波流共存场中多向随机波浪传播变形数学模型

基于波作用量守恒方程建立了波流共存场中多向随机波浪传播变形数学模型,模型中考虑了波浪绕射的影响和水流引起的波浪弥散多普勒效应,应用包含水流和地形影响的激破波模式计算波浪破碎的能量耗散,采用一阶上迎风有限差分格式离散控制方程。分别计算了有无近岸流情况下单向和多向随机波浪的波高分布,考虑水流影响的数值计算结果与物理模型实验数据吻合良好,比较分析表明,所建立的数学模型能够复演由于离岸流引起的波高增大,可用于波流共存场多向随机波浪传播变形的模拟和预报。     

利用DInSAR和GPS综合方法估计地表3维形变速率

在分析基于贝叶斯统计和马尔科夫随机场理论的解析优化法的基础上,提出以GPS提供的高精度的水平形变速率作为约束,利用直接分解法,将DInSAR的斜距向形变速率分解成垂直形变速率。试验结果表明,直接分解法有效地综合了GPS的高水平精度与DInSAR的高垂直精度优点,且计算简单,克服了解析优化法可能出现的数值不稳定问题。     

Reflection of waves from the boundary of a random elastic semi-infinite medium

In this paper the smooth perturbation technique is employed to investigate the problem of reflection of waves incident on the plane boundary of a semi-infinite elastic medium with randomly varying inhomogeneities. Amplitude ratios have been obtained for various types of incident and reflected waves. It has been shown that an incidentSH orSV type of wave gives rise to reflectedSH, P andSV waves, the main components beingSH andP, SV in the respective cases. The reflected amplitudes have been calculated depending upon the randomness of the medium to the square of the small quantity , where measures the deviation of the medium from homogeneity. An incidentP-type wave produces mainly aP component and also a weakSH component to the order of ². The reflected amplitudes obtainable for elastic media are also altered by terms of the same order. The direction of the reflected wave is influenced by randomness in some cases.     

Efficient generation of conditional simulations by chebyshev matrix polynomial approximations to the symmetric square root of the covariance matrix

Consider the problem of generating a realization y₁ of a Gaussian random field on a dense grid of points ₁ conditioned on field observations y₂ collected on a sparse grid of points ₂. An approach to this is to generate first an unconditional realization y over the grid =_{1 2}, and then to produce y₁ by conditioning y on the data y₂. As standard methods for generating y, such as the turning bands, spectral or Cholesky approaches can have various limitations, it has been proposed by M. W. Davis to generate realizations from a matrix polynomial approximations to the square root of the covariance matrix. In this paper we describe how to generate a direct approximation to the conditional realization y₁, on ₁ using a variant of Davis' approach based on approximation by Chebyshev polynomials. The resulting algorithm is simple to implement, numerically stable, and bounds on the approximation error are readily available. Furthermore we show that the conditional realization y₁ can be generated directly with a lower order polynomial than the unconditional realization y, and that further reductions can be achieved by exploiting a nugget effect if one is present. A pseudocode version of the algorithm is provided that can be implemented using the fast Fourier transform if the field is stationary and the grid ₁ is rectangular. Finally, numerical illustrations are given of the algorithm's performance in generating various 2-D realizations of conditional processes on large sampling grids.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

Late Holocene linkages between decade–century scale climate variability and productivity at Lake Tanganyika, Africa

