Preliminary flood frequency estimates for Lebanon

Abstract

This paper describes a first attempt at developing a regional flood estimation methodology for Lebanon. The analyses are based on instantaneous flood peak data for the whole country, and cover the period from the start of observations in the 1930s to the start of the civil war in the mid-1970s. Three main flood-generating zones are identified, and regional flood growth curves are derived for each zone using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution fitted by probability-weighted moments. Typical parameter values are presented, together with regression coefficients for estimating the mean annual flood. Based on this work, several recommendations are made on the future data collection and analysis requirements to develop a national flood estimation methodology for Lebanon.     

Probabilities and return periods of multisite droughts/Probabilités et périodes de retour de sécheresses multi-sites

Abstract

Because droughts cover extensive areas, it is important to consider multisite droughts in a region. Probability distribution of joint droughts at a number of sites is derived assuming that flows are cross-correlated first-order Markov processes. A geometric distribution is found with a parameter that depends on the threshold probability, lag-one autocorrelation coefficients, and the multivariate probability of remaining below the threshold. Computation of the parameter of the geometric distribution is discussed. An expression is obtained for the return period of multisite droughts. Application of the derived expression is shown in an example.     

回流农民工预期购房区位选择及影响因素——以河南省45村为例

基于河南省45村1072份田野调查数据,采用描述统计分析和多水平多元Logistic回归分析方法,探讨回流农民工的预期购房区位和影响因素。研究发现：中心地层级对回流农民工预期购房区位选择具有重要影响,但影响强度与回流者年龄相关,新生代回流者偏向于较高层级中心地,而第一代回流者则青睐于低层级中心地。整体上,户籍所在地县城为回流农民工预期购房区位的首选区位,其次为地级市主城区和村庄,集镇和省城较少。个体特征、资金积累、成婚是影响预期购房区位选择的核心因素,村庄地理环境对预期购房区位选择具有重要影响。回流农民工具有较高的县城和城市购房居住预期,未来将是新型城镇化,尤其是就地城镇化的重要力量,应当稳定和降低城镇房价,以实现回流农民工真正的城镇融入。     

移动IPv6中返回路由过程的安全问题

从移动IPv6工作原理入手，着重对返回路由过程进行了分析。虽然此过程加强了通信节点对移动节点的确认，但是其中仍然存在攻击者冒充测试报文、家乡地址或转交地址的安全威胁，从而达到中断正常通信、窃取信息等目的，所以在此过程中，还要加强对通信节点所处的共享链路保护，以及采取有效的绑定刷新机制，从而实现安全的移动IPv6系统。     

风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述

我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点.     

A Review of “The Experience of Return Migration: Caribbean Perspectives”

Abstract

Commuting in Italy has always been addressed without regard to gender differences. Following the issuance of a comprehensive database by the National Statistical Institute, it is now possible to analyze gender differences in personal mobility for the first time in Italy. For our analyses we used Local Labor Systems (LLS) zoning in lieu of administrative zoning. LLSs are territorial subdivisions based on the principle of a self-contained labor market and are widely used in Italy. This article also reports the results of a multidimensional data analysis aimed at highlighting relations between different gender-based commuting patterns and a set of variables (education level, age, household structure, occupational category, and position, etc.). The analysis points out gender differences in the relationship among commuting and socioeconomic characteristics, reveals that these relationships are in turn related to the economic structure and geographical context of different regional labor markets, and suggests to analysts that they be sensitive to singular context when interpreting the meaning of gender differences in commuting.

     

Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland

Abstract

River flow conditions in many watersheds of Iceland are particularly disturbed during winter by the formation, drifting and accumulation of river ice, whose impact on water encroachment and extent of inundations is not reflected in the discharge records. It is therefore necessary to use river discharge with great caution when assessing the magnitude of past inundations in Iceland, and to give attention to other flood magnitude parameters. A GIS-based methodology is presented that focuses on inundation extent as an alternative parameter for the assessment and ranking of the magnitude of past flooding events in the Ölfusá-Hvítá basin, known as one of the most dangerous flood-prone river complexes in Iceland. Relying ultimately on a macro-scale grid, the method enabled the reconstruction of the extent of inundations, the delineation of the flood plain, and, finally, some estimation of the likelihood of flooding of exposed areas that include marine submergences and river floods for both open water and ice conditions.

Citation Pagneux, E., Gísladóttir, G. & Snorrason, Á. (2010) Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 704–716.     

一种适用于饱和黏土循环动力分析边界面塑性模型的隐式积分算法

修正了传统隐式回映算法,建立了适用于饱和黏土循环动力分析的边界面塑性模型的完全隐式积分格式。该模型基于无弹性域概念和临界状态理论,采用各向同性、运动硬化准则、旋转的边界面,并引入表征土体结构损伤和重塑程度的损伤变量以反映循环载荷作用下饱和黏土的各向异性、刚度、强度软化及塑性变形累积等特征。针对等压固结 和偏压固结 的饱和高岭黏土的不排水三轴试验进行模拟,采用不同的应变增量步长进行计算,并与试验数据对比,结果表明,修正隐式回映算法应用于该类边界面模型的合理性、积分格式的精确性和稳定性;另外,结合有限元软件自动时间步长的增量迭代解法,对饱和黏土应力控制的不排水动三轴试验进行预测,结果表明,修正的适用于该边界面的塑性模型隐式回映算法可以得到比较合理的数值分析结果,能够反映饱和黏土的循环刚度的退化和强度的弱化等动力特性。