北半球环流季节演变机制

提出了北半球大气环流季节变化的一种反馈机制：外界（太阳、海洋、陆地等）的热力强迫加热大气,形成波状低云;而波状低云又使高中纬大气冷却,进而影响高纬冷气团冬夏变化。根据波状低云影响高纬冷气团变化这一负反馈过程,对1958－1993年进行夏季旱涝预报试验,结果每年中国东部的主雨带基本可正确预测出来。     

利用ERBE资料分析中国地区云辐射强迫的时空变化

利用１９８５￣１９８８年４年的ＥＲＢＥ资料,分析和揭示了我国大陆地区云辐射强迫变化的一些基本事实。结果发现：云强迫存在很大的区域差异和较强的季节变化,其中川黔地区是全国最大的云强迫负值区,其次是长江中下游地区和华北地区青藏高原为正、负值的过渡区,高原北侧的西北干旱区冬季为较弱的云强迫正值区。此外,云强迫还具有一定的年际变化。     

水汽场初值调整及其对华南降水预报贡献的研究

该文利用GMS多通道气象卫星资料推导得到的降水资料估算出的加热率, 作为非绝热的非线性正规模初始化过程中的非绝热强迫项, 进行风压场的初值调整, 再采用一个与模式中的对流参数化方案相反的逆运算方案, 进行水汽场的初值调整.以保证初始时刻按模式的物理参数化方案计算得到的加热率与由卫星推导的加热率一致. 这一方法在非绝热的非线性正规模初值化的框架中, 使初始时刻的水汽场得到调整.既实现了传统的初始化目标, 又提高了模式对降水的短时预报效果.对华南的两个个例的试验结果表明该文的方法是有效的.     

Sensitivity study of the seasonal mean circulation in the northern South China Sea

A study of the circulation in the northern South China Sea （SCS） is carried out with the aid of a three-dimensional, high-resolution regional ocean model. One control and two sensitivity experiments are performed to qualitatively investigate the effects of surface wind forcing, Kuroshio intrusion, and bottom topographic influence on the circulation in the northern SCS. The model results show that a branch of the Kuroshio in the upper layer can intrude into the SCS and have direct influence on the circulation over the continental shelf break in the northern SCS. There are strong southward pressure gradients along a zonal belt largely seaward of the continental slope. The pressure gradients are opposite in the southern and northern parts of the Luzon Strait, indicating inflow and outflow through the strait, respectively. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the Kuroshio intrusion is responsible for generating the imposed pressure head along the shelf break and has no obvious seasonal variations. The lateral forcing through the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Strait can induce the southwestward slope current and the northeastward SCS Warm Current in the northern SCS. Without the lateral forcing, there is the continental slope. The wind forcing mainly causes the The wind-induced water pile-up results in the southward no high-pressure-gradient zonal belt seaward of seasonal variation of the circulation in the SCS. high pressure gradient along the northwestern boundary of the basin. Without the blocking of the plateau around Dongsha Islands, the intruded Kuroshio tends to extend northwest and the SCS branch of the Kuroshio becomes wider and stronger. The analyses presented here are qualitative in nature but should lead to a better understanding of the oceanic responses in the northern SCS to these external influence factors.     

Near Wall Flow over Urban-like Roughness

In this study, comprehensive measurements over a number of urban-type surfaces with the same area density of 25% have been performed in a wind tunnel. The experiments were conducted at a free stream velocity of 10 m s^-1 and the main instrumentation was 120 ° x-wire anemometry, but measurement accuracy was checked using laser Doppler anemometry.The results haveconfirmed the strong three-dimensionalityof the turbulent flow inthe roughness sublayer and the depths of the inertial sublayer (log-law region) and roughness sublayer for each surface have been determined. Spatial averaging has been used to remove the variability of the flow in the roughness sublayer due to individual obstacles and it is shown that the spatially averaged mean velocity in the inertial sublayer and roughness sublayer can,together, be described by a single log-law with a mean zero-plane displacement and roughness length for the surface, provided that the proper surface stress is known. The spatially averaged shear stresses in the inertial sublayer and roughness sublayer are compared with the surface stress deduced from form drag measurements on the roughness elements themselves.The dispersive stress arising from the spatial inhomogeneity in the mean flow profiles was deduced from the data and is shown to be negligible compared with the usual Reynolds stresses in the roughness sublayer. Comparisons have been made between a homogeneous (regular element array) surface and one consisting of random height elements of the same total volume. Although the upper limits of the inertial sublayer for both surfaces were almost identical at equivalent fetch, the roughness sublayer was much thicker for the random surface than for the uniform surface, the friction velocity and the roughness length were significantly larger and the `roughness efficiency' was greater. It is argued that the inertial sublayer may not exist at all in some of the more extreme rough urban areas. These results will provide fundamental information for modelling urban air quality and forecasting urban wind climates.     

