区域GPS网对夏季降雨过程中大气可降水量的探测

利用GPS网的观测资料,通过GAMIT软件求得5个测站对流层天顶总延迟,进而求出各测站对流层湿延迟;利用湿延迟与大气可降水量之间的转换关系得到各测站的大气可降水量。将所得GPS-PWV值与同时段探空资料所得的大气可降水量以及地表实际降水量进行对比分析,结果表明:GPS-PWV值与探空资料所得的PWV值比较相符;在降水前后,GPS-PWV有比较明显的变化,降水一般出现在GPS-PWV值迅速增加的4-6h内;实际降水量峰值与GPS-PWV增量大小也有较强的相关性。     

Electrical structure of the crust in South Eastern Tibet

As part of the Sino-French earth science programme in Tibet, magnetotelluric and geomagnetic soundings were carried out in the southwestern part of Tibet. Eight magnetotelluric sounding sites and nineteen geomagnetic stations were occupied along roughly north-south profiles. The magnetotelluric profile runs from Lhozag to the south of Yangbajain to the north. The geomagnetic profile runs from Lang Kartse to Gulu. These experiments indicate a conductive layer at about 25 km in depth. This layer corresponds to the isotherm 1100°C. Shallow conductive structures related to the presence of significant partial melting were evidenced to the south of the Zangbo suture. A conductive structure was also evidenced at about 15 km in depth below the Nyainquentanglha range. This structure may correspond to partial melting due to the presence of fluids at the dipping plane between two overthrusting crustal blocks.     

Feasibility Analysis of the Use of Binary Genetic Algorithms as Importance Samplers Application to a 1-D DC Resistivity Inverse Problem

DC resistivity inverse problems are ill-posed. For the Vertical Electrical Sounding method the acceptable solutions lie in very narrow elongated-shape regions in the model space. To characterize this ensemble of solutions is a central question. In a Bayesian framework this issue is solved adopting as solution the so-called model posterior probability distribution. However, due to the nonlinearity of the problem, this distribution is not explicitly known, or it is difficult to calculate. Therefore, algorithms that efficiently sample the model space according to it (importance sampling) are very desirable. The main goal of this paper is to numerically explore the performance of binary genetic algorithms as posterior importance sampling strategies. Their behavior will be firstly analyzed using 2D synthetic posterior test functions bearing the relevant properties of the real geo-electrical inverse problem. The conclusions will be again checked through the histogram reconstruction of parameters in a synthetic VES case, and eventually, in a real, higher dimensional, sea-water coastal intrusion problem, by comparing the results with those obtained with a theoretically correct Metropolis-Hasting importance sampler (simulated annealing without cooling). Percentile curves are introduced as an effective tool for risk assessment. We show that binary genetic algorithms perform well under very general assumptions. When the roulette wheel is the selection method used, mutation is over 10%, and the algorithm does not incorporate elitism. The results do not depend on the values of the remaining tuning parameters. Finally, to improve the efficiency of the sampling strategy, we introduce a binary genetic algorithm with oriented search space. This is done with the help of linearization of the forward operator and singular value decomposition around the maximum posterior estimate. It is shown, also, that the logarithmic model parameterization is adequate for this task.     

山基GPS掩星折射率与探空折射率比较

本文简要阐述了山基GPS掩星数据处理过程,介绍了雾灵山(40.60.N,117.48.E,～2118 m)山基GPS掩星观测实验的基本情况,将雾灵山山基GPS掩星折射率与探空折射率进行了比较.按照山基掩星和无线电探空在空间(经纬度)上相差在2.以内、时间上相差在1.5 h以内的条件,共选出了206个山基掩星折射率廓线样本用于比较分析.山基掩星折射率与探空折射率的个例比较,表明山基掩星折射率廓线合理,且和探空折射率基本一致.统计结果显示,在2100 m 以下,山基掩星折射率与探空折射率相对偏差的平均值为-2.0%,标准偏差为7.3%.     

风廓线雷达与L波段雷达探空测风对比分析

为了解风廓线雷达探测的准确性,对北京南郊大气探测试验基地2006-2008年3年的观测资料与常规高空探测资料即L波段雷达探空测风数据进行了对比,计算并分析了不同高度、不同时次、不同风速条件下的对比结果,进行了相关性分析,计算了平均差和标准差。结果表明,二者测风结果有较好的一致性,半小时平均水平风u、v分量的标准差在2.3m/s左右,为风廓线雷达和L波段雷达探空共同的测量误差及不同采样空间和时间的水平风的差异。     

L波段雷达测风特殊情况处理技术

随着高空探测自动化水平和仪器精度的不断提高,气象探测数据也越来越精确,为了提高高空风探测结果的准确性和完整性,解决实际工作中因计算方法不适合、数据平滑误差等原因引起的数据错误或量得风层缺测等问题,提出利用L波段雷达测风秒数据进行风向判断弥补缺测数据,利用内插方法计算斜距减小人为误差等方法。这些方法在实际工作中取得了较好的效果,可以有效减少数据缺测和误差偏大现象,提高了高空气象探测数据的质量。     

