四川盆地及东部山区暖季降水的日变化特征

利用国家气象信息中心1998—2018年分辨率为0.1°×0.1°的降水融合资料和ERA5小时再分析数据,分析了四川盆地及东部山区6—9月降水的日变化特征及成因。研究表明,四川盆地(简称盆地)降水量和频次有相似的日变化特征,盆地降水主要集中在夜间至清晨,降水高值区东传到达盆地东部山区后,降水量和频次都减少,东部山区没有明显的降水东传特征。夜间至清晨,盆地东南山地背风坡形成了较强的下沉气流,促进盆地低层形成质量堆积,同时盆地气旋性涡旋、水汽输入和大气层结不稳定的增强,造成盆地降水增强。盆地东南地区水汽通量方向自东南转为偏南以及盆地低层水汽辐合区向东扩展为盆地降水高值区向东传播提供水汽条件。盆地东部山区降水量峰值时间呈早晨和午后的双峰型分布,与地形触发局地性降水有关。受大气层结稳定性、山地气旋环流和山地—平原螺线管环流日变化的影响,盆地东部山区降水频次峰值时间呈午后的单峰型分布。     

延安丘陵区黄土雨滴溅蚀过程模拟

为揭示延安丘陵区黄土雨滴溅蚀特征及其演变过程,选取晚更新世原状黄土为研究对象,利用自制的雨径、雨强可控的单雨滴模拟试验装置,对边坡浅表层采集的原状黄土进行雨滴击溅侵蚀试验,研究降雨强度和降雨历时对原状黄土侵蚀特征的影响规律。结果表明: ①雨滴连续击打作用下,原状黄土表面逐渐形成一近似圆形的溅蚀坑,溅蚀坑由浅变深、由小变大,侵蚀深度随降雨历时的发展过程可描述为快速增长阶段(0~10 min)、缓慢增长阶段(10~40 min)和稳定发展阶段(40~60 min)。②侵蚀深度、侵蚀破坏直径及侵蚀扩散直径随降雨历时发展过程符合幂函数型增长,0~10 min为侵蚀变形主要增长阶段,降雨强度越大,土壤侵蚀作用越显著,0~10 min阶段的侵蚀深度占总侵蚀深度比例可达81%以上; 降雨历时约10 min后,溅蚀面上横向侵蚀范围基本趋于稳定状态,侵蚀深度、侵蚀破坏直径及侵蚀扩散直径均随降雨强度呈正相关,且侵蚀扩散直径D约为侵蚀破坏直径D0的2.71~3.55倍。③强降雨是诱发黄土边坡发生侵蚀灾害和水土流失的重要影响因素,建议采用坡面植绿、加筋和防排水等防护措施,增强坡面抗侵蚀能力,降低黄土边坡浅层水蚀灾害发生。研究成果可为黄土地区降雨侵蚀灾害防治提供参考。     

影响登陆台风降水量的主要因素分析

利用常规观测和自动站加密资料、卫星云图、雷达及NCEP再分析资料,诊断分析1521号台风“杜鹃”登陆福建减弱过程中造成宁波异常强降水原因,结果表明：本次宁波强降雨是由“杜鹃”减弱后的外围云系在加强西进的副高边缘通过对流发展引发的,伴有强雷电,具有低质心降水特点;中低层大范围、长时间持续的水汽能量输送给本次强降水提供了必要的水汽条件,水汽通量散度出现负值、极小值、变大与强降水的开始、增幅、结束有提前12 h的预示期;能量场的梯度大小和位置对台风暴雨的预报有较好的指示作用,强降水发生在能量场梯度大值区出现12 h之后;本次大暴雨过程发生在对流不稳定条件下,并伴有和暖湿气流相联系的湿位涡水平分量的发展,触发了垂直涡度的增长;中尺度辐合线的位置和强度对未来1 h降水预报有非常好的指示作用。

     

Spatial patterns of suspended sediment yields in a humid tropical watershed in Costa Rica

