基于PSInSAR技术的长白山天池火山形变监测

将PSInSAR技术引入长白山天池火山的形变监测,获取了1992—1998年和2007—2010年2个时段的火山形变信息。结果显示:天池火山在这2个时段内整体抬升,1992—1998年火山较为活跃,雷达视线向平均形变速率为6mm/a,2007—2010年火山活动趋于平缓,雷达视线向平均形变速率为3mm/a;结合水准和GPS数据分析,发现火山口区域地表抬升明显,远离火山口处较为稳定。文中PSInSAR结果与水准数据能较好地吻合,且在空间上有较大覆盖范围,能更直观地反映火山地表的形变特征。     

Mitigating systematic error in topographic models derived from UAV and ground‐based image networks

High resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are increasingly produced from photographs acquired with consumer cameras, both from the ground and from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, although such DEMs may achieve centimetric detail, they can also display systematic broad‐scale error that restricts their wider use. Such errors which, in typical UAV data are expressed as a vertical ‘doming’ of the surface, result from a combination of near‐parallel imaging directions and inaccurate correction of radial lens distortion. Using simulations of multi‐image networks with near‐parallel viewing directions, we show that enabling camera self‐calibration as part of the bundle adjustment process inherently leads to erroneous radial distortion estimates and associated DEM error. This effect is relevant whether a traditional photogrammetric or newer structure‐from‐motion (SfM) approach is used, but errors are expected to be more pronounced in SfM‐based DEMs, for which use of control and check point measurements are typically more limited. Systematic DEM error can be significantly reduced by the additional capture and inclusion of oblique images in the image network; we provide practical flight plan solutions for fixed wing or rotor‐based UAVs that, in the absence of control points, can reduce DEM error by up to two orders of magnitude. The magnitude of doming error shows a linear relationship with radial distortion and we show how characterization of this relationship allows an improved distortion estimate and, hence, existing datasets to be optimally reprocessed. Although focussed on UAV surveying, our results are also relevant to ground‐based image capture. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Development of an operational rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis

Abstract

Automatic raingauge data often serve as an important input to hydrological and weather warning operations. They are not only fundamental in quantitative rainfall analysis, but also act as the ground truth in warning operation and forecast validation. Quality control is required before the data can be used quantitatively due to systematic and random errors. Extremely large random errors and unreasonably small or false zero values can hamper effective monitoring of heavy rain. Yet both are difficult to detect in real-time by objective means. In an attempt to address these problems, a rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis was developed. The important threshold values required in the data quality control of 60-min raingauge rainfall were determined from a detailed analysis of the distributions of rainfall residuals defined as the arithmetic difference and the logarithm of the ratio between a raingauge measurement and its co-kriging estimate. The scheme has been developed and is in real-time use in Hong Kong, a coastal city of about 1100 km² area with more than 150 raingauges installed. Geographically, it is located in the subtropics and dominated by heavy convective rainfall in the summer. As a basis of the quality-control scheme, the co-kriging rainfall analysis was shown through a verification exercise to be superior to those obtained by the Barnes analysis and ordinary kriging of raingauge data. The performance of the quality-control algorithm was assessed using selected cases and controlled tests, and was found to be satisfactory, with a high error detection rate for the two targeted types of error. Limitations and operational issues identified during a real-time trial of the quality-control scheme are also discussed.

Citation Yeung, H.Y., Man, C., Chan, S.T., and Seed, A., 2014. Development of an operational rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1285–1299. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.839873     

兰新第二双线铁路防风明洞实验段风荷载数值模拟研究

介绍了高速铁路防风明洞的基本作用及设计方法;利用计算流体动力学原理中的数学模型及控制方程,对兰新第二双线铁路防风明洞大风作用下的风荷载进行了分析;通过计算工况的假定以及边界条件的合理设定,采用有限体积法建立防风明洞数值分析模型,并模拟计算了平地路段、浅路堑地段和路堤地段三大类工况和70、60、50、40m/s4种风速情况。研究结果表明：①开孔情况下,明洞各部位所受风荷载随着风速增大而增大;②明洞迎风侧均为正压,平地地段与路堤地段所受正压较接近,最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,迎风边墙正压为3202Pa;③明洞拱顶及背风侧均为负压,浅路堑地段所受负压最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,拱顶负压为-3550Pa;④各地段背风侧所受负压均小于-1500Pa,背风墙脚与背风边墙受力基本相同;⑤各地段各风速情况下,拱顶处负压均为最大;⑥开孔情况下的明洞各部位风荷载,普遍小于不开孔情况;⑦明洞开孔附近有回流风速,并随着外界风速增大而增大。     

