中国西部地区利用烈度数据估计地震动参数的方法

通过最近收集到的中国西部地区的6次地震的地震动参数和烈度数据,建立了该地区适用于贝叶斯方法的各烈度档P(I|GM)的经验分布。利用2011年发生的四川炉霍地震和新疆伽师地震资料验证了依据烈度数据用贝叶斯方法估算峰值加速度的可行性。研究结果还表明,用贝叶斯方法估计的参数精度与选择的先验概率(衰减关系)显著相关。针对这2次地震,用各烈度档地震动参数的均值法、地震动衰减关系法及贝叶斯法3种方法估算的峰值加速度值与峰值加速度观测值之间的均方根比较表明,用贝叶斯方法估算的参数精度优于用另2种方法所获结果。     

Development of an operational rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis

Abstract

Automatic raingauge data often serve as an important input to hydrological and weather warning operations. They are not only fundamental in quantitative rainfall analysis, but also act as the ground truth in warning operation and forecast validation. Quality control is required before the data can be used quantitatively due to systematic and random errors. Extremely large random errors and unreasonably small or false zero values can hamper effective monitoring of heavy rain. Yet both are difficult to detect in real-time by objective means. In an attempt to address these problems, a rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis was developed. The important threshold values required in the data quality control of 60-min raingauge rainfall were determined from a detailed analysis of the distributions of rainfall residuals defined as the arithmetic difference and the logarithm of the ratio between a raingauge measurement and its co-kriging estimate. The scheme has been developed and is in real-time use in Hong Kong, a coastal city of about 1100 km² area with more than 150 raingauges installed. Geographically, it is located in the subtropics and dominated by heavy convective rainfall in the summer. As a basis of the quality-control scheme, the co-kriging rainfall analysis was shown through a verification exercise to be superior to those obtained by the Barnes analysis and ordinary kriging of raingauge data. The performance of the quality-control algorithm was assessed using selected cases and controlled tests, and was found to be satisfactory, with a high error detection rate for the two targeted types of error. Limitations and operational issues identified during a real-time trial of the quality-control scheme are also discussed.

Citation Yeung, H.Y., Man, C., Chan, S.T., and Seed, A., 2014. Development of an operational rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1285–1299. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.839873     

北京地区主要活断层活动参数的重力反演

采用1991~1999年首都圈重力测网的重力测量资料,根据地质调查结果确定断层初始运动模型,利用稳健—贝叶斯最小二乘方法反演北京地区4条活断层的活动参数(走滑、倾滑、引张)。反演结果表明:在1991~1999年间,北京地区活断层的运动性质均以走滑和垂直升降为主,兼有伸展特征,但运动速率都不大,约为2 mm/a。北京地区北西走向断层反演的运动特征为左旋走滑正断层,北东走向断层反演的运动特征为右旋走滑正断层。     

基于最小二乘的岩石频谱参数反演初始值选取的讨论

频谱激电法作为地球物理勘探的有效手段,在寻找激电异常体以及探寻深部矿产方面有重大贡献,岩石频谱参数的确定是实现该方法的重要步骤。在利用最小二乘法对复电阻率、相位参数进行反演时,各频谱参数初始值选取不同对反演效果影响较大,选取不好甚至会发散。在各频谱参数所属范围内采用随机选取初始值的方法进行反演,对复电阻率幅值曲线以及相位曲线拟合效果较好,不易陷入局部极小值的特点,能克服了较为盲目选取初始值而对结果带来的不良影响。     

有流体参与作用下的震源参数特征——以广西凌云凤山震群、龙滩库区地震为例

对广西暴雨诱发的地震、水库地震及天然地震的地震波数字频谱参数特征进行分析;计算凌云凤山震群、2007—2013年广西桂东南地区天然地震及龙滩库区ML≥2.5级地震波形资料,获得凌云凤山震群、桂东南天然地震、龙滩库区地震震源参数。研究表明：凌云凤山震群和龙滩库区地震的应力降、震源尺度和拐角频率在数值范围、平均值都基本相同;它们的应力降和拐角频率明显小于桂东南地区地震,其中应力降约小1个量级;而它们的震源尺度明显大于同震级的桂东南地区地震。这些特征显示出数字地震波频谱分析也可较好地反映凌云凤山震群由暴雨诱发所致的成因。     

