生态最相关水文指标的优选及其在洞庭湖环境流量估算中的应用

水文改变指标(IHA)能够较为全面地描述水文状况,在评估水文情势改变及其生态系统影响方面具有广泛的应用.尽管该指标体系较为完善,但是数量众多的水文变量仍然存在信息冗余问题.根据洞庭湖城陵矶水文站1955-2014年的径流量数据,采用主成分分析(PCA)筛选了生态最相关水文指标(ERHIs),结合ERHIs改进了用于估算环境流量的变化范围法(RVA),并将其应用在洞庭湖出口的环境流量估算中.基于PCA选取了年最大90日流量、年最小3日流量、年最小流量出现时间、3月流量、6月流量、流量逆转次数和低流量年内平均历时7个变量作为洞庭湖出口的ERHIs.纵向和横向的对比分析都表明选取的ERHIs是合理的.ERHIs不仅有效缓解了IHA的冗余性问题,还有利于抓住最关键的生态水文变量.根据ERHIs改进的RVA方法在设定洞庭湖出口环境流量时,极大地简化原来的众多管理目标,对生态水文研究、水资源管理和生态保护都具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义.     

Improving sustainability of urban drainage systems for climate change adaptation using best management practices: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Although the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) in reducing urban flooding is widely recognized, the improved sustainability achieved by implementing BMPs in upstream suburban areas, reducing downstream urban floods, is still debated. This study introduces a new definition of urban drainage system (UDS) sustainability, focusing on BMP usage to enhance system performance after adaptation to climate change. Three types of hydraulic reliability index (HRI) plus robustness and improvability indices were used to quantify the potential enhanced sustainability of the system in a changing climate, together with a climate change adaptability index (CCAI). The sustainability of UDS for the safe conveyance of storm-water runoff was investigated under different land-use scenarios: No BMP, BMP in urban areas, and BMP inside and upstream of urban areas, considering climate change impacts. Rainfall–runoff simulation alongside drainage network modelling was conducted using a storm-water management model (US EPA SWMM) to determine the inundation areas for both base-line and future climatic conditions. A new method for disaggregating daily rainfall to hourly, proposed to provide a finer resolution of input rainfall to SWMM, was applied to a semi-urbanized catchment whose upstream runoff from mountainous areas may contribute to the storm-water runoff in downstream urban parts. Our findings confirm an increase in the number of inundation points and reduction in sustainability indices of UDS due to climate change. The results present an increase in UDS reliability from 4% to 16% and improvements in other sustainability indicators using BMPs in upstream suburban areas compared to implementing them in urban areas.     

基于多元自回归样条的液化侧移灾害评估模型

为了将液化侧移计算方法本土化,本文基于Youd等人收集的液化侧移数据库,采用擅长处理复杂参数维度问题的多元自适应样条回归法（MARS）建立液化侧移计算模型。经验证,该方法建立的模型精度和可靠性都可以通过检验。本文主要内容包括：（1）在本土化过程中,本文选取峰值加速度PGA作为地震动参数,替代现有模型中的M和R,计算结果并未影响液化侧移计算精度;（2）在MARS方法进行建模过程中,对临空和缓坡两种情况的影响因素进行重要性程度计算和筛选;（3）建立两种情况下的液化侧移计算模型,并用F检验法和t检验以及新西兰2010—2011年系列地震中液化侧移数据进行检验,证明本文方法的合理性和可靠性。本文的结果能满足我国相关规范、工程师以及岩土地震工程防灾减灾等方面的需求,还可为地震液化侧移灾害小区划提供理论基础。     

利用自洽方程计算法分析天山中段分量钻孔应变资料可靠性

根据天山中段8套四分量钻孔应变仪观测资料,利用自洽方程计算应变观测的信度,用信度指标检验数据的可靠性,从而进一步用自洽方程计算实际各元件灵敏度的相对大小,并用相对标定的结果,对观测数据进行校正。结果表明:①石场、巴仑台、巴音沟、雀儿沟、榆树沟和库米什台经过校正后,数据观测信度有了明显提升,其中石场和雀儿沟台的数据信度最高;②库米什台校正前数据观测信度较高,因个别“坏点”影响,校正后,观测信度反而下降;③小泉沟和新源台数据信度较低,存在从自洽到失洽的情况,分析认为这可能与系统自身存在问题有关,也有可能是前兆异常,有待进一步研究。     

