WATER-QUALITY MONITORING AND SPECIOUS DATA: THE EXAMPLE OF GEORGES CREEK,MARYLAND∗

Concurrent water data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Corps of Army Engineers, and the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene at the same site in order to describe present conditions and predict future environmental change in the Georges Creek basin in western Maryland. Evaluation of the data sets reveals measurement errors and weaknesses in sample design so that published complications contain significant errors. Unless these errors can be identified, policy based on such information may have unfortunate results.     

Recent progress in estimating uncertainty in geomagnetic field modeling

Abstract

Recent work pertaining to estimating error and accuracies in geomagnetic field modeling is reviewed from a unified viewpoint and illustrated with examples. The formulation of a finite dimensional approximation to the underlying infinite dimensional problem is developed. Central to the formulation is an inner product and norm in the solution space through which a priori information can be brought to bear on the problem. Such information is crucial to estimation of the effects of higher degree fields at the Core-Mantle boundary (CMB) because the behavior of higher degree fields is masked in our measurements by the presence of the field from the Earth's crust. Contributions to the errors in predicting geophysical quantities based on the approximate model are separated into three categories: (1) the usual error from the measurement noise; (2) the error from unmodeled fields, i.e. from sources in the crust, ionosphere, etc.; and (3) the error from truncating to a finite dimensioned solution and prediction space. The combination of the first two is termed low degree error while the third is referred to as truncation error.

The error analysis problem consists of “characterizing” the difference δz = z—z, where z is some quantity depending on the magnetic field and z is the estimate of z resulting from our model. Two approaches are discussed. The method of Confidence Set Inference (CSI) seeks to find an upper bound for |z—?|. Statistical methods, i.e. Bayesian or Stochastic Estimation, seek to estimate E(δz² ), where E is the expectation value. Estimation of both the truncation error and low degree error is discussed for both approaches. Expressions are found for an upper bound for |δz| and for E(δz² ). Of particular interest is the computation of the radial field, B., at the CMB for which error estimates are made as examples of the methods. Estimated accuracies of the Gauss coefficients are given for the various methods. In general, the lowest error estimates result when the greatest amount of a priori information is available and, indeed, the estimates for truncation error are completely dependent upon the nature of the a priori information assumed. For the most conservative approach, the error in computing point values of B_r at the CMB is unbounded and one must be content with, e.g., averages over some large area. The various assumptions about a priori information are reviewed. Work is needed to extend and develop this information. In particular, information regarding the truncated fields is needed to determine if the pessimistic bounds presently available are realistic or if there is a real physical basis for lower error estimates. Characterization of crustal fields for degree greater than 50 is needed as is more rigorous characterization of the external fields.     

敦煌戈壁冬夏季地表辐射与能量平衡特征对比研究

利用敦煌戈壁夏（2006年7月）、冬（2007年1月1—10日）季观测得到的微气象资料,比较了夏、冬季敦煌戈壁的地表辐射平衡、能量平衡特征。分析了地表反照率（Albedo）与土壤特性的关系,发现地表反照率和表层土壤温度日变化呈反相关;冬季地表反照率和土壤湿度的线性相关差,夏季地表反照率和土壤湿度的线性相关性好;地表反照率和土壤热通量呈反相关,并且冬季二者的拟合性好于夏季。分析了降水前后各能量通量的变化,发现阵雨时感热H是变小的,降雨过后H和净辐射Rn有明显的增大,土壤热通量Gn在降雨过后也有增大,潜热LE变化微弱,对阵性降水强迫后的非平衡态的张弛时间大约为3 d。     

Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.     

岩石破裂中的光声效应

在实验室条件下研究了花岗岩样品受单轴压缩破裂过程中的光和声发射效应,所得可见光谱轮廓与空气分子的光谱相似,但具有能量高于紫光的成份。除在主破裂时有大的光脉冲和声发射外,在主破裂前也记录到弱的光脉冲,它们与大的声发射率有同步现象。     

NH4Cl水溶液的微观结构和宏观物性研究

通过拉曼光谱、同步辐射X射线散射和密度泛函理论(DFT)模拟,研究了质量分数为1.0 %-28.0 %的NH₄Cl水溶液的微观结构变化。同时在室温下测量了粘度、接触角和电导率。由拉曼光谱和密度泛函理论模拟结果可知,当溶质浓度升高至10.0 %时,在2900 cm_-1^和3100 cm_-1^{附近出现了明显的}N-H作用峰,且随着质量分数的升高,NH₄Cl水溶液中的氢键类型发生了转变。X射线散射结果表明,当NH₄Cl水溶液质量分数升高至10.0 %时,差值对分布函数G(r)在2.98 ?附近出现明显双峰,表明在该浓度下溶液中NH₄₊^-Cl_-^{接触离子对开始成为主要微观作用形式。对}NH₄Cl水溶液的宏观物性研究表明,粘度、接触角和电导率均随着NH₄Cl水溶液质量分数的增加而增大。作者推断,NH₄Cl水溶液中氢键类型的转变、O-H...N键占比增多以及逐渐增加的NH₄₊^-Cl_-^{接触离子对},是粘度和接触角随溶质浓度增加而增加的微观本质因素;电导率的增加与溶液中有效导电离子数量增加有关。     

X-Ray Line Transfer in Plasmas with Large Velocity Gradients

An astrophysically relevant experiment is compared to the output of a multidimensional radiation transfer code in which populations and radiation are self-consistently treated. Experimental Al Ly α spectra obtained with a very high-resolution spectrometer are presented as quantitative evidence of dot plasma non-planar expansion. Analysis of these spectra using the code is performed, in particular examining the effects of velocity gradients in directions other than that of the primary expansion. These calculations are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Usage of the Ly α doublet as a planarity diagnostic is discussed.     

基于EMD和BP算法的降水数据插补

为解决气温观测记录缺测的问题,选择反距离权重插值（Inverse Distance Weighted,IDW）、普通克里金插值（Ordinary Kriging,OK）和多元线性回归（Multiple Linear Regression,MLR）三种方法,以湖北省2020年为例,对全省逐日平均气温（T）、最高气温（T_max）和最低气温（T_min）进行空间插补,并采用平均绝对误差（Mean Absolute Error,MAE）对3种方法的插补结果进行检验。结果表明：用MLR插补得到的T_max、T_min、T的MAE最小,分别为0.41℃、0.31℃和0.20℃,其中T的插补误差在1℃以内的站点比例高达100%;相比IDW和OK,MLR插补结果的MAE空间分布均匀,其不仅随海拔高度变化较小,随季节变化也相对较小。单站试验结果表明,当用于MLR模型的样本数量越多、时间离散度越大时,MLR对气温的插补效果越好。总体上,对日气温缺测数据的插补效果,MLR最优,IDW次之,OK最差;对于建立气象站点长时间连续气温数据集而言,MLR更适合解决区域自动气象站日气温数据缺测问题。