暴雨过程的识别标准,统计得到851次暴雨过程。选取了4项适用于四川省天气气候特征的暴雨过程评价指标,依据历史重现期划分出各指标的等级标准,并利用欧氏距离函数建立了暴雨过程等级评估模型。为能全面反映整个暴雨过程的强度,构建了一个物理意义清晰的暴雨过程综合强度评估模型。该模型客观地考虑了4项指标的权重及其自身变率,对暴雨过程的描述更加科学。通过对历史暴雨过程进行评估分析,发现评估结果与历史灾害事件的记载在时间和强度上具有较好的一致性,评估效果理想,可满足四川省暴雨天气过程定量评估业务的需求。     

Multiple pulses in dE/dt and the fine-structure of E during the onset of first return strokes in cloud-to-ocean lightning

We have analyzed the fine-structure of 131 electric field (E) waveforms that were radiated during the onset of first return strokes in cloud-to-ocean lightning. The dE/dt waveforms were recorded using an 8-bit waveform digitizer sampling at 100 MHz, and the E waveforms were sampled at 10 MHz using a 10-bit digitizer. 49 (or 37%) of the dE/dt waveforms contain one or more large pulses within ± 1 μs of the largest (or dominant) peak in dE/dt, i.e. within an interval from − 1 μs to + 1 μs, where t = 0 μs is the time of the dominant peak, and 37 (or 28%) have one or more large pulses in the interval from 4 μs before to 1 μs before the dominant peak, i.e. − 4 μs to − 1 μs, and only the dominant peak within ± 1 μs . We give statistics on the amplitude and timing of dE/dt pulses that are near the dominant peak, and we show how the presence of these pulses adds considerable fine-structure to the shape of E_int, the integrated dE/dt waveform, on a time-scale of tens to hundreds of nanoseconds. This fine-structure includes fast pulses near the beginning of the slow front, large pulses and shoulders within the slow front and during the fast-transition, and very narrow peaks in E_int. Our overall conclusion is that the electromagnetic environment near the point(s) where lightning leaders attach to the surface is often more complicated than what would be produced by a single current pulse propagating up a single channel at the time of onset.     

Influence of aquifer heterogeneity and return flow on pumping test data interpretation

Analytical solutions of drawdown in unconfined aquifers are widely applied for determining the specific yield, S_y, and the horizontal and the vertical hydraulic conductivity K_r and K_z, respectively. In many previous studies, estimates of S_y and K_z were observed to be highly variable and physically unrealistic. This has been attributed to the conceptualization of flow above the declining water table and aquifer heterogeneity in the applied models. We present the analysis of time-drawdown data from a pumping test instrumented with depth-differentiated observation piezometers arranged in clusters. Applying homogeneous anisotropic aquifer models in combination with nonlinear least squares parameter identification techniques, the data were analyzed in different groups: analysis of data from individual piezometer clusters and simultaneous analysis of the entire data set from all piezometer clusters (global analysis). From the cluster analyses, estimates of S_y and K_z exhibit large variances and depart from a priori estimates inferred from the hydrostratigraphy. Parameter estimates from the global analysis do not fall within the parameter bounds (minimum and maximum values) defined by the cluster analyses. While heterogeneity appears to be the important reason for large parameter variances, we discuss the influence of rarely considered aquifer return flow on drawdown and the inconsistent results from the cluster and global analyses. We corroborate our findings with data on hydraulic gradients, slug test data, and results from the application of a more realistic numerical flow model.     

Race and Primary,Return, and Onward Interstate Migration

This paper uses the U.S. 1990 Public Use Micro Sample to characterize the 1985-1990 primary, return, and onward interstate migration patterns for blacks and whites. The classification of these three types of migration is based on the state of birth and state of residence at the start and end of the census interval. Major migration streams, migration rates, and net migration are evaluated for each migrant type and compared for blacks and whites. Overall, the migration patterns of blacks resemble those of whites, with an attraction to the South and the Southwest and movement out of the Northeast and the Midwest. Some differences were observed, however, between the two races. Return migration rates were somewhat higher for black migrants as compared with whites, and onward migration rates were lower. Black primary out-migrants represented a larger proportion of the total flows from the southern states as compared with white out-migrant flows, and they represented a larger share of the out-migrants from the rust belt states. The major migration streams also had different regional and national patterns by race and migrant type.     

一次回流降水过程的中尺度分析

该文对１９９１年５月２４－２５日华北回流天气过程作了分析，认为：（１）回流降水结构，在低层东北气流冷垫与中高层西南暖湿气流共同作用下，形成暖锋降水云系，有利于进行人工催化作用；（２）边界层出现冷空气活动，与降水增强有密切联系；（３）深厚的逆温层，同时也是东北风与西南风的过渡层。逆温层上下，风的垂直切变很大，以致整层的理查逊数Ｒｉ＜１，是导致降水增强的一种机制。     

Determinants of International Return Migration Intentions*

This paper analyzes the determinants of international return migration intentions using survey data on guestworkers in Germany, 1970–1989. It is hypothesized that return migration intentions are influenced by personal attributes, residential and job satisfaction, and three time-dependent variables: a temporal trend, a duration effect, and years prior to retirement. The hypotheses are tested using logit models of the intention to return. The results indicate that return intention probabilities are strongly affected by satisfaction and time-dependent variables while the influence of personal attributes is of little importance.     

'Black skins–white masks': Postcolonial reflections on 'race', gender and second generation return migration to the Caribbean

This paper illustrates the opportunities afforded by the adoption of postcolonial discourse in development geography, drawing specifically on issues of transnationalism, hybridity and inbetweeness. The utility of such notions and associated approaches is illustrated by the authors' current research on the migration of young, second generation and foreign-born 'Bajan-Brits' to the small Caribbean island nation of Barbados, the homeland of their parents. Focussing on issues of 'race' and gender, the paper examines the experiences of return migration among this cohort from an interpretative perspective framed within postcolonial discourse. It argues that notwithstanding the considerable sociocultural problems of adjustment encountered, these Bajan-Brit 'returnees' may be seen as occupying positions of relative economic privilege. Theirs is a liminal space derived by virtue of having been born and/or raised in the UK and being of the black 'race'. Accordingly, they are demonstrated to be both advantaged and disadvantaged; both transnational and national; and black but, in some senses, symbolically white.