黑潮近岸分支流在2017年9月与2019年9月差异的研究

通过对比2017年9月和2019年9月的温盐大面观测数据,发现东海陆架上黑潮近岸分支流的路径在两次观测中存在显著差异。2019年9月黑潮近岸分支流中上游的路径相较2017年9月明显的东向偏移,造成黑潮次表层水入侵东海近岸海域的强度较弱。为了探究黑潮近岸分支流的上述显著年际差异的原因,利用卫星高度计数据和再分析风场数据,通过分析大面观测同期的绝对海表动力高度、地转流场以及海表风场的差异,阐述了黑潮近岸分支流路径产生显著年际差异的动力机制。2019年8—9月东海海表较2017年8—9月盛行更强的西南向沿岸季风,强的西南向沿岸风通过埃克曼输运促使水体向岸堆积并在近岸区域沿岸西南向堆积。因此, 2019年8—9月东海近岸海域的跨岸方向压力梯度与2017年8—9月相比较小而沿岸压力梯度则较大。2019年8—9月,受压力梯度分布的影响,东海近岸海域产生西南向的沿岸地转流和离岸地转流。其中西南向的沿岸地转流会在底部生成离岸的底埃克曼流,离岸底埃克曼流和离岸地转流共同抑制了黑潮近岸分支流的向岸入侵。这导致2019年9月黑潮近岸分支流的路径向东偏移,黑潮次表层水入侵浙江近海及长江口区域的强度随之减弱。通过分析研究实际观测案例,阐述了风影响黑潮近岸分支流入侵东海近岸海域的动力机制,同时明确指出海表风场会从黑潮近岸分支流的中上游区域改变其路径,进而对黑潮入侵东海近岸海域产生重要影响。     

Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China, 1986–2013

Climate and land‐use changes could strongly affect wind erosion and in turn cause a series of environmental problems. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess potential wind erosion rate (PWER) response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River (NIMRYR), China. The watershed of NIMRYR suffers from serious wind erosion hazards, and over recent decades, wind erosion intensity and distribution has changed, following climate and land‐use changes. To understand these processes in the NIMRYR watershed, the Integrated Wind Erosion Modelling System (IWEMS) and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) were used to calculate the PWER under different climate conditions and land‐use scenarios, and to assess the influences of climate and land‐use changes on the PWER. The results show the PWER in the whole watershed had a significant declining trend from 1986 to 2013. The results of the relationship among PWER, climate change, and land‐use changes showed that climate change was the dominant control on the PWER change in this watershed. Compared to the period 1986–1995, the average PWER decreased 23.32% and 64.98% as a result of climate change in the periods 1996–2005 and 2006–2013, respectively. In contrast with climate change, the effects of land‐use changes on the average PWER were much lower, and represented a change in PWER of less than 3.3% across the whole watershed. The study method we used could provide some valuable reference for wind erosion modelling, and the research results should help climate and land‐use researchers to develop strategies to reduce wind erosion. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Verification of short-term runoff forecasts for a small Philippine basin (Marikina)

Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380 km²). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3 hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a “no-forecast” scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.     

Integration of gauge and radar rainfall to enable best simulation of hydrological parameters

This study is about use of spatially distributed rain in physically based hydrological models. In recent years, spatially distributed radar rainfall data have become available. The distributed radar rain is used to precisely model hydrologic processes and it is more realistic than the past practice of distribution methods like Thiessen polygons. Radar provides a highly accurate spatial distribution of rainfall and greatly improves the basin average rainfall estimates. However, quantification of the exact amount of rainfall from radar observation is relatively difficult. Thus, the fundamental idea of this study is to apply hourly gauge and radar rainfall data in a distributed hydrological model to simulate hydrological parameters. Hence the comparison is made between the outcomes of the WetSpa model from radar rainfall distribution and gauge rainfall distributed by the Thiessen polygon technique. The comparative plots of the hydrograph and the results of hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture, recharge and interflow, reflect the spatially distributed radar input performing well for model outflow simulation.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Pappenberger     

A wind tunnel investigation of particle segregation,ripple formation and armouring within sand beds of systematically varied texture

This paper reports on a wind tunnel investigation of particle segregation, ripple formation and surface armouring within sand beds of systematically varied particle size distribution, from coarsely skewed to bimodal. By design, the system was closed with no external inputs of mass from an external particle feed. Particles too coarse to travel in saltation for the given range in wind speed were dyed red in order to distinguish them in optical images from finer sand particles, which could be entrained into the unidirectional airflow. A 3D laser scanner measured the changing bed topography at regular time intervals during 18 experiments involving varied combinations of wind speed and bed texture. Image classification techniques were used to investigate the coincident self‐organization of the two populations of particles, as distinguished by their colour. As soon as saltation commenced, some of the red particles segregated into thin discontinuous patches. Particle trapping and sheltering on these rough patches was strongly favoured, causing them to grow preferentially. During the earliest stages of formation, bedform growth coincided with: (i) rapid coarsening of the surface texture; and (ii) the merging of proto‐ripple ‘crests’ to generate larger rhythmic bedforms of lower frequency. Consistent with previous work, ripple size was observed to increase under stronger winds when not exceeding the threshold for entrainment of the coarse‐mode or red particles from the crest. With declining rates of mass transport and particle segregation as the bed surface armoured, and the consequent deceleration of ripple propagation through to the end of each experiment, all surfaces eventually attained a steady‐state morphometry. At saturation, the largest ripples developed on beds having the lowest initial concentration of red particles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

