The Most Geomagnetically Disturbed 24 Hours

Geomagnetically disturbed periods, characterized by the maximum average 24-hour global disturbances are considered. Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values is used to predict the occurrence of major magnetic storm periods. A geomagnetic storm similar to the one recorded on March 13 - 14, 1998, would be expected to occur within the next 13 solar cycles. The present analysis corroborates the substantial increase of the level of magnetic disturbances from solar cycle to solar cycle.     

初始场估计共轭同化方法的精确化

通过例子,说明对偏微分方程模型使用共轭同化方法时,同周期性条件的重要性,提出尽可能精确地使用共轭同化方法于偏微分方程模型的办法及对有些方程不含ｅ↓ｕ／ｅ↓项时,其相应差分方程模型精确共轭同化方法。     

地震人员伤亡的动态评估

引入了初始人员伤亡矩阵的概念,并借助于几个概念分布函数确定了砖砌体系结构的初始人员伤亡矩阵,建立了地震人员伤亡动态量化以在方法,并以唐山地震为例使用该方法进行再评估,得到了一些应用结果。     

斜坡稳定：方法论

据斜坡及滑这科领域国内外研究现状及工程实践,总结归纳了斜坡稳定研究了应遵循的若干原则,其中包括了工程地质建模,动态系统,稳定性评价的相对性和绝对性,以及模型的精确性与可行性等问题。     

A Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is pre-sented.In the model,the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables,and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshorestructural steel under constant amplitude loading.Furthermore,by using the Monte Carlo simulation tech-nique,the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted.The tests are conducted toverify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.     

Accelerated initial stiffness schemes for elastoplasticity

Iterative methods for the solution of non‐linear finite element equations are generally based on variants of the Newton–Raphson method. When they are stable, full Newton–Raphson schemes usually converge rapidly but may be expensive for some types of problems (for example, when the tangent stiffness matrix is unsymmetric). Initial stiffness schemes, on the other hand, are extremely robust but may require large numbers of iterations for cases where the plastic zone is extensive. In most geomechanics applications it is generally preferable to use a tangent stiffness scheme, but there are situations in which initial stiffness schemes are very useful. These situations include problems where a nonassociated flow rule is used or where the zone of plastic yielding is highly localized. This paper surveys the performance of several single‐parameter techniques for accelerating the convergence of the initial stiffness scheme. Some simple but effective modifications to these procedures are also proposed. In particular, a modified version of Thomas' acceleration scheme is developed which has a good rate of convergence. Previously published results on the performance of various acceleration algorithms for initial stiffness iteration are rare and have been restricted to relatively simple yield criteria and simple problems. In this study, detailed numerical results are presented for the expansion of a thick cylinder, the collapse of a rigid strip footing, and the failure of a vertical cut. These analyses use the Mohr–Coulomb and Tresca yield criteria which are popular in soil mechanics. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Feedback–feedforward control of offshore platforms under random waves

This study investigates the control of jacket‐type offshore platforms. The deck displacement of jacket‐type offshore platforms can be controlled using both passive and active control mechanisms. Among the passive control mechanisms, a tuned mass damper concept is studied in this paper. Active control mechanisms considered here include the active mass damper, the active tendon mechanism and the propeller thruster. An optimal frequency domain approach to active control of wave‐excited platforms is used in which the H₂ norm of the transfer function from the external disturbance to the regulated output is minimized. In this study, the hydrodynamic drag force is evaluated using the JONSWAP wave spectrum. Unlike conventional linearization approaches, the influence of non‐linearity in the drag force is retained in this scheme by expressing the non‐linear force components in terms of higher‐order convolutions of the water‐particle velocities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this scheme, the platform performance with and without control devices under different sea states is evaluated. It is demonstrated that the control devices are useful in reducing the displacement response of jacket‐type offshore platforms, especially when the wave forces are concentrated at frequencies close to the natural frequencies of the platform. This becomes especially significant in deep waters because the natural frequencies of jacket‐type platforms fall closer to the dominant wave frequencies in deep waters. Adding control devices to deep water platforms will ensure a reduction both in the global response of the platform and in localized effects, such as the fatigue of welded joints. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于新《电力设施抗震设计规范》的地震动随机模型参数研究

根据新《电力设施抗震设计规范》(GB50260-2013)对随机地震动功率谱参数的取值进行分析。介绍新《电力设施抗震设计规范》中设计反应谱,推导设计谱到功率谱的转换过程。选取常用的Clough-Penzien修正过滤白噪声模型作为拟合函数,通过功率谱参数拟合,得到不同场地类别、不同抗震设防烈度下的地震动模型参数。该研究成果可为电力工程抗震设计分析提供参考。     

Bivariate Gaussian mixture–based equivalent linearization method for stochastic seismic analysis of nonlinear structures

To address challenges in stochastic seismic analysis of nonlinear structures, this paper further develops a recently proposed Gaussian mixture–based equivalent linearization method (GM‐ELM). The GM‐ELM uses a Gaussian mixture distribution model to approximate the probabilistic distribution of a nonlinear system response. Using properties of the Gaussian mixture model, GM‐ELM can decompose the non‐Gaussian response of a nonlinear system into multiple Gaussian responses of linear single–degree of freedom oscillators. With the set of the equivalent linear systems identified by GM‐ELM, response statistics as crossing rate and first‐passage probability can be computed conveniently using theories of linear random vibration analysis. However, the original version of GM‐ELM may lead to an inaccurate estimate because of the heuristic parameters of the linear system introduced to supplement insufficient information. To overcome this limitation and define unique equivalent linear systems, this paper proposes a further developed version of GM‐ELM, which uses a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities instead of univariate models. Moreover, to facilitate the use of elastic response spectra for estimating the mean peak responses of a nonlinear structure, a new response spectrum combination rule is proposed for GM‐ELM. Two numerical examples of hysteretic structural systems are presented in this paper to illustrate the application of the bivariate GM‐ELM to nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis. The analysis results obtained by the bivariate GM‐ELM are compared with those obtained by the univariate GM‐ELM, the conventional equivalent linearization method, the tail equivalent linearization method, and Monte Carlo simulation. The supporting source code and data are available for download at https://github.com/yisangri/GitHub‐bGM‐ELM‐code.git     

基于金矿规格单元数据的机器学习方法在成矿建模分析中的应用

现代金矿勘察主要是通过综合地球化学和地质测量等数字化方法对深部矿床进行研究,所需要的人力物力成本较高。而通过分析积累的金矿规格单元数据,可以建立金矿成矿情况与相关成矿元素含量之间的非线性关系,从已有的勘查数据中寻找金矿成矿的一般规律。本文基于与金矿相关的成矿元素含量数据,分别采用逻辑斯蒂回归、随机森林和决策树方法对原始数据和重采样数据进行训练,综合运用召回率、精确率和准确率对模型进行评价。通过对比发现,在训练和测试原始数据过程中,由于每组之间数据量的巨大差距,导致成矿数据被淹没;而在训练重采样数据过程中,随机森林在召回率和准确率方面均有较好的表现,分别达到了90.63%和70.78%;并最终分析了随机森林模型中不同分类边界对于金矿成矿情况预测结果的影响。利用不同的测量指标对模型进行评价分析,使模型更适用于金矿成矿预测,可有效地提高金矿勘察的效率。