亚欧500hPa旬平均形势预报的改进及检验

利用数值预报产品，对原亚欧５００ｈＰａ旬平均形势预报方程作了改进。除对空间和时间尺度上作了改进外，在预报因子的选择上，由亚欧地区的单点相关，扩张至整个北半球的相关；并根据长波天气系统的气候地理分布和遥相关分析等方法，选择关键区作为候选因子，组建了新的形势预报方程。经检验比较，新的形势预报方程高度距平正确和长波系统位置正确率分别提高了０．１５－０．２０和０．１０。     

RETRIEVAL OF HORIZONTAL WIND PERTURBATION FIELDS FROM SIMULATED SINGLE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS*

The application of the single Doppler radar dataset analysis is usually confined to the assumption that the actual wind is linearly distributed or uniform locally.Following some dynamic features of convective weather,a conceptual model of moderate complexity is constructed,wherewith a horizontal wind perturbation field is retrieved directly from the single Doppler radar measurements.The numerical experiments are based on a 3-D cloud model-generated convective cell,whose radial velocity component is taken as the radar observations that are put into the closed equations based on the conceptual model to retrieve the horizontal wind perturbation field.After the initial field is properly treated,the retrieval equation is solved in terms of the 2-D FFT technique and the sensitivity to noise is examined.Finally,contrast analysis is done of the retrieved and the cloud model output wind fields,indicating the usefulness of the approach proposed in this paper.     

Methoxy formation in the reaction of CH3O2 radicals with NO

Formation of methoxy (CH₃O) radicals in the reaction (1) CH₃O₂+NOCH₃O+NO₂ at 298 K has been observed directly using time resolved LIF. The branching ratio % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeqOXdyMaae% 4qaiaabIeadaWgaaWcbaGaae4maaqabaGccaqGpbGaaeiiaiaabIca% ieqacaWF9aGaa8hiaiaa-nbicaWFGaGaeuiLdqKaai4waiaaboeaca% qGibWaaSbaaSqaaiaabodaaeqaaOGaae4taiaac2facaWFVaGaeuiL% dqKaai4waiaaboeacaqGibWaaSbaaSqaaiaabodaaeqaaOGaae4tam% aaBaaaleaacaqGYaaabeaakiaac2facaqGPaaaaa!4E31!\[\phi {\rm{CH}}_{\rm{3}} {\rm{O (}} = -- \Delta [{\rm{CH}}_{\rm{3}} {\rm{O}}]/\Delta [{\rm{CH}}_{\rm{3}} {\rm{O}}_{\rm{2}} ]{\rm{)}}\] has been determined by quantitative cw-UV-laser absorption at 257 nm of CH₃O₂ and CH₃ONO, the product of the consecutive methoxy trapping reaction (2) % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaae4qaiaabI% eadaWgaaWcbaGaae4maaqabaGccaqGpbacbeGaa83kaiaa-bcaieaa% caGFobGaa43taiaa+bcacaGFOaGaa83kaiaa+1eacaGFPaGaa4hiai% abgkziUkaabccacaqGdbGaaeisamaaBaaaleaacaqGZaaabeaakiaa% b+eacaqGGaGaaeOtaiaab+eacaqGGaGaa4hkaiaa-TcacaGFnbGaa4% xkaiaa+5cacaGFGaGaa4hiaiabeA8aMnaaBaaajqwaacqaaiaaboea% caqGibWaaSbaaKazcaiabaGaae4maaqabaqcKfaGaiaab+eaaSqaba% aaaa!55AC!\[{\rm{CH}}_{\rm{3}} {\rm{O}} + NO ( + M) \to {\rm{ CH}}_{\rm{3}} {\rm{O NO }}( + M). \phi _{{\rm{CH}}_{\rm{3}} {\rm{O}}} \] is found to be (1.0±0.2). The rate constant k ₁ is (7±2) 10^-12 cm³/molecule · s in good agreement with previous results.     

多物理参量检验防雹效果的研究

除使用地面冰雹资料（即冰雹动能、质量、降雹强度等）外，还选用了反映雹云变化的雷达回波参量等１０个物理参量，作为作业效果的检验量，检验防雹效果。结果表明：高炮作业后雷达回波顶高、强度及３０ｄｂｚ强回波顶高显著地比作业前小；作业区比未作业区冰雹动能、冰雹质量、冰雹动能通量、质量通量、最大冰雹直径、数密度以及降雹持续时间也有明显减小。     

Modern Numerical Ephemerides of Planets and the Importance of Ranging Observations for Their Creation

The JPL planetary and lunar ephemerides – DE200/LE200, DE403/LE403, DE405/LE405 and the planetary and lunar ephemerides, EPM87, EPM98, and EPM2000, constructed in the Institute of Applied Astronomy of RAS are described. Common properties and differences of the various ephemerides are given. Graphical comparisons of the DE ephemerides with each other and with the EPM ephemerides are presented. A fairly good agreement of planetary orbits is between DE403, DE405 and EPM98, EPM2000, respectively, over the interval of 120 years (1886–2006) covered by EPM98 and EPM2000. Some differences are explained by a slight disagreement in representing the orbits of Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta as they affect the planets. The accurate radar observations of planets and spacecraft make it possible not only to improve the orbital elements of planets but to determine a broad set of astronomical constants as well: km/AU, parameters of Mars rotation including its precessional rate, the masses of Jupiter, Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta, relativistic parameters of the PPN formalism, the variability of the gravitational constant G. These have been obtained in the fitting process of the DE405 and EPM2000 ephemerides to observational data, including nearly 80000 American and Russian radar observations of planets (1961–1997), ranging and doppler to the Viking and Pathfinder landers, and other miscellaneous measurements from various sources and spacecraft.     

