Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

Agricultural effluent control under uncertainty: An inexact double-sided fuzzy chance-constrained model

An inexact double-sided fuzzy chance-constrained programming (IDFCCP) method was developed in this study and applied to an agricultural effluent control management problem. IDFCCP was formulated through incorporating interval linear programming (ILP) into a double-sided fuzzy chance-constrained programming (DFCCP) framework, and could be used to deal with uncertainties expressed as not only possibility distributions associated with both left- and right-hand-side components of constraints but also discrete intervals in the objective function. The study results indicated that IDFCCP allowed violation of system constraints at specified confidence levels, where each confidence level consisted of two reliability scenarios. This could lead to model solutions with high system benefits under acceptable risk magnitudes. Furthermore, the introduction of ILP allowed uncertain information presented as discrete intervals to be communicated into the optimization process, such that a variety of decision alternatives can be generated by adjusting the decision-variable values within their intervals. The proposed model could help decision makers establish various production patterns with cost-effective water quality management schemes under complex uncertainties, and gain in-depth insights into the trade-offs between system economy and reliability.     

Parameter identification of framed structures using an improved finite element model‐updating method—Part I: formulation and verification

In this study, we formulate an improved finite element model‐updating method to address the numerical difficulties associated with ill conditioning and rank deficiency. These complications are frequently encountered model‐updating problems, and occur when the identification of a larger number of physical parameters is attempted than that warranted by the information content of the experimental data. Based on the standard bounded variables least‐squares (BVLS) method, which incorporates the usual upper/lower‐bound constraints, the proposed method (henceforth referred to as BVLSrc) is equipped with novel sensitivity‐based relative constraints. The relative constraints are automatically constructed using the correlation coefficients between the sensitivity vectors of updating parameters. The veracity and effectiveness of BVLSrc is investigated through the simulated, yet realistic, forced‐vibration testing of a simple framed structure using its frequency response function as input data. By comparing the results of BVLSrc with those obtained via (the competing) pure BVLS and regularization methods, we show that BVLSrc and regularization methods yield approximate solutions with similar and sufficiently high accuracy, while pure BVLS method yields physically inadmissible solutions. We further demonstrate that BVLSrc is computationally more efficient, because, unlike regularization methods, it does not require the laborious a priori calculations to determine an optimal penalty parameter, and its results are far less sensitive to the initial estimates of the updating parameters. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using a groundwater quality negotiation support system to change land-use management near a drinking-water abstraction in the Netherlands

A negotiation support system (NSS) was developed to solve groundwater conflicts that arose during land-use management. It was set up in cooperation with the stakeholders involved to provide information on the impact of land use, e.g., agriculture, nature (forested areas), recreation, and urban areas, on the quality of both infiltrating and abstracted groundwater. This NSS combined simulation programs that calculate (1) the concentrations of nitrate in shallow groundwater for each land-use area and (2) the transport of nitrate in the groundwater-saturated zone. The user interface of the NSS enabled scenario analyses. The NSS was validated at a drinking-water abstraction near Holten (the Netherlands) using a spatial planning process aimed at sustainable land-use and groundwater-resource management. Two land-use scenarios were considered: a base scenario reflecting the autonomous development and an adapted land-use scenario. The calculated results for shallow groundwater provided an explicit spatial overview of the impact of historical land use and N application on the quality of abstracted groundwater as well as insight into the impact of changes in land use and N application. Visualization of the conflicting interests of agriculture and the drinking-water abstraction helped all stakeholders accept the necessary changes in land use identified by the adapted land-use scenario of the NSS. These changes were included in the preferred land-use management option in the regional planning process, which has since been formalized. The NSS provided system insight, scoping analyses, and education, in addition to generating quantitative information on the impact of land-use functions on groundwater quality.     

Katla volcano,Iceland: magma composition,dynamics and eruption frequency as recorded by Holocene tephra layers