夏季青藏高原低涡的切向流场及波动特征分析

从大气动力学原理出发,将高原低涡视为受热源强迫的边界层内涡旋,建立了柱坐标下满足梯度风平衡的低涡控制方程组,分析高原低涡切向流场的基本特征.在此基础上,通过求解线性化涡旋模式,得出高原低涡中各类波动的频散关系及其特征,同时定性讨论了热力作用对混合波动的影响以及混合波动与高原低涡流场特征的联系.使用中尺度数值模式WRF分...     

基于数值预报和随机森林算法的强对流天气分类预报技术

随机森林算法是当前得到较为广泛应用的机器学习方法之一,有着很高的预测精度,训练结果稳定,泛化能力强,解决多分类问题有明显优势。本文将随机森林算法应用于强对流的潜势预测和分类,分短时强降水、雷暴大风、冰雹和无强对流四种类别,基于2005—2016年NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料计算的对流指数和物理量,开展强对流天气的分类训练、0～12 h预报和检验,经2015—2016年独立测试样本检验表明,针对强对流发生站点的点对点检验,整体误判率为21. 9%,85次强对流过程基本无漏报,模型尤其适用于较大范围强对流天气。随机森林算法筛选的因子物理意义较为明确,和主观预报经验基本相符,模型准确率高,可用于日常业务。     

Water Vapor and Cloud Radiative Forcings over the Pacific Ocean Simulated by the LASG/IAP AGCM: Sensitivity to Convection Schemes

Characteristics of the total clear-sky greenhouse effect (GA) and cloud radiative forcings (CRFs), along with the radiative-related water vapor and cloud properties simulated by the Spectral Atmospheric Model developed by LASGIAP (SAMIL) are evaluated. Impacts of the convection scheme on the simulation of CRFs are discussed by using two AMIP (Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project) type simulations employing different convection schemes: the new Zhang-McFarlane (NZH) and Tiedtke (TDK) convection schemes. It shows that both the climatological GA and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, both in terms of spatial pattern and magnitude. The impact of the convection scheme on GA is not significant. The climatological longwave CRF (LWCRF) and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, but with a prominently weaker magnitude. The simulation of the climatology (response) of LWCRF in the NZH (TDK) run is slightly more realistic than in the TDK (NZH) simulation, indicating significant impacts of the convection scheme. The shortwave CRF (SWCRF) shows large biases in both spatial pattern and magnitude, and the results from the TDK run are better than those from the NZH run. A spuriously excessive negative climatological SWCRF over the southeastern Pacific and an insufficient response of SWCRF to El Nio warming over the tropical Pacific are seen in the NZH run. These two biases are alleviated in the TDK run, since it produces vigorous convection, which is related to the low threshold for convection to take place. Also, impacts of the convection scheme on the cloud profile are discussed.     

Cloud Variations under Subtropical High Conditions

The cloud variations under subtropical high(STH) conditions during summers over a ten-year period are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.The results reveal that clouds mainly experience an isolated evolution in the STHs,which is designated in this study by the 1540 gpm geopotential lines at 850 hPa.In the STH domain throughout the Northern Hemisphere,the average amount of total clouds exceeds 30%.Low clouds dominate in the STH domain,contributing over 60%of total cloud amount within the Pacific subtropical high and over 40%within the Atlantic subtropical high.The prevalence of low clouds in above regions is determined by the circulation pattern around 150°-180°E and 850 hPa,which suppresses both the upward development of the cloud tops and the water vapor divergences near the surface.Furthermore,clouds present great geographical incoherence within the STH domain.In the eastern STHs,the amount of middle and low clouds increases to peak in the early morning and decreases to a trough in the afternoon,while the amount of high clouds remains stable throughout the day.Conversely,in the western STHs,the diurnal amplitude of low and middle clouds is less than three,while high clouds dramatically reach the maximum in the afternoon and drop to the minimum in the evening.Among the nine cloud categories,stratocumulus clouds with greater optical thickness account for the most under STH conditions,no matter their occurrence or amount,causing more shortwave cloud radiative forcing to cool the local atmosphere and surface as a consequence.