水稻时域散射特征分析及其应用研究

通过对肇庆试验区1996年和1997年获取的多时相、多模式雷达卫星（RADARSAT）数据分析,从图像上直接提取地物的后向散射系数,结合实地测量水稻的生长结构参数,建立了水稻生长模型,分析了不同生长周期（从80天到120－125天）4种类型水稻的时域散射特性。利用1997年4月至7月获取的7景标准模式雷达卫星数据,对试验区内三个县和两个行政区共5000km^2面积范围内的作物进行分类和水稻产量预估算,水稻类型分类及面积量算精度达91％。结果表明：利用雷达遥感数据进行水稻种植面积量算和估产需要水稻生长期间三个时相的数据,即插秧期、抽穗期、收割前期。若能够获得多参数雷达图像,可以用插秧期和收割前期的两个时相图像来代替上述的三个时相图像同样可以达到种植面积量算和估产的效果。这一结果充分说明多时相雷达卫星数据对我国南方水稻长势监测及估产具有明显优势和潜力。     

On the relationship of thunderstorm ice hydrometeor characteristics and total lightning measurements

Satellite-borne and ground-based devices for the detection of lightning offer the opportunity to explore relationships–on all significant scales up to global–between lightning frequency, f, and other thundercloud parameters. Calculations predict that f is proportional to the product of the downflux p of solid precipitation and the upward mass flux, I, of ice crystals. This prediction has received support from limited computational studies. The physical reasons for such a relationship are explained in terms of the paramount role of ice in the electrification of thunderstorms. Herein, this prediction is subjected to further, preliminary examination through analysis of lightning and dual-polarimetric radar data collected during the STERAO experiment conducted in Northern Colorado during the summer of 1996. The analysis has yielded some highly provisional support for this flux hypothesis. Computed trends of radar derived hydrometeor fractions of solid precipitation and small ice show correlation to the total lightning frequency and raise the possibility of determining values of p and/or I from lightning measurements.It is shown that the extent to which the observed correlations between f and both solid precipitation and small ice trends are or are not strong can provide an indication as to whether the lightning activity is limited by the available concentrations of precipitating or non-precipitating ice in the upper regions of the charging zone of the thundercloud, where most of the charge transfer occurs. It is demonstrated that the most accurate determinations of precipitation rate p from measurements of lighting frequency f are likely to be for conditions where the field-growth is limited by the availability of graupel pellets. It is shown that the simultaneous time variations of f and solid precipitation trends of the type obtained in the STERAO experiment could enable us to determine the nature of the dominant glaciation process operative in the thunderclouds studied.     

Comparison of lightning activity and radar-retrieved microphysical properties in EULINOX storms

A combined analysis of microphysical thunderstorm properties derived by C-band polarimetric Doppler radar measurements and lightning observations from two ground-based systems are presented. Three types of storms, a multicell, a supercell, and a squall line, that were observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides project (EULINOX) are investigated. Correlations are sought between the mass of rain, graupel, hail, and snow derived form radar observations at different height levels and the electrical activity, represented either by cloud-to-ground or intracloud flashes. These relationships are explained by connecting the radar-derived properties with the non-inductive charging process. For the multicell and the supercell storm, the lightning activity can be linearly correlated to both the hydrometeor total mass and class specific mass in the upper part of the storm. It is shown that the fractions of graupel and hail above the −20 °C-level in these storms positively correlate with the intracloud flash activity in the supercell, and negatively for the cloud-to-ground lightning frequency in the multicell. No such relation can be established for the squall line, indicating that the convective organization plays a crucial role in the lightning development. The analysis of the masses in the different storms shows that lightning activity cannot be parameterized by total mass alone, other parameters have to be identified. The results provide important information for all lightning studies that rely on bulk properties of thunderstorms, e.g., the parameterization of lightning in mesoscale models or the nowcasting of lightning by radar.     

Application of the hydrologic visibility concept to estimate rainfall measurement quality of two planned weather radars

This paper presents a practical application of the “hydrologic visibility” concept to select the future site of two planned weather radars of the French national network ARAMIS. This selection was realised by simulating the errors in radar rainfall measurement due to interactions of the radar beam with relief, and to the vertical variation of the radar reflectivity with altitude. Results show the interest of these simulations to optimise the radar location according to the objectives of radar coverage. Beyond these results, this paper highlights aspects interesting for hydrology: this type of simulation can be used to assess the radar measurement quality before initiating a quantitative exploitation of radar data, and before making a comparison or a combination with rain gauge data.     

堤防隐患探测实例分析

在堤防隐患探测中，采用地质雷达、高密度电法、电测深法、地震折射波法等综合物探技术，并结合少量的土工试验资料，提高了物探成果的可靠性和实用性，取得了良好的应用效果．为堤防隐患探测提供了新的思路。