太湖流域水文遥测系统可靠性分析

水文遥测系统工作制式不同,系统的验收标准也不同,水文遥测系统的组网结构不同,系统可靠性的分析也不同。本文用概率方法对太湖流域水文遥测系统的可靠性进行探讨,对带存储功能的应答系统采用系统可靠度衡量,而不采用月平均数据畅通率衡量;同时讨论不同的系统结构对可靠性的影响,这种以概率统计的方法分析水文遥测系统的可靠性,对水文遥测系统建设的验收标准制定和水文遥测系统结构设计具有重要意义。     

不排水抗剪强度非平稳随机场模拟及边坡可靠度分析

边坡可靠度分析中通常假定采用平稳或准平稳随机场表征土体参数的空间变异性,然而大量现场试验数据表明,土体参数如不排水抗剪强度沿土体埋深常呈现明显的非平稳分布特征,即其均值和标准差均随埋深发生变化,因此亟需发展土体参数非平稳随机场模型及其模拟方法。针对目前不能有效单独模拟土体参数趋势分量和随机波动分量的不确定性,提出了一种有效的不排水抗剪强度参数非平稳随机场模型,并给出了土体参数二维非平稳随机场模拟方法计算流程,同时将新提出的模型与现有非平稳随机场模型及平稳随机场模型进行了系统比较。最后通过不排水饱和黏土边坡算例验证了提出模型的有效性,并揭示了不排水抗剪强度非平稳分布特征对边坡可靠度的影响规律。结果表明：提出模型能够有效地单独模拟土体参数趋势分量和随机波动分量的不确定性,考虑土体参数均值和标准差随埋深增加而增大的特性,可为表征土体参数非平稳分布特征提供了一条有效的途径。此外,与采用非平稳随机场模拟土体参数空间变异性相比,采用常用的平稳随机场模型会低估边坡失效概率,从而造成偏危险的边坡工程设计方案。     

声学应答释放器电路部分可靠性分析

声学应答释放器是一种对可靠性要求很高的海洋环境监测设备,文中对国家海洋技术中心研制的声学应答释放器进行了可靠性分析。首先介绍了声学应答释放器的电路构成及功能;然后依据可靠性建模相关理论完成电路部分可靠性模型建立,依据可靠性模型,预计了设备的固有可靠度;最后有针对性地提出改进措施,用于指导声学应答释放器设计,为释放器技术研究提供计算模型与可借鉴的经验。     

Expected Sliding Distance of Vertical Slit Caisson Breakwater

Evaluating the expected sliding distance of a vertical slit caisson breakwater is proposed. Time history for the wave load to a vertical slit caisson is made. It consists of two impulsive wave pressures followed by a smooth sinusoidal pressure. In the numerical analysis, the sliding distance for an attack of single wave was shown and the expected sliding distance during 50 years was also presented. Those results were compared with a vertical front caisson breakwater without slit. It was concluded that the sliding distance of a vertical slit caisson may be over-estimated if the wave pressure on the caisson is evaluated without considering vertical slit.     

Learning soil parameters and updating geotechnical reliability estimates under spatial variability – theory and application to shallow foundations

ABSTRACT

Field data is commonly used to determine soil parameters for geotechnical analysis. Bayesian analysis allows combining field data with other information on soil parameters in a consistent manner. We show that the spatial variability of the soil properties and the associated measurements can be captured through two different modelling approaches. In the first approach, a single random variable (RV) represents the soil property within the area of interest, while the second approach models the spatial variability explicitly with a random field (RF). We apply the Bayesian concept exemplarily to the reliability assessment of a shallow foundation in a silty soil with spatially variable data. We show that the simpler RV approach is applicable in cases where the measurements do not influence the correlation structure of the soil property at the vicinity of the foundation. In other cases, it is expected to underestimate the reliability, and a RF model is required to obtain accurate results.     

The need for judgement in geotechnical reliability studies

ABSTRACT

A core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability.