A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON INTENSITY CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

55-year (1949 - 2003) data sets are used to study the statistical characteristics in intensity change of the tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific. According to the mathematical meaning of average value and standard deviation, the abruptly intensifying, gradually intensifying, stable intensity, gradually weakening and abruptly weakening of TC intensity are defined and the statistical characteristics, such as inter-decadal variation, inter-annual variation, inter-monthly variation, and regional distribution, etc. are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) From 1949 to 2003, there were 1886 TCs, averaging at 34.29 TCs per year. After 1995, the number of TCs dropped dramatically with less than 30 per year. 3.56% of the total were abruptly intensifying samples, and 3.31% were weakening samples. (2) For the annual mean, all but the stable group tend to decrease with the shift of decades as far as the overall change of the 6-h isallobaric process is concerned. (3) The abruptly intensifying TC seldom occurs over mid- and high-latitude area (north of 30°N) and low-latitude area and sometimes occurs around the islands and continent. Basically there is no gradually intensifying of TC over mid- and high- latitude area (north of 30°N and west of 125°E), in offshore Chinese waters. The gradually weakening and abruptly weakening TCs usually occur offshore China, west of 125 °E, but seldom over low-latitude area (0 - 5°N).     

近12年北京暖季对流天气的气候特征

对北京地区1994～2005年暖季(5～9月)雷暴、冰雹、暴雨和大风等各种对流天气进行了气候统计和分析。统计结果表明:北京地区暖季发生对流的概率很高,按日数统计的气候概率达47.77%,有雷暴相伴的强对流天气大风、暴雨和冰雹气候概率分别为27.29%、10.84%和6.29%。另外,北京地区对流天气一般可连续出现3 d,强对流天气也可连续出现2 d。北京地区对流季节长达4个月,其中6、7、8月为主要的对流月,这三个月中雷暴发生的气候概率均超过50%。暴雨多发季节为7月中旬到8月上旬。冰雹集中于6月中、下旬。在对流天气的地理分布上,北京西北部、东北部山区及西南部山区多对流天气,中心区和东南部平原地区对流天气较少。暴雨呈西南-东北方向带状分布,东北部山区、中部和东南部平原地区多发生暴雨,而西北部和西南部山区很少发生暴雨。山区冰雹明显多于平原。西北部和东北部山区大风偏多,西南部霞云岭大风最少。暴雨有明显的夜发性,即夜间次数多,降水量更大。冰雹集中发生在午后到傍晚,占冰雹总站次的76.72%。夜间发生冰雹的概率非常小,上午到中午也不多。     

Turbulence Statistics Inside and Over Forest: Influence on Footprint Prediction

Observations of wind statistics within and above a Scots pine forest are comparedwith those predicted from an analytical second-order closure model. The roughnesssublayer (RSL) effects, and the influence of stability on similarity functions, arestudied using observations. The commonly accepted forms of similarity functionsdescribe the influence of diabatic effects above the RSL well. According to earlierstudies they are expected also to apply within the RSL. As an exception, the averagewind speed normalised with friction velocity was found to be invariant with stabilityclose to the canopy top under unstable conditions. Lagrangian stochastic trajectorysimulations were used to evaluate the influence of canopy turbulence profiles onfootprint prediction. The main uncertainty was found to arise from parameterisationof the random forcing term in the Lagrangian velocity equation. The influence ofdiabatic conditions was studied, and it was found that thermal stability affectssignificantly the footprint function above the forest canopy, but significantuncertainty exists because of uncertainties in the formulation of stability functions.     

MOTION AND INTENSITY AND IMPACT CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING THE LIAODONG PENINSULA

Conventional data and the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones (TC) data from 1971 to 2000 are used to study the climate and disaster features of TC affecting the Liaodong Peninsula. Results indicate that interannual change of TC activities is obvious. Different sources of TC have different impacts on the area of interest. Intensity and moving speed of TC vary substantially in the progress of northward movement. Besides, tracks and damage distributions of TC are quite different.     

近50年浙江省旱、涝气候变化及特征

用1951－1999年资料详细研究了浙江省的年、季的旱、涝气候变化特征。主要结果：浙江省夏季降水量表现出稳定的增加，其他季节（特别是秋季）的降水有不同程度的减少。每年在浙江省出现大范围旱（或涝）的可能性很大（约80％）。1985年以后浙江每年都要发生大范围的季节性的旱涝。浙江省年、季降水量旱涝有年代际变化。旱、涝发生的气候频率已经有了明显的变化，特别是夏季。奇异谱分析与最大熵谱分析的结果表明夏季、秋季与年的降水量有明显的长期趋势变化，它们还有10年左右的周期，而冬季降水的2年周期振荡特别明显。     

华南前汛期降水异常及其环流特征分析

利用国家气候中心整编的中国160站的月平均降水资料和美国NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,分析华南前汛期降水的异常及其环流特征。文中取“九五”重中之重项目执行组指出的华南地区的16站来代表华南地区,侧重分析了华南前汛期降水异常的年际、年代际变化特征及华南前汛期多、少雨年同期的环流特征。研究发现：华南地区降水的季节分布呈现双峰型,两个峰值分别在6月和8月。华南前汛期近50年的总的降水趋势变化不明显。1950年代前期和1960年代中期—1980年代中为相对多雨期,而1950年代中期—1960年代中期以及1980年代中期—1990年代初为相对少雨期,1990年代为正常波动期。华南前汛期降水存在3 a、5 a、7 a、14 a的周期。在分析华南前汛期多、少雨年大气环流场的特征时发现：华南前汛期多雨年时南亚高压和副高都偏弱,华南地区低层的水汽通量辐合加强,而且低空辐合,高空辐散,气流上升运动加强,容易形成降水;而少雨年的情况恰恰相反。     

面向问题的空间应用表达与实现

讨论空间应用的一种面向问题的表达方法与实现机制。为解决空间应用的描述问题,在建立时空一体化空间数据模型基础上,定义了对SQL进行扩展的时空复合查询语言,实现了对空间应用问题的非过程化描述;研究复杂空间应用的表达问题,讨论时空复合查询语言的限制,并在语言中引入流机制,通过空间应用问题的组合实现更为复杂的空间应用,并支持空间数据分布式计算;最后给出若干空间应用实例及其面向问题的表达。     

基于珠海实证的城市旅游增长极限分析框架

城市旅游是城市的一个开放、高流动的子系统,在一定时期内是相对稳定,有增长极限的。城市旅游增长极限受到供需极限影响,当旅游需求超过供给时,出现过度旅游;而当供给超过需求,就会导致过度旅游化。城市旅游需求增长极限呈现阶梯式,只有当影响城市旅游需求增长的长期因素发生持续重大变化时,城市旅游需求增长才可能突破原有的极限,进入一个新的阶段。城市旅游需求极限规定了城市旅游供给极限,决定了城市在一定时期内适合开发的景区、酒店、餐饮、购物等旅游设施规模。本文基于珠海的实证分析表明,过去十几年,由于旅游供需两方面影响因素缺乏持续重大的变化,城市功能和地位、城市主题和特色等因素相对稳定,加之受到区域其他城市的激烈竞争,珠海中高端旅游需求相对稳定,星级酒店等中高端旅游产品面临增长极限。此时,新增旅游景区和星级酒店并不会带来过夜旅游需求的实质增长,反而可能加剧现阶段旅游供需的失衡,造成过度旅游化。本文也讨论了超越旅游极限的条件以及旅游增长与旅游发展的关系,并进一步建议了旅游统计的改革举措。     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Geographic Software Reviewed in this article: LIFE TABLES and the LESLIE MATRIX. CONDUIT MENTMAP2 . Lawrence W. Carstensen Jr . PC-MATLAB , Version 1.0. The Math Works, Inc. QUICKMAP , version 1.0. Sammamish Data Systems, Inc. SYSTAT: THE SYSTEM FOR STATISTICS , Version 2.1, Systat Inc. USA DISPLAY . Instant Tecall     

GIS and remote sensing integration for environmental applications

Abstract

The combined use of remotely-sensed images and vector GIS data has received considerable interest in recent years. This review article discusses the historical move towards closer integration of remote sensing and GIS technologies and the requirements of integrated software systems to enable remotely-sensed data to be combined with vector datasets for maximum effect. The benefits of integration to users of both GIS and remote sensing for environmental applications are reviewed and some thoughts are given on terminology and future directions in this field.