相对点位中误差及其在工程测量中的作用

阐述相对点位中误差的概念及其在工程测量中的作用,介绍相对点位中误差及相对误差椭园计算方法,以示例说明点位中误差和相对点位中误差的意义和作用。     

夏季青藏高原地区降水和低涡的数值预报试验

本文首先分析了１９７９年６—７月的ＦＧＧＥIIIｂ级资料风场和相对湿度场在青藏高原地区的偏差，指出在高原西部应予以订正。然后利用一有限区域模式，通过综合订正初始风场和相对湿度场，改进模式部分物理过程，并提高其水平分辨率，共设计了６组预报试验，对该年的两例高原低涡切变线降水过程进行了２４小时预报。结果表明，利用改进了的初始场和部分物理过程，可明显改善高原地区的降水预报，并在一定程度上改善了流场的预报，即上述改进方案是可行的；但在高原地区嵌套预报方案尚待修改，还应继续努力提高模式对高原低涡流场的预报能力。     

围岩参数Monte－Carlo有限元反分析

提出了应用隧道施工监测的随机值，采用蒙特一卡罗（Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ）有限元随机反分析以反推地层参数和初始地应力分布的方法。反推参数不仅给出其均值，还给出参数的方差及分布类型，为地下结构稳定性和可靠性分析提供必要数据。为检验所提的反分析方法对工程的实用性，文中给出了一个实例。     

Stochastic perturbation analysis of groundwater flow. Spatially variable soils,semi-infinite domains and large fluctuations

As is well known, a complete stochastic solution of the stochastic differential equation governing saturated groundwater flow leads to an infinite hierarchy of equations in terms of higher-order moments. Perturbation techniques are commonly used to close this hierarchy, using power-series expansions. These methods are applied by truncating the series after a finite number of terms, and products of random gradients of conductivity and head potential are neglected. Uncertainty regarding the number or terms required to yield a sufficiently accurate result is a significant drawback with the application of power series-based perturbation methods for such problems. Low-order series truncation may be incapable of representing fundamental characteristics of flow and can lead to physically unreasonable and inaccurate solutions of the stochastic flow equation. To support this argument, one-dimensional, steady-state, saturated groundwater flow is examined, for the case of a spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity field. An ordinary power-series perturbation method is used to approximate the mean head, using second-order statistics to characterize the conductivity field. Then an interactive perturbation approach is introduced, which yields improved results compared to low-order, power-series perturbation methods for situations where strong interactions exist between terms in such approximations. The interactive perturbation concept is further developed using Feynman-type diagrams and graph theory, which reduce the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance functions. Both theoretical and practical advantages of diagrammatic solutions are discussed; these include the study of bounded domains and large fluctuations.     

Reflection and transmission ofSH waves in an initially stressed medium consisting of a sandy layer lying over a fluid-saturated porous solid

Biot's theory is employed to study the reflection and transmission ofSH waves in a sandy layer lying over a fluid-saturated porous solid half-space. The entire medium is considered under constant initial stress. Effects of sandiness, initial stress, anelasticity and viscosity of the interstitial fluid on the partitioning of energy are studied. In the presence of initial stress the incident wave starts attenuating when incider beyond a certain angle (depending upon the amount of initial stress), even if the medium is perfectly clastic. Anelasticity of the solid layer results in the dissipation of energy during transmission. The direction of attenuation vector of incident wave affects the dissipation energy to a large extent. Effect on partitioning of energy reverse at incidence after the critical angle. A complete account of energy returmed back to the underlying half-space and that which is dissipated in the overlying layer has been discussed analytically as well as numerically.     

震级特征图特点与a,b值关系

本文主要研究了a、b值的变化对震级特征图的影响。当a、b值的变化幅度不太大时,仍然可从震级特征图上识别出最小均匀震级等震级阈值;当a、b值的变化达到相当的幅度后,震级阈值点变模糊了。     

TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN RELATION WITH EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS

Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoon activities in relation with the EI Niño and La Niña events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the EI Niño years and active in the La Niña years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time and intensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Niño and La Niña years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature(SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singular values disassemble(SVD)method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST field. The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Niño years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. Which take place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Niña years.     

工程结构抗震设防标准的决策分析

提出了工程结构抗震设防标准的决策方法,该决策方法以结构初始造价分析和地震损失分析为基础。建立了结构初始造价与设计烈度的关系,并提出了地震损失的估计方法。使用该决策方法导出了最佳设计烈度和重现周期的解析表达式,从而得出了对抗震设计具有重要意义的结论。     

湘西南石英脉型金矿矿物流体包裹体pH值和Eh值的估算

以湘西南石英脉型金矿床为例,研究ｐ Ｈ、Ｅｈ 估算值的结果表明利用围岩蚀变反应方程以及采用碱金属离子、卤素元素离子估算ｐＨ 值是不完善的。本文根据热力学原则（ 相平衡、电价中和） 提出了矿物流体包裹体成分体系计算ｐＨ 估算值的方法,并且讨论了测试包裹体时气体成分外逸是影响ｐＨ 和Ｅｈ 估算值的主要因素之一。     

Monthly suspended sediment load prediction using artificial intelligence: testing of a new random subspace method

ABSTRACT

The predictive capability of a new artificial intelligence method, random subspace (RS), for the prediction of suspended sediment load in rivers was compared with commonly used methods: random forest (RF) and two support vector machine (SVM) models using a radial basis function kernel (SVM-RBF) and a normalized polynomial kernel (SVM-NPK). Using river discharge, rainfall and river stage data from the Haraz River, Iran, the results revealed: (a) the RS model provided a superior predictive accuracy (NSE = 0.83) to SVM-RBF (NSE = 0.80), SVM-NPK (NSE = 0.78) and RF (NSE = 0.68), corresponding to very good, good, satisfactory and unsatisfactory accuracies in load prediction; (b) the RBF kernel outperformed the NPK kernel; (c) the predictive capability was most sensitive to gamma and epsilon in SVM models, maximum depth of a tree and the number of features in RF models, classifier type, number of trees and subspace size in RS models; and (d) suspended sediment loads were most closely correlated with river discharge (PCC = 0.76). Overall, the results show that RS models have great potential in data poor watersheds, such as that studied here, to produce strong predictions of suspended load based on monthly records of river discharge, rainfall depth and river stage alone.