摄影测量与大地测量观测值联合平差的质量分析

本文通过模拟试验全面分析了摄影测量与大地测量观测值联合平差的质量特点(精度,可靠性,可区分性),据此为联合网的设计提出了具体方案。所得结论对于联合平差的实际应用以及联合平差的智能化实现都有参考价值。     

Assessment of reliability in water distribution networks using entropy based measures

Entropy based expressions for measurement of reliability and redundancy have recently been reported. These measures approach assessment of the reliability of the distribution network from the intrinsic redundancy of the network layout. The paper extends earlier work on entropy functions by including a more explicit statement of the alternate paths available in the network and by recognizing that under certain circumstances, e.g., failure of some part of the network work, an outflow link from a node under normal working condition may become an inflow link to the same node. The measures are assessed by comparison with parameters measuring Nodal Pair Reliability and percentage of flow supplied at adequate pressure for a range of networks and link failure conditions in this networks. The entropy measures are shown to reflect changes in the network reliability, as measured by these two comparative parameters, very well.     

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures

During the life of an offshore structure,its structural strength declines due to various kinds ofdamages related to the time factor.In this paper,four major kinds of damages,including damages causedby fatigue,dent,corrosion and marine life,are discussed.Based on these analyses,formulas for theevaluation of the damaged structure reliability are derived.Furthermore the computer program ISM forthe analysis of structural reliability is developed by the use of Advanced First Order Second Moment meth-od and Monte-Carlo Importance Sampling method.The reliability of a turbular joint and a beam are stu-died as numerical examples.The results show that the theory and the analysis method given in this paperare reasonable and effective.     

Determination of Partial Factors of Breast Wall on Top of Sloping Breakwater

- By applying the theory of structural reliability, reliability analyses for the stability of a breast wall on the top of a sloping breakwater are carried out. Based on the analyses, the method for determining partial action / load factors and partial resistance factors of breast walls is expounded, and the design expressions with partial factors are given. The values of partial action / load factors and partial resistance factors are recommended preliminarily according to the computation for breast walls with typical cross-sections.     

结构模糊可靠性指标的遗传算法

本文基于哈索弗－林德提出的结构可靠性指标β的定义，通过改进的遗传算法，建立了考虑变量服从多种概率发布与相关性及其模糊性的广义随机空间内可靠性指标的计算方法，并且通过结构可靠性指标分析与可靠性优化的实例，验证了算法的可行性与可靠性     

论地震预测(报)现状及基础研究问题

我国的地震预报研究取得了重要进展,在防震减灾事业中目前仍然起着决定性的作用,然而预测（报）的能力仍然较低,对大量的地震仍作不出成功的预测（报）。要显著提高地震预测能力,需要加强基础研究。这种研究应从地震预测（报）能力的现状出发,重点应放在地震前兆异常的成因类别与属性、机理与可靠性等“原始”问题的研究上,而不是回避这些基础问题而去研究那些靠不住的“上层建筑”问题。     

泰安市交通系统抗震可靠性分析

本文根据网络可靠性理论,针对泰安市交通系统网络模型进行抗震分析研究;采用Monte Carlo随机模拟技术,以及道路、桥梁单元可靠性分析方法,给出了不同烈度下网络中各节点的可靠度。分析了网络系统存在的薄弱环节,为泰安市防灾规划提供理论依据。     

断层防水煤柱可靠度分析

为了合理设计防水煤岩柱的宽度,使用了可靠度分析的“JC”方法,分析了水压力、煤层抗张强度及突水系数的不确定性,建立了防水煤柱可靠度分析的极限状态方程。并计算了与防水煤柱有关的可靠度指标、失效概率和安全系数。参考其它事故的死亡率,防水煤柱的失效概率为1× 10 -5~1× 10 -6比较合适。      

基于平均降雨量的路堤稳定可靠性分析

基于平均降雨量概念,考虑降雨的随机性,用改进的JC法和Monte Carlo模拟方法（MCSM）对公路路堤结构边坡进行了可靠度稳定对比分析,且考虑了随机变量为相关任意分布的情况编制了相应程序。根据实测数据,定量分析了路堤边坡土体因降雨而引起的饱和度变化对土体强度参数的影响;此外,对路堤稳定敏感性因素及其可靠度的一些规律进行了一些研究。