BP人工神经网络在小流域径流模拟中的应用

径流量的变化与区域经济社会发展、生态平衡以及水资源管理和水环境保护密切相关,月径流量的研究对水量配置、调度等均具有重要意义。针对小尺度流域普遍存在的资料有限问题,研究BP人工神经网络在华南湿润区小流域月径流模拟的适用性。以滨江流域长序列逐日降水径流资料为基础,采用BP人工神经网络进行月径流量模拟,并将其与径流系数法、新安江模型和HSPF模型所得进行对比分析。研究表明:BP人工神经网络使用简便,变化趋势预测准确,在降水径流模拟方面优势明显,全年确定性系数为0.91,高于径流系数法所得0.85,与新安江模型的0.92、HSPF的0.96相当,具有良好的应用前景,其汛期的模拟效果优于非汛期,但模拟结果相对偏大,存在一定的改进和提高空间。     

Study of seasonal snow cover influencing the ground thermal regime on western flank of Da Xing'anling Mountains, northeastern China

Although many studies relevant to snow cover and permafrost have focused on alpine, arctic, and subarctic areas, there is still a lack of understanding of the influences of seasonal snow cover on the thermal regime of the soils in permafrost regions in the mid-latitudes and boreal regions, such as that on the western flank of the Da Xing'anling(Hinggan) Mountains, northeastern China. This paper gives a detailed analysis on meteorological data series from 2001 to 2010 provided by the Gen'he Weather Station, which is located in a talik of discontinuous permafrost zone and with sparse meadow on the observation field. It is inferred that snow cover is important for the ground thermal regime in the middle Da Xing'anling Mountains. Snow cover of 10-cm in thickness and five to six months in duration(generally November to next March) can reduce the heat loss from the ground to the atmosphere by 28%, and by 71% if the snow depth increases to 36 cm. Moreover, the occurrence of snow cover resulted in mean annual ground surface temperatures 4.7–8.2 °C higher than the mean annual air temperatures recorded at the Gen'he Weather Station. The beginning date for stable snow cover establishment(SE date) and the initial snow depth(SDi) also had a great influences on the ground freezing process. Heavy snowfall before ground surface freeze-up could postpone and retard the freezing process in Gen'he. As a result, the duration of ground freezing was shortened by at least 20 days and the maximum depth of frost penetration was as much as 90 cm shallower.     

北方水稻低温冷害指标持续适用性检验与比较

农业气象指标的可持续适用性检验与比较,对提升农业气象业务能力意义重大。应用北方地区代表县(市)1960—2010年逐日气温资料和历年水稻产量资料,计算冷害温度指标界定水稻冷害发生的正确率,对中国北方水稻延迟型冷害和障碍型冷害常用的指标进行应用效果检验,并比较适用性差异。结果表明,界定水稻延迟型冷害的5—9月气温指标稳定适用,正确率达到78%左右,可持续性好;积温差额指标也比较稳定,可以继续应用;但是积温距平指标判定冷害的正确率较低,多数地方不宜继续使用。界定水稻障碍型冷害的日平均气温、日最低气温及其持续时间指标比较稳定可靠,多数县(市)可以继续应用,但少数县市应暂停使用;日最低气温指标界定冷害的正确率略高于日平均气温指标。多年来,这些指标尽管要素和原理不变,但在适用性及可持续性方面存在一定的年代和区域差异,应选择使用并及时修订过时的指标,以适应气候变化和水稻栽培。     

海带中12 种元素ICP-OES 检测的三种前处理方法对比研究

运用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法(Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometry,ICP-OES)比较研究了干法灰化、湿法消解和微波消解3种前处理方法对海带样品中Se、Fe、Mn、Zn、Ca、Mg、P、As、Cd、Cr、Cu和Pb 12种元素含量测定的影响。结果表明,不同前处理方法对微量元素的测定结果会产生不同程度的影响。干法灰化对易挥发元素As等带来明显的负误差;湿法消解由于加入的消解液量大,对低含量的微量元素常带来较大的试剂空白;微波消解法相对于其他两种前处理方法适于样品的快速消解,具有操作简便、试剂用量少、操作误差小等优点,检测结果具备较高的准确度、精密度和回收率,对海带样品微波消解ICP-OES检测的相对标准偏差为0.29%~2.63%,加标回收率为87.3%~103.6%。微波消解是海带等海洋生物样品中微量元素测定较理想的前处理方法。     

东亚季风指数分类初析

回顾了亚洲季风指数定义方法发展历程。将东亚季风强度指数按定义时所使用的要素类型分类为环流类、温湿类、海陆差异类、方程类和综合类,指出了各类指数的特点及适用范围,并为今后开展相关研究提出一些设想。     