OC4漂浮式风电平台的水弹性响应及波浪载荷研究

漂浮式风电平台在波浪中的摇晃运动会导致塔架根部产生很大的弯矩,极大地威胁平台结构安全。同时流体的附连水质量效应对平台塔架结构的动响应有着较为显著的影响,因此充分考虑这种流固耦合效应有利于更加准确地评估平台塔架的结构动响应。采用三维频域线性水弹性方法计算塔架在流体作用下的结构共振频率特征以及各阶模态振动的主坐标响应特性,然后通过弹性模态叠加法获得塔架的弯矩载荷。并结合概率学手段,预报了短期极限海况下塔架弯曲载荷响应,为新一代漂浮式风电平台结构安全性评估和方案设计提供了技术支撑。     

畸形波作用下张力腿浮式风力机动力响应特性

针对张力腿系泊浮式风力机的基础运动,忽略柔性构件的影响,建立气动—水动—系泊非线性耦合运动方程。在运动控制方程中包含张力腿系泊系统的非线性回复刚度,桨距角控制以及浮式基础运动对空气动力载荷的影响。在波浪载荷的计算中考虑二阶波浪载荷的作用。采用随机频率相位角调制法生成畸形波波面时历,计算在畸形波作用下张力腿型浮式风力机的动力响应特性。数值模拟结果表明,在畸形波作用下,浮式基础的运动及空气动力性能均受到了显著的影响。其中浮式基础的纵荡和纵摇运动分别受二阶差频与和频波浪力的影响,而垂荡运动的增加则主要是受下沉运动的影响。在畸形波经过的时刻,风力机的功率系数迅速下降,水平方向的风载荷波动先减小,随后其数值急剧下降,而垂直方向的风载荷波动增大。     

基于合成孔径雷达回波信号的海洋溢油监测方法研究

海洋油污染是各类海洋污染中最常见、分布面积最广且危害程度最大的污染之一。近年来,海洋特别是近海人类活动频繁,且随着海上运输和石油加工业的发展,油田井喷、钻井平台爆炸、船舶碰撞等所造成的溢油事故增多,因而,监测海洋溢油具有重要的经济和社会现实意义。研究采用MatLAB工具,通过图像预处理(图像校正和增强)、特征提取和神经网络识别等方法,对合成孔径雷达(SAR)海洋溢油图像进行处理,最终期望实现半自动区分SAR图像上各类目标,并进行多种神经网络方法效果比较。研究首先对SAR海洋溢油图像进行初步人工识别;然后进行图像预处理(几何校正、滤波处理等)和基于灰度共生矩阵的特征值计算;最后,借助神经网络方法对溢油区域和疑似溢油区域进行分类,输出分类处理后的图像。通过输出图像分析发现,神经网络能对SAR海洋溢油图像中溢油、海水、土地3类目标进行明确分类,且RBF神经网络模型精度高于BP神经网络。本文提出的半自动分类方法不仅能提高SAR图像处理效率,将分类目标扩充有溢油和非溢油扩充到溢油、海水、土地3类,提高图像处理的全面性,同时通过比较RBF和BP神经网络在SAR溢油图像分类上的具体优劣,有着较好实际意义。     

Experimental study of aeolian sand ripples in a wind tunnel

The topographic parameters and propagation velocity of aeolian sand ripples reflect complex erosion, transport, and deposition processes of sand on the land surface. In this study, three Nikon cameras located in the windward (0–1 m), middle (4.5–5.5 m), and downwind (9–10 m) zones of a 10 m long sand bed are used to continuously record changes in sand ripples. Based on the data extracted from these images, this study reaches the following conclusions. (1) The initial formation and full development times of sand ripples over a flatbed decrease with wind velocity. (2) The wavelengths of full development sand ripples are approximately twice the wavelengths of initially formed sand ripples. Both wavelengths increase linearly with friction velocity. During the developing stage of sand ripples, the wavelength increases linearly with time. (3) The propagation velocity of full development sand ripples is approximately 0.6 times that of the initially formed sand ripples. The propagation velocity of both initial and full development of sand ripples increase as power functions with respect to friction velocity. During the developing stage of sand ripples, the propagation velocity decreases with time following a power law. These results provide new information for understanding the formation and evolution of aeolian sand ripples and help improve numerical simulations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The formation of an anabranching planform in a sandy floodplain by increased flows and sediment load

Anabranching rivers evolve in various geomorphic settings and various river planforms are present within these multi‐channel systems. In some cases, anabranches develop meandering patterns. Such river courses existed in Europe prior to intensive hydro‐technical works carried out during the last 250 years. Proglacial stream valleys, inherited from the last glaciation, provided a suitable environment for the development of anabranching rivers (wide valleys floors with abundant sand deposits). The main objective of the present study is to reconstruct the formation of an anabranching river planform characterized by meandering anabranches. Based on geophysical and geological data obtained from field research and a reconstruction of palaeodischarges, a model of the evolution of an anabranching river formed in a sandy floodplain is proposed. It is demonstrated that such a river system evolves from a meandering to an anabranching planform in periods of high flows that contribute to the formation of crevasse splays. The splay channels evolve then into new meandering flow paths that form ‘second‐order’ crevasses, avulsions and cutoffs. The efficiency of the flow is maintained by the formation of cutoffs and avulsions preventing the development of high sinuosity channels, and redirecting the flow to newly formed channels during maximum flow events. A comparison with other anabranching systems revealed that increased discharges and sediment loads are capable of forming anabranching planforms both in dryland and temperate climate zones. The sediment type available for transport, often inherited from older sedimentary environments, is an important variable determining whether the channel planform is anabranching, with actively migrating channels, or anastomosing, with stable, straight or sinuous branches. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.