National-scale Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk in England and Wales

In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed data and other national datasets, it has become possible to conduct national-scale flood risk assessment in England and Wales. The results of this type of risk analysis can be used to inform policy-making and prioritisation of resources for flood management. It can form the starting point for more detailed strategic and local-scale flood risk assessments. The national-scale risk assessment methodology outlined in this paper makes use of information on the location, standard of protection and condition of flood defences in England and Wales, together with datasets of floodplain extent, topography, occupancy and asset values. The flood risk assessment was applied to all of England and Wales in 2002 at which point the expected annual damage from flooding was estimated to be approximately £1 billion. This figure is comparable with records of recent flood damage. The methodology has subsequently been applied to examine the effects of climate and socio-economic change 50 and 80 years in the future. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed – up to 20-fold increase in real terms economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable primarily to a combination of climate change (in particular sea level rise and increasing precipitation in parts of the UK) and increasing economic vulnerability.     

城市活断层探测中钻孔岩心光释光样品的采集

钻孔岩心测年样品具有较一般地质样品更为复杂的影响因素,样品特征对年龄可靠性有非常重要的影响,且主要受钻进方法和采样过程的制约。采用回转钻进取全心的方法,对光释光测年带来的不确定性影响因素主要有扰动导致软弱土层、砂层的混染;泥浆渗入对样品的污染;挤压和摩擦生热对释光信号的可能影响等。除样品特征外,含水量的变化及放射性平衡状况等对钻孔岩心样品的年龄可能存在影响。释光测年样品的基本要求、测试技术和方法是野外正确采样的依据,针对城市活断层探测工作中钻探任务的一般要求,文中提出了岩心光释光样品采集的建议,并对年代测试时需要考虑的不确定性因素进行了讨论     

Multi‐objective framework for structural model identification

Structural identification based on measured dynamic data is formulated in a multi‐objective context that allows the simultaneous minimization of the various objectives related to the fit between measured and model predicted data. Thus, the need for using arbitrary weighting factors for weighting the relative importance of each objective is eliminated. For conflicting objectives there is no longer one solution but rather a whole set of acceptable compromise solutions, known as Pareto solutions, which are optimal in the sense that they cannot be improved in any objective without causing degradation in at least one other objective. The strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm is used to estimate the set of Pareto optimal structural models and the corresponding Pareto front. The multi‐objective structural identification framework is presented for linear models and measured data consisting of modal frequencies and modeshapes. The applicability of the framework to non‐linear model identification is also addressed. The framework is illustrated by identifying the Pareto optimal models for a scaled laboratory building structure using experimentally obtained modal data. A large variability in the Pareto optimal structural models is observed. It is demonstrated that the structural reliability predictions computed from the identified Pareto optimal models may vary considerably. The proposed methodology can be used to explore the variability in such predictions and provide updated structural safety assessments, taking into consideration all Pareto structural models that are consistent with the measured data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

群桩基础竖向承载力的可靠性分析

由CPT和静载试验结果综合确定钻孔灌注桩竖向极限承载力,以沿深度方向的一维平稳高斯随机场作为桩基土层土性参数的数学模型,利用相关函数法和变异函数法计算土层的相关范围,进而对相同场地各试桩的承载力进行折算后检验其概率分布,并估计有关统计参数;考虑群桩效应,由桩基沉降反算其作用效应,计算单桩及群桩的可靠度指标。并与未采用随机场模型的计算结果相比较,对竖向荷载下桩基可靠性进行了较系统的研究。     

GPS控制网起算点的粗差探测

利用显著性检验方法,探测并剔除了GPS控制网起算点的粗差,增强和提高了GPS网的可靠性和精度,实例表明了其可行性。     

基于载荷试验的青藏铁路试验路堤沉降监测设备可靠性验证

青藏铁路成败的关键在路基工程,而路基工程的关键是冻土问题.为研究填土分选重组试验路堤的承载力状况以及冻土沉降钻孔监测设备的性能和监测结果的可靠性,进行了基于平板载荷试验的冻土沉降监测设备可靠性验证,估算试验路堤的承载力.试验结果表明,将试验路堤土体视为各向同性弹性连续介质模型是合理的;冻土变形监测设备测试结果与利用土介质的各向同性弹性连续介质模型的计算结果相吻合,显示出冻土钻孔变形监测设备具有较高的可靠性.     

β分布的参数确定及其在岩土工程中的应用

对岩土工程中随机变量的空间概率特征进行了统计分析,介绍了确定β分布各参数的迭代方法,提出了经验公式简化迭代过程,有效地处理了随机变量分布范围的估计问题,并阐明了β分布在可靠度领域中的适用性。作为对比,对同一样本采用了其他分布进行拟合。分析结果表明,β分布拟合精度高于其他分布。     

深基坑土钉支护的模糊可靠度分析

介绍了土钉支护体各种破坏模式下失效隶属函数的建立方法,并用模糊可靠度理论对实际基坑边坡工程的土钉支护体进行了可靠度分析,计算过程中部分数据采用了计算机仿真的方法,分析结果与实际相符,表明模糊可靠度理论对基坑土钉支护体进行分析具有一定现实意义。     

Simultaneous Analysis of Qualitative and Quantitative Social Science Data in Conservation

Conservation research includes social as well as natural sciences, and social sciences include qualitative, qualitative, and mixed methods. Most mixed-methods research adopts quantitative and qualitative approaches in parallel or in sequence, using related but distinct sets of data. Transformations of raw data, to apply qualitative and quantitative approaches to the same dataset, are uncommon, and beset by obstacles. I argue that dual analysis of a single dataset can be valuable and sound, subject to four caveats. Authors must: check for adequate sampling as well as theoretical saturation; distinguish clearly between structural and statistical associations; explicitly describe conversion from qualitative constructs and codes, to quantitative categories or other variables; and ensure that precision, reliability and generalizability are considered appropriately within both analyses.     

Historic reconstruction of reservoir topography using contour line interpolation and structure from motion photogrammetry

The geometry of impounded surfaces is a key tool to reservoir storage management and projection. Yet topographic data and bathymetric surveys of average-aged reservoirs may be absent for many regions worldwide. This paper examines the potential of contour line interpolation (TOPO) and Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry to reconstruct the topography of existing reservoirs prior to dam closure. The study centres on the Paso de las Piedras reservoir, Argentina, and assesses the accuracy and reliability of TOPO- and SfM- derived digital elevation models (DEMs) using different grid resolutions. All DEMs were of acceptable quality. However, different interpolation techniques produced different types of error, which increased (or decreased) with increasing (or decreasing) grid resolution as a function of their nature, and relative to the terrain complexity. In terms of DEM reliability to reproduce area–elevation relationships, processing-related disagreements between DEMs were markedly influenced by topography. Even though they produce intrinsic errors, it is concluded that both TOPO and SfM techniques hold great potential to reconstruct the bathymetry of existing reservoirs. For areas exhibiting similar terrain complexity, the implementation of one or another technique will depend ultimately on the need for preserving accurate elevation (TOPO) or topographic detail (SfM).