土石坝地震永久变形参数反演方法研究

提出了一种基于径向基网络的土石坝永久变形参数反演分析模型。该模型充分利用了径向基神经网络的非线性映射能力,只需要进行少量的样本设计,即可反演坝体永久变形参数,可以解决土石坝动力参数反演计算耗时长的问题。同时在对永久变形参数进行灵敏度分析的基础上,建立考虑参数灵敏度的网络训练目标函数,进一步提高了反演精度。将所建立的模型用于紫平铺面板堆石坝地震永久变形参数反演,采用三维有限元法进行静动力分析,并采用改进的沈珠江模型计算坝体地震永久变形。结果表明,反演参数计算的大坝地震永久变形和坝体实测永久变形数值接近,趋势一致,因而所建立的模型能够有效地反演坝体地震永久变形参数,为土石坝的动力参数反演提供了一种简便、有效的方法。     

A model for retrieval of dual linear polarization radar fields from model simulation outputs

An algorithm for retrieving polarimetric variables from numerical model fields is developed. By using this technique, radar reflectivity at horizontal polarization~ differential reflectivity, specific differential phase shift and correlation coefficients between the horizontal and vertical polarization signals at zero lag can be derived from rain, snow and hail contents of numerical model outputs. Effects of environmental temperature and the melting process on polarimetric variables are considered in the algorithm. The algorithm is applied to the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） model simulation results for a hail storm. The spatial distributions of the derived parameters are reasonable when compared with observational knowledge. This work provides a forward model for assimilation of dual linear polarization radar data into a mesoscale model.     

一次蒙古冷涡影响下宁夏强对流天气分析

2004年6月14、15日连续2 d宁夏大部地区出现了强雷阵雨天气,引黄灌区局部地区遭受冰雹袭击。利用常规气象资料、多普勒雷达产品等资料,对此次过程进行了天气学分析,分析表明这是一次典型的蒙古冷涡旋转东移南压造成的宁夏连续性强对流天气过程。并根据一般性雷雨与伴有冰雹的强雷雨天气发生时雷达回波的差异,统计得到宁夏发生强对流性天气的监测预警指标,同时利用宁夏中尺度区域模式MM5预报产品对其相关物理量进行了模拟分析,得到了有价值的结果。     

热带大洋对纬向和经向风应力的联合响应

考虑了经向风应力和纬向风应力联合作用下热带大洋的响应问题.结果表明,只有一阶的经向风应力或具有辐合辐散的经向风应力才对最后的速度场和位势场造成影响.零阶的扰动温跃层和纬圈流受风应力的直接驱动和Kelvin波、Rossby短波的影响,而Rossby短波由经向风应力直接造成;二阶模则受风应力的直接驱动和Rossby短波的作用,同时经向风应力也产生了附加的Rossby短波.另外,在西边界处存在很强的暖水补充到赤道的现象,经向风应力有使暖水向赤道输送的作用,而西风应力使西边界处的暖水向东输送.     

北半球平流层中低层纬向风季节转换及转换层特征的分析研究

使用1979～2005年NCEP/NCAR 再分析数据,分析了北半球平流层中低层（300 hPa至10 hPa）纬向风的季节转换规律,并采用二维空间场相似性方法确定了平流层的季节过渡日期。分析表明,平流层大气环流基本为冬夏二元状态,冬夏转换具有突变性;其季节过渡在纬向是接近同步进行的,而在经向则有时间差异,无论是冬夏转换还是夏冬转换高纬都要早于低纬。在平流层中部（10～70 hPa）季节过渡是自上而向下进行的;而在平流层下部（100～200 hPa）季节过渡的上下传递关系则比较复杂,在不同的纬度带有不同的表现。在北半球热带外地区,平流层中部东风期的起止日期与相似性方法计算得到的平流层季节过渡日期之间具有较好的对应关系,在东风期之前和之后往往各存在持续10天左右的零风—弱风期。     

利用船测近海层湍流热通量资料验证OAFlux数据集

美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,WHOI)的客观分析海气通量(Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes,OAFlux)数据集中的近海层湍流热通量数据被公认为最可信,并被广泛地用于气候模式模拟结果检验。利用NOAA ETL(Environmental Technology Laboratory)两个固定观测站点的科学试验的船测通量数据库(TOGA COARE试验观测资料和KAWJEX试验观测资料),对OAFlux的热通量进行验证。结果表明:OAFlux的潜热通量普遍高于船测值,并且风速较大时,两者差异较大。风速对潜热通量的变化趋势起主导作用,海表和大气湿度差影响甚微。低风条件下,OAFlux的潜热通量和船测值差异则很小。海面湍流感热交换很弱,通量值本身依然受到风速的主导作用,但由于感热通量值与观测仪器误差十分接近,导致比较分析异常困难。分析结果表明:在上述两个观测试验期内,由于海表空气湿度和大气的湿度差变化不显著,海气相互作用的强度主要取决于海面风速的变化。