The Reliability of Using the Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure*

This paper demonstrates the utility of the iterative proportional fitting procedure (IPF) in generating disaggregated spatial data from aggregated data and evaluates the performance of the procedure. Estimates of individual level data created by IPF using data of equal-interval categories are reliable, but the performance of the estimation can be improved by increasing sample size. The improvement usually is enough to offset the increase in error created by other factors. If the two variables defining the cross-classification have a significant interaction effect and the number of categories in each variable is larger than two, then IPF is preferred over an independent model.     

From A to B,randomly: a point-to-point random trajectory generator for animal movement

For applications in animal movement, we propose a random trajectory generator (RTG) algorithm that combines the concepts of random walks, space-time prisms, and the Brownian bridge movement model and is capable of efficiently generating random trajectories between a given origin and a destination point, with the least directional bias possible. Since we provide both a planar and a spherical version of the algorithm, it is suitable for simulating trajectories ranging from the local scale up to the (inter-)continental scale, as exemplified by the movement of migrating birds. The algorithm accounts for physical limitations, including maximum speed and maximum movement time, and provides the user with either single or multiple trajectories as a result. Single trajectories generated by the RTG algorithm can be used as a null model to test hypotheses about movement stimuli, while the multiple trajectories can be used to create a probability density surface akin to Brownian bridges.     

随机激励下非线性海洋结构物响应分析方法研究进展

对在随机载荷作用下非线性海洋结构物的运动响应分析的各种方法进行了综述,对有些方法的基本原理做了阐述,并指出一些最新的研究进展和今后进一步研究的方向。     

一种准确通用的台风路径预报模式

应用天气学理论,对台风云图的晴空区轴线制约台风移动的规律进行物理解释。根据台风云团与晴空区之间存在的干、湿梯度力和推动台风前进的惯性力的互相关系,建立台风移向预报方程和轨迹预报方程,分析论证了台风移向变化的物理过程,把影响台风移动的复杂因子转化为单一的预报因子。     

Parametric vibration of submerged floating tunnel tether under random excitation

For the study of the parametric vibration response of submerged floating tunnel tether under random excitation,a nonlinear random parametric vibration equation of coupled tether and tube of submerged floating tunnel is set up.Subsequently,vibration response of tether in the tether-tube system is analyzed by Monte Carlo method.It may be concluded that when the tube is subjected to zero-mean Gaussian white noise random excitation,the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether reach the peak if the circular frequency of tube doubles that of tether;the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether increase as the random excitation root mean square increases;owing to the damping force of water,the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether decrease rapidly compared with tether in air;increasing the damping of the tether or tube reduces the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether;the large-amplitude vibration of tether may be avoided by locating dampers on the tether or tube.     

Stokes波的谱特性分析

应用理论推导及数值计算方法，对Stokes随机波的谱特性进行了分析。首先将波面方程，海水质点水平速度用一阶波面分量的非线性组合表示，应用平稳随机高阶短的降阶计算法则，得到了波面方程及海水质点水平速度与一阶波面分量的自相关函数之间的关系，从而确定了Stokes随机波浪的波浪谱密度及海水质点水平速度和加速度谱密度，进而求得有关波浪要素的均方根值。文章还应有数值计算方法，分析了波浪基本参数对均方根值的影响。     

Treatment of Hydrodynamic Loading for Random Sea State

- In order to employ cost effective frequency domain analysis for off-shore structures treatment of hydrodynamic loading is essential. Drag and inertia dominated, resonating and antiresonating cases under random sea states are analyzed to highlight the implications and relative merits of four salient linearization techniques.     

基于随机事件集的风暴潮重现期计算的合理性研究

为了研究随机事件集实际应用于计算南通如东岸段风暴增水的合理性问题,基于ADCIRC模型模拟影响南通如东岸段基于随机事件集的风暴增水,然后利用P-Ⅲ型曲线对年增水极值进行拟合,得到各典型重现期下的增水值,并与由28年历史资料拟合得到的各重现期下增水值进行对比。结果表明,在历史资料长度所及的28年以及以下重现期,基于随机事件集模拟得到的重现期增水值与基于历史实测资料的比较符合,说明随机事件集的结果在低重现期情况下结果良好。对于高重现期增水值,基于随机事件集的拟合结果显著大于基于历史资料的拟合结果。由于历史资料时间太短,不足以发生非常极端的风暴潮事件,故对高重现期的拟合结果难以保证可信度,所以不能排除随机事件集拟合结果的合理性。随机事件集在南通如东岸段对低重现期增水估计准确,同时也能较充分地估计高重现期增水,在目前缺乏百年千年时间尺度的实测资料的情况下,不失为一种良好的风暴增水重现期计算工具。在全球变暖情况下,超强台风出现几率大大增加,典型重现期增水值也会相应提高,为了预防风暴灾害的侵袭,需要加深加固海堤、江堤等海岸工程。     

Nonlinear random wave-induced drag force on a vegetation field

This paper provides a practical method by which the drag force on a vegetation field beneath nonlinear random waves can be estimated. This is achieved by using a simple drag formula together with an empirical drag coefficient given by Mendez et al. (Mendez, F.J., Losada, I.J., Losada, M.A., 1999. Hydrodynamics induced by wind waves in a vegetation field. J. Geophys. Res. 104 (C8), 18383–18396). Effects of nonlinear waves are included by using Stokes second order wave theory where the basic harmonic motion is assumed to be a stationary Gaussian narrow–band random process. An example of calculation is also presented.