大气红外探测器(AIRS)资料在塔克拉玛干沙漠的适用性检验与评估

由于沙漠恶劣的环境,观测站点稀少,塔克拉玛干沙漠地区的温度、湿度时空分布很难仅仅依靠少量的常规观测资料分析得到,高分辨率的大气红外探测器（AIRS）资料可有效弥补这个空缺。地形和地表发射率是影响AIRS反演温湿度廓线产品进度的两大要素,在塔里木盆地的塔克拉玛干沙漠地区使用AIRS温湿度产品必须首先对其质量进行检验。本研究主要对2016年7月1~15日晴空背景下AIRS反演的温度、位势高度、水汽数据在塔克拉玛干沙漠及周边绿洲地区在早晨和傍晚的可信度作了详细的对比分析。结果表明：（1） AIRS卫星资料集里的温度资料与探空数据有很好的吻合度。温度资料在沙漠腹地尚有较小偏差,在周边绿洲地区尤其是其中高层一致性较高。AIRS反演温度在沙漠腹地的塔中站在早晨各层的偏差明显大于傍晚,其余各站早晨和傍晚反演偏差不大。（2） AIRS卫星测得的位势高度资料几乎与探空资料的完全一致,是本对比研究中观测质量最好的要素,但AIRS探测层次能达到1 hPa,探测高度优于探空。（3）反演的湿度廓线与探空偏差较大。AIRS资料的混合比在300 hPa上的高层与探空吻合,在中层偏干,低层偏湿,低层水汽探测误差可能与盆地地形和沙漠下垫面有关。（4）早晨沙漠腹地的塔中站AIRS反演气温平均偏差在各层均比其余7个绿洲站明显偏大,在500 hPa以下的低层明显偏冷,在其上明显偏暖,偏暖幅度随高度的升高而增大。早晨绿洲AIRS反演温度在所有气压层上温度偏差绝对值均在1℃以内,均方根误差小于2℃,傍晚偏差绝对值在3℃以内,均方根误差在700 hPa以下的低层较高层大,700 hPa以上在3℃以内。绝对误差在早晨和傍晚均随高度的升高而减小,在100 hPa以上又有逆转,这种逆转在塔中站尤为明显。     

基于第8届国际探空比对试验对GTS1-2型探空仪技术改进与对比分析

经过国内学者和WMO的评估,GTS1-2型探空仪需要进行技术改进以适应高空气象观测业务的发展需求.2012年,GTS1-2型探空仪在原体制基础上进行了技术改进(暂命名为GTS1-2A型).2012年8月在阳江探空站开展比对试验,试验结果表明:GTS1-2A型探空仪夜间温度测量性能良好,系统误差在-0.3℃以内,标准偏差总体上在0.2℃左右;日间温度除探测中高层和出入云时外,系统误差整体上在-0.3℃,标准偏差整体上在0.4℃以内;气压除近地层有约-1.5 hPa的系统误差外,整体上系统误差和标准偏差小于GTS1-2型探空仪,尤其标准偏差在全量程范围内在0.7 hPa以内;GTS1-2A型探空仪湿度测量结果与RS92型探空仪一致性较好,灵敏度明显优于GTS1-2型探空仪,系统误差和标准偏差整体上均在10％RH以内.     

不同BDS星历反演大气可降水量精度分析

基于陕西地区3个GNSS观测站2018年1～6月数据,利用北斗卫星导航系统进行水汽反演。首先利用不同星历产品计算水汽结果,分别与利用IGF解算的水汽结果、探空数据探测结果进行比较;再将不同星历得到的水汽结果进行相互对比。结果表明,利用3种星历都能获得精度和可靠性较高的水汽结果,其中精密星历和快速星历反演水汽的精度相当,各测站偏差均优于1 mm,标准差和均方根误差均优于3.5 mm;利用超快速星历（预报部分）反演水汽在各测站的偏差约为1 mm,标准差和均方根误差均优于5 mm。综合3种产品反演水汽的对应精度可知,利用3种星历产品均可反演大气可降水量,且超快速星历（预报部分）计算的水汽值可为气象预报提供参考依据。     

Variations in the lower level of the PBL associated with the Yellow Sea fog-new observations by L-band radar

The Chinese east coastal areas and marginal seas are foggy regions.The development of effective forecasting methodsrests upon a comprehensive knowledge of the fog phenomena.This study provides new observations associated with the sea fogsover the northwestern Yellow Sea by means of L-band radar soundings with a high vertical resolution of 30 m.The monthly tem-perature lapse rate,the Richardson Numbers,and the humidity show obvious seasonal variations in the lower level of the planetaryboundary layer (PBL) that are related to the onset,peak and end of the Yellow Sea fog season.The typical pattern of stratification forthe sea fog season in the northwestern Yellow Sea is that a stable layer of about 400 m thick caps a 150 m conditionally unstable layer.Besides,the differences between fogs and stratus clouds in terms of humidity,turbulence and temperature are analyzed,which is ofsignificance for sea fog forecast and detection by satellites.The thickness of the sea fogs varies in different stages of the fog season,and is associated with the temperature inversion.The numerical simulation proves that the seasonal variations obtained by the radarwell represent the situations over the Yellow Sea.