Microlaminated sediment cores from the Kalya slope region of Lake Tanganyika provide a near-annually resolved paleoclimate record between ∼∼2,840 and 1,420 cal. yr B.P. demonstrating strong linkages between climate variability and lacustrine productivity. Laminae couplets comprise dark, terrigenous-dominated half couplets, interpreted as low density underflows deposited from riverine sources during the rainy season, alternating with light, planktonic diatomaceous ooze, with little terrigenous component, interpreted as windy/dry season deposits. Laminated portions of the studied cores consist of conspicuous dark and light colored bundles of laminae couplets. Light and dark bundles alternate at decadal time scales. Within dark bundles, both light and dark half couplets are significantly thinner than within light bundles, implying slower sediment accumulation rates during both seasons over those intervals.Time series analyses of laminae thickness patterns demonstrate significant periodicities at interannual–centennial time scales. Longer time scale periodicities (multidecadal to centennial scale) of light and dark half couplet thicknesses are coherent and in some cases are similar to solar cycle periods on these time scales. Although laminae thickness cycles do not strongly covary with the actual Δ¹⁴C record for this same time period, two large Δ¹⁴C anomalies are associated with substantial decreases in both light and dark laminae thickness. In contrast to the multidecadal– centennial time scale, significant annual to decadal periodicities, which are broadly consistent with ENSO/PDO forcing and their impact on East African climate, are not coherent between light and dark half couplets. The coherency of light–dark couplets at decadal–centennial time scales, but not at shorter time scales, is consistent with a model of a long-term relationship between precipitation (recorded in wet season dark laminae thickness) and productivity (light laminae thickness), which is not manifest at shorter time scales. We hypothesize that this coupling results from long-term recharging of internal nutrient loading during wet periods (higher erosion of soil P) and reduced loading during drought intervals. The relationship is not expressed on short time scales during which the dominant control on productivity is wind-driven, dry season upwelling, which is uncorrelated with wet-season precipitation. Our record greatly extends the temporal record of this quasi-periodic behavior throughout the late Holocene and provides the first evidence linking decade- to century-scale episodes of enhanced productivity to enhanced precipitation levels and nutrient recharge in a productive tropical lake.     

非地转强迫对Fitow(0114)暴雨的影响

利用非静力中尺度模式MM5对 0 114号台风Fitow从 2 0 0 1年 8月 31日 0 0时～ 9月 2日 0 0时 (UTC ,下同 )的降水过程进行了模拟研究。结果表明 ,MM5对Fitow登陆过程中暴雨落区和强度的模拟与实况比较一致。模拟结果较好地再现了暴雨的中尺度特征。正是维持少动的台风倒槽和嵌入其中的中小尺度系统相互作用造成了暴雨的发生、发展 ,而高、低空中尺度散度场的配置对暴雨有很好的指示意义。在华南台风暴雨区无论是高层还是低层 ,都存在很强的非地转作用 ,非地转涡度项对散度倾向项是重要的强迫因素 ;但非地转作用的实现与中高纬度地区有本质的区别 ,在低层非地转作用是由于强的位势场气旋涡度 (- 2  <0 )与弱的流场气旋涡度 (fζ >0 )不平衡产生的 ;而高层非地转作用是由于强的位势场反气旋涡度 (- 2  >0 )与弱的流场反气旋涡度 (fζ <0 )不平衡产生的。非地转作用是暴雨中尺度系统上升运动发展的触发机制。从动力学角度解释了用非地转 Q矢量散度场来判断暴雨落区要比用准地转 Q矢量散度场好的原因。     

相对湿度对气溶胶辐射特性和辐射强迫的影响

采用已有的气溶胶折射指数等资料 ,计算了在不同的相对湿度条件下硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射特性。结合两种不同化学输送模式 (CTM )的模拟结果及LASGGOALS/AGCM模式 ,模拟估算了考虑相对湿度影响后全球硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫。结果表明 :(1)随着相对湿度的增加 ,硫酸盐气溶胶的质量消光效率因子在短波波段有所减小 ,单次散射反照率仅在长波波段有所增加 ,不对称因子在整个波段均有所增加 ;(2 )用两个CTM资料模拟辐射强迫的结果相差较大 ,其全球平均辐射强迫分别为 - 0 .2 6 8和 - 0 .816W/m2 ;(3)在考虑相对湿度的影响后 ,硫酸盐气溶胶辐射强迫的分布类型与相应干粒子的强迫分布类型基本相同 ,但全球平均的强迫值减少了 6 %左右。     

Probabilistic analysis of peak response of MDOF systems with uncertain PSD function

The use of uniform hazard spectra which have the same probability of exceedance at different frequencies has been proposed for the future version of the National Building Code of Canada. Commonly used combination rules to estimate the peak responses of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems are the square root of sum of squares rule and the complete quadratic combination rule. However, the probability that the peak response of a MDOF system exceeds the one estimated by using these rules with the peak modal responses from the uniform hazard spectra cannot be inferred directly. The assessment of the probability of exceedance of the peak response of MDOF systems is presented by considering that the uncertainty in seismic excitation due to all potential earthquakes can be lumped in the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration with uncertain model parameters. This probability is evaluated based on the random vibration of linear systems and the first‐order reliability method. It is found that the under‐ or over‐estimations are less than about 5 or 10% if the modal contributions are not within 10–90% of, or not within 20–80% of, the absolute sum of the effective modal peak responses, respectively. Otherwise, severe under‐ or over‐estimation could result. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.