Effect of an earthquake occurrence on the flow intensity of the subsequent events

Aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes. By normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals, periods of time or regions. After applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events (nonaftershocks) in the catalog.Negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time-space vicinity of the main event, when the aftershocks are over. The negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach. Global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withM7 in the first 20–25 years after the events withM8 in their 1^o-vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years. The decrease approximates 32% of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofM>7 events in the vicinities.Self-similar negative aftereffect was observed 3–7 years after 6M<7 events, it totals approximately 18% of the undisturbed intensity. Another type of self-similarity of seismic regime, with respect to the negative aftereffect, is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences. When we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property, for example, for main events withM7 in the catalog with low cut-off limitM=4, the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear. However, the absolute value of the effect is also rather small, about 10%, which means that in 90% of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog.The small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places.     

某引水工程中长输水隧洞断面初选设计分析

断面比选设计是为了研究输水隧洞在复杂的地质条件中能够更好的施工,在运行期具有更好的过流能力,并且在建设中节省工程投资而进行的不同断面设计分析。以在建某长输水隧洞为例,选择城门洞型和马蹄形两种不同设计断面,从水力参数设计、施工方法、工程量及工程投资等各个方面进行对比分析计算,选择出易于施工,水利条件好并节省投资的设计断面,再进行输水隧洞正常水深、临界水深、临界底坡的水力计算,并分析了设计断面的水力特性。最后,提出了在输水隧洞断面设计上的几点建议,供水利设计和施工人员参考。     

华北克拉通和西澳克拉通金矿床对比研究及其对中国金矿勘查的启示

华北克拉通固结时间较晚,活动性较强,金矿床赋矿围岩以中深变质的镁铁质岩石和花岗岩类岩石为主,大规模金矿床一般产在韧、脆性剪切叠加的构造带中,成矿时代在188~46Ma之间.西澳克拉通固结较早,稳定性较好,金矿床主要产在太古宙花岗岩-绿岩地体中,一般产在韧-脆性剪切过渡带或叠加的构造带中,金矿化年龄在2640~2600Ma之间.华北克拉通金矿床比西澳金矿床形成晚,受剥蚀程度低,许多矿床尚未出露地表,在深部寻找盲矿体前景可观.     

基于海陆对比建立苏北—南黄海盆地晚二叠世—早三叠世地层格架

以层序地层学和沉积学理论为指导,依托大陆架科学钻探CSDP-2井并结合WX5-ST1井、N5井及南京江宁地区典型剖面,利用岩性、测井、古生物等资料,在识别苏北-南黄海盆地各级层序界面的基础上,将研究区上二叠统-下三叠统划分为2个长期基准面旋回（LC1、LC2）和3个中期基准面旋回（MC1-MC3）。研究表明,南黄海盆地与苏北盆地实为被海岸线分割的同一沉积盆地,其上二叠统-下三叠统具有良好的可对比性,其中：LC1长期基准面旋回（上二叠统）不对称性明显,最大海泛面MFS1对应于龙潭组中下部浅海陆棚相的泥岩,LC2长期基准面旋回（下三叠统）因后期印支运动抬升剥蚀,仅存基准面上升半旋回;研究区MC1旋回期（龙潭组）主要发育潮坪、泻湖、三角洲等海陆过渡相,各地水深相差不大;MC2、MC3时期（大隆组、青龙组）发育浅海陆棚、潮坪、泻湖及碳酸盐岩台地等沉积相,水体演变为南西深而北东浅,分析认为是东吴运动时期盆地差异抬升的结果。     

基于点云密度特征的滑坡位移监测方法

激光扫描仪对同一目标两次采集的点并不重合,无法通过点云的直接比较快速确定滑坡位移。考虑到单个点云位置的不确定性和区域点云密度的稳定性,将点云的密度作为滑坡表面变形的表征,提出了基于点云密度特征的滑坡位移监测方法。将离散的三维点云转化为二维的密度图像,再利用粒子图像测速技术分析位移前后两幅点云密度图像的相关性,从而计算栅格图像中各子集的相对位移值;当各子集的位移全部计算完成后,得到目标区域的平面位移场。室内块体移动试验表明该方法的计算精度受变形梯度的影响,在地表变化剧烈处会产生一定程度的误差,且子集相关性系数无法达到1。在黄藏寺滑坡的位移监测中,利用本方法识别出了边坡的变动区域,计算出了滑坡的平面位移场,直观地反映了滑坡表面变形状况,验证了该方法的实用性。