The Katla volcano in Iceland is characterized by subglacial explosive eruptions of Fe–Ti basalt composition. Although the nature and products of historical Katla eruptions (i.e. over the last 1,100 years) at the volcano is well-documented, the long term evolution of Katla’s volcanic activity and magma production is less well known. A study of the tephra stratigraphy from a composite soil section to the east of the volcano has been undertaken with emphasis on the prehistoric deposits. The section records ∼8,400 years of explosive activity at Katla volcano and includes 208 tephra layers of which 126 samples were analysed for major-element composition. The age of individual Katla layers was calculated using soil accumulation rates (SAR) derived from soil thicknesses between ¹⁴C-dated marker tephra layers. Temporal variations in major-element compositions of the basaltic tephra divide the ∼8,400-year record into eight intervals with durations of 510–1,750 years. Concentrations of incompatible elements (e.g. K₂O) in individual intervals reveal changes that are characterized as constant, irregular, and increasing. These variations in incompatible elements correlate with changes in other major-element concentrations and suggest that the magmatic evolution of the basalts beneath Katla is primarily controlled by fractional crystallisation. In addition, binary mixing between a basaltic component and a silicic melt is inferred for several tephra layers of intermediate composition. Small to moderate eruptions of silicic tephra (SILK) occur throughout the Holocene. However, these events do not appear to exhibit strong influence on the magmatic evolution of the basalts. Nevertheless, peaks in the frequency of basaltic and silicic eruptions are contemporaneous. The observed pattern of change in tephra composition within individual time intervals suggests different conditions in the plumbing system beneath Katla volcano. At present, the cause of change of the magma plumbing system is not clear, but might be related to eruptions of eight known Holocene lavas around the volcano. Two cycles are observed throughout the Holocene, each involving three stages of plumbing system evolution. A cycle begins with an interval characterized by simple plumbing system, as indicated by uniform major element compositions. This is followed by an interval of sill and dyke system, as depicted by irregular temporal variations in major element compositions. This stage eventually leads to a formation of a magma chamber, represented by an interval with increasing concentrations of incompatible elements with time. The eruption frequency within the cycle increases from the stage of a simple plumbing system to the sill and dyke complex stage and then drops again during magma chamber stage. In accordance with this model, Katla volcano is at present in the first interval (i.e. simple plumbing system) of the third cycle because the activity in historical time has been characterized by uniform magma composition and relatively low eruption frequency.     

Control strategies and experimental verifications of the electromagnetic mass damper system for structural vibration control

The electromagnetic mass damper （EMD） control system, as an innovative active control system to reduce structural vibration, offers many advantages over traditional active mass driver/damper （AMD） control systems. In this paper, studies of several EMD control strategies and bench-scale shaking table tests of a two-story model structure are described. First, two structural models corresponding to uncontrolled and Zeroed cases are developed, and parameters of these models are validated through sinusoidal sweep tests to provide a basis for establishing an accurate mathematical model for further studies. Then, a simplified control strategy for the EMD system based on the pole assignment control algorithm is proposed. Moreover, ideal pole locations are derived and validated through a series of shaking table tests. Finally, three benchmark earthquake ground motions and sinusoidal sweep waves are imposed onto the structure to investigate the effectiveness and feasibility of using this type of innovative active control system for structural vibration control. In addition, the robustness of the EMD system is examined. The test results show that the EMD system is an effective and robust system for the control of structural vibrations.     

卫星应用技术在地学研究中的发展现状

卫星应用技术与地学研究很早就存在密切的联系,从最初单一的遥感应用发展到包含遥感(RS)、地理信息技术(GIS)、全球定位系统(GPS)等多种技术在内的空间信息技术,卫星应用技术促进了地学理论研究和定性、定量的分析验证,加速了地球科学的发展.本文综述了近年来地学领域卫星应用技术的主要方向和现状.     

双塔连体高层混合结构抗震性能研究

外钢框架-混凝土核心筒结构体系被认为是适合我国国情的高层建筑结构体系之一,我国已有多个采用这种结构体系的单塔楼工程实例,但对双塔连体高层混合结构的研究较少。本文针对上海国际设计中心不等高双塔连体混合结构,进行了7度多遇地震、基本烈度、罕遇地震和8度罕遇地震阶段的模拟地震振动台试验研究,得到了结构的破坏模式,并对模型结构和原型结构的动力反应进行了详细的分析,最后提出了此类结构设计的一些建议。研究表明,高位连体的竖向地震反应比较明显,设计中应适当考虑动力放大效应;在各水准地震作用下结构整体变形均呈现弯曲型;主塔楼核心筒在中震下可以保证"不坏",但结构小震下的层间位移略超过规范限值。     

沈阳市供水系统抗震功能可靠性分析

城市供水管网的抗震研究能够服务于供水管网的规划、设计和改造。以沈阳市供水管网系统为背景,介绍了一类求解大型供水网络节点及系统功能可靠度的方法。对沈阳市主干供水网络进行了抗震功能可靠性分析。研究结果证明,建议方法是合理评价供水管网地震后工作性能的工具,可以为大型供水管网的抗震可靠度分析及抗震设计服务提供基础。     

龙滩水电工程数字遥测地震台网技术系统

介绍了龙滩水电站数字遥测地震台网工程技术方案及主要仪器设备选型,通过实际震例检验了台网的监测能力。台网的运行情况表明,台网技术系统先进,设备运行稳定可靠,对监测龙滩库区及附近地震发挥了重要作用。