An Erratum has been published for this article in Hydrological Processes 16(5) 2002, 1130–1131. Humid tropical regions are often characterized by extreme variability of fluvial processes. The Rio Terraba drains the largest river basin, covering 4767 km², in Costa Rica. Mean annual rainfall is 3139±419_sd mm and mean annual discharge is 2168±492_sd mm (1971–88). Loss of forest cover, high rainfall erosivity and geomorphologic instability all have led to considerable degradation of soil and water resources at local to basin scales. Parametric and non‐parametric statistical methods were used to estimate sediment yields. In the Terraba basin, sediment yields per unit area increase from the headwaters to the basin mouth, and the trend is generally robust towards choice of methods (parametric and LOESS) used. This is in contrast to a general view that deposition typically exceeds sediment delivery with increase in basin size. The specific sediment yield increases from 112±11·4_sd t km^?2 year^?1 (at 317·9 km² on a major headwater tributary) to 404±141·7_sd t km^?2 year^?1 (at 4766·7 km²) at the basin mouth (1971–92). The analyses of relationships between sediment yields and basin parameters for the Terraba sub‐basins and for a total of 29 basins all over Costa Rica indicate a strong land use effect related to intensive agriculture besides hydro‐climatology. The best explanation for the observed pattern in the Terraba basin is a combined spatial pattern of land use and rainfall erosivity. These were integrated in a soil erosion index that is related to the observed patterns of sediment yield. Estimated sediment delivery ratios increase with basin area. Intensive agriculture in lower‐lying alluvial fans exposed to highly erosive rainfall contributes a large part of the sediment load. The higher elevation regions, although steep in slope, largely remain under forest, pasture, or tree‐crops. High rainfall erosivity (>7400 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1 year ^?1) is associated with land uses that provide inadequate soil protection. It is also associated with steep, unstable slopes near the basin mouth. Improvements in land use and soil management in the lower‐lying regions exposed to highly erosive rainfall are recommended, and are especially important to basins in which sediment delivery ratio increases downstream with increasing basin area. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meixner functions for derivation of the unit hydrograph

The Meixner functions are utilized to relate the effective rainfall, the direct runoff and the unit hydrograph through linkage equations. The linkage equations are then employed to derive the unit hydrograph for given rainfall-runoff data on a small agricultural watershed. These functions are tested with regard to their ability to reproduce and predict the direct runoff hydrograph. The Meixner functions are found to be an effective analytical tool for hydrograph synthesis. Further, they compare well with the least squares and linear programming methods of the unit hydrograph derivation.     

7月份降雨分布型的预报方法

综述了我国７月份雨型的划分方法，各种雨型的多雨特点及环流特征，总结了各类雨型的预报判据，着眼于赤道东太平洋海温（ＳＳＴ），冬季（１－３月）５００ｈＰａ环流，春季（３－５月）西太平洋副热带高压，夏季（６－８月）赤道平流层纬向风准两年振荡（ＱＢＯ）等方面，分析了与７月雨型的关联。该方法对业务预报有很好的指导意义。     

CWRF模式在中国夏季极端降水模拟的误差订正

利用1980—2015年6—8月我国逐日降水观测数据评估CWRF模式（Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model）多种参数化方案对我国夏季日降水的模拟能力,并考察累积概率变换偏差订正法（CDFt）的订正效果。通过将广义帕累托分布（GPD）引入到偏差订正模型中,提出针对极端降水的累积概率变换偏差订正法（XCDFt）,检验和评估其对极端降水订正的适用性。结果显示:CWRF模式微物理过程选用Morrison-aerosol参数化方案组合对我国降水场的模拟较好,CDFt订正效果良好;XCDFt偏差订正模型能够较好地提取模式建模与验证时期变化信号,订正后相比订正前与观测极端降水的概率分布更为接近;经过XCDFt订正后华南、华中和华北地区20年一遇的极端降水重现水平较模拟值更接近观测值,可为CWRF模式提高极端降水的业务预测水平提供参考。     

ENSO事件对云南及临近地区春末初夏降水的影响

本文采用合成及相关分析的方法,应用55年中国降水资料、美国NOAA海表温度资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了ENSO事件对我国云南及其邻近地区春末初夏降水的影响及物理机理.研究结果表明:(1)在El Ni(n)o (La Ni(n)a)年,云南大部分地区4～5月降水偏少(多),东部地区相关信号尤其明显;(2)...