天津局地暴雨特征及落区预报分析

利用常规观测资料分析2009-2011年天津地区33次局地暴雨天气过程的影响系统。对局地暴雨天气发生前的大气环境物理参数进行统计,对比不同影响系统下预报着眼点的差异。结果表明：天津局地暴雨主要发生在蒙古冷涡、东北冷涡、高空槽前以及高空槽后四种天气系统的影响下。蒙古冷涡系统下应以整层良好的水汽和涡旋系统东南象限深厚的辐合上升运动为着眼点;而东北冷涡系统下则需关注低层水汽条件充沛和中层强烈的辐合抬升;高空槽系统下在动力、水汽以及能量条件配合较为均衡;而槽后型系统影响下若发生局地暴雨,各种强对流参数特征则最为显著。在此基础上,通过典型局地暴雨过程对强降水落区进行诊断表明,天津构造加密探空由于充分考虑了近地面的温湿风特征,计算所得的可降水量、对流有效位能以及地面至3km高度的垂直风切变对局地暴雨落区具有良好的指示性。同时,个例研究也表明TJ-WRF对局地暴雨天气过程有较好的预报能力,综合应用模式物理量结果能较好地预报局地暴雨落区。     

Extended consecutive modal pushover procedure for estimating seismic responses of one-way asymmetric plan tall buildings considering soil-structure interaction

Performance based design becomes an effective method for estimating seismic demands of buildings. In asymmetric plan tall building the effects of higher modes and torsion are crucial. The consecutive modal pushover (CMP) procedure is one of the procedures that consider these effects. Also in previous studies the influence of soil-structure interaction (SSI) in pushover analysis is ignored. In this paper the CMP procedure is modified for one-way asymmetric plan mid and high-rise buildings considering SSI. The extended CMP (ECMP) procedure is proposed in order to overcome some limitations of the CMP procedure. In this regard, 10, 15 and 20 story buildings with asymmetric plan are studied considering SSI assuming three different soil conditions. Using nonlinear response history analysis under a set of bidirectional ground motion; the exact responses of these buildings are calculated. Then the ECMP procedure is evaluated by comparing the results of this procedure with nonlinear time history results as an exact solution as well as the modal pushover analysis procedure and FEMA 356 load patterns. The results demonstrate the accuracy of the ECMP procedure.     

The four dimensional variational data assimilation with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint (Tikh-4D-Var) and its preliminary application on typhoon initialization

Traditional variational data assimilation (VDA) with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of “four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint (Tikh-4D-Var)” is proposed by imposing different regularization parameters for different observations. Meanwhile, a new multiple regularization parameters selection method, which is suitable for actual high-dimensional data assimilation system, is proposed based on the posterior information of 4D-Var system. Compared with the traditional single regularization parameter selection method, computation of the proposed multiple regularization parameters selection method is smaller. Based on WRF3.3.1 4D-Var data assimilation system, initialization and simulation of typhoon Chaba (2010) with the new Tikh-4D-Var method are compared with its counterpart 4D-Var to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method. Results show that the new Tikh-4D-Var method can accelerate the convergence with less iterations. Moreover, compared with 4D-Var method, the typhoon track, intensity (including center surface pressure and maximum wind speed) and structure prediction are obviously improved with Tikh-4D-Var method for 72-h prediction. In addition, the accuracy of the observation error variances can be reflected by the multiple regularization parameters.     

吉林台网测震台站监测效能评估

由于种种原因,台站地震计的固有周期、阻尼、灵敏度、观测动态范围等参数和台基噪声在运行的过程中会发生变化。本文用阶跃标定和计算观测动态范围、台基噪声功率谱的方法,得到吉林测震台网各台站地震计参数和台基噪声的变化情况,掌握吉林测震台网各台站的监测能力,为以后吉林测震台网的建设和发展提出建议。     

不同遗址土的热物理参数研究

为了研究干密度、含水率和NaCl含量对遗址土热劣化的影响,采用Hot Disk热常数分析仪对良渚遗址、交河故城遗址和通古斯巴西古城遗址的遗址土重塑样进行了热物理参数的测试,分别确定了遗址土的导热系数、热扩散系数和体积比热随干密度和含水率的变化关系。对通古斯巴西古城遗址重塑样掺入了不同含量的NaCl,研究了含盐量对遗址土重塑样导热系数的影响。结果表明,当含水率与干密度增加时,3种遗址土的导热系数均呈线性增长,热扩散系数和体积比热也随着含水率与干密度的增加而增大;相同条件下3种遗址土的热物理参数存在差异,良渚遗址的较大,交河遗址的较小,通古斯巴西古城的居中总体上与土中SiO2含量成正相关关系。当干密度与含水率一定时, 掺入NaCl增加了遗址土的导热系数。