Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.     

Statistical estimation of a shock center: Slate Islands astrobleme

Statistical models are proposed for the distribution of directions in three dimensions that are thought to point toward a single source. These models are based on the Fisher distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is used to obtain an estimate of position of the source and to provide corre-sponding confidence regions. When applied to shatter cone data from the Slate Islands, northern Lake Superior, the method yields estimates comparable with those obtained by Stesky and Halls (1982), as well as statistically valid confidence regions.     

矿山淹井中水位、水量的快速估算和预报

本文用数理统计方法,快速估算和预报矿山淹井中水住、最高水位,矿井水涌量、涌入矿区的总水量和需要排出水量。用简单易行的反推法确定淹井的涌水量,并推导出计算式,以供使用。该方法在某矿淹井中使用,效果良好。     

多元统计在大洋玄武岩同位素端元识别中的应用

应用因子分析的方差最大旋转和非线性映射方法对海洋玄武岩Sr、Nd、Pb同位素数据在多维空间中的数据结构进行了分析。研究表明这些数据在多维空间中呈五角形结构,并对应5个地幔端元:大西洋中脊玄武岩(DMM),圣埃伦那(HIMU),鲸岛(EMI),萨摩亚岛(EMII)和DS(EMIII).其中DS(EMIII)是本文新识别出来的一个地幔端元,它可能是重新进入地幔的具有较高古老放射成因Pb的下地壳物质。     

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网的建立与施测前后共历经４年方始完成，总控制面积约１７７．６平方公里。本文主要讨论了该网分区布设情况及总体平差的原理与方法，并对成果进行了统计分析。经过整体平差的结果可以满足１：１００００测图的需要。该网也是我国东南极中山站地区的基础大地控制网     

方差的边缘极大似然估计

测量平差问题中,方差估计理论是复杂的。本文基于概括模型,组成自由项f(极大似然估计 MLE)的密度函数和改正数向量 V的线性函数(边缘极大似然估计 MMLE)的密度函数,详细推导了函数模型与随机模型中,未知参数 X与σ_0~2 的似然估计公式,分析了基于两种密度函数所得σ_0~2的似然估计存在差异的真正原因,并对两种方法所得的σ_0~2和X 的统计性质进行了讨论。指出边缘极大似然估计,σ_0~2 的具有良好的统计性质,可改善极大似然估计σ_0~2 的不定性(有偏);并且对任一平差模型的边缘极大似然估计,σ_0~2 无偏、有效的统计性质是一致的。     

A factor analytic approach to the identification of geomorphic processes from soil particle size characteristics

Q-mode factor analysis of soil particle size data is used to identify the three dominant geomorphic processes responsible for the spatial variability of particle size in a catchment on the basaltic Darling Downs landsurface. Three factors are shown to account for 95 per cent of the textural variability of a suite of transported and sedentary materials. The spatial characteristics of groups of samples associated with the three factors suggests that the three factors are associated with suspended sediment transport and deposition, weathering, and bedload transport and deposition respectively. These interpretations are supported by the detailed graphical analysis of the cumulative particle size curves. The spatially variable influence of the three factors and related processes is given by their respective factor loadings which are mappable for the surface layer materials.     

Effect of agricultural land use on the chemistry of groundwater from basaltic aquifers, Jeju Island, South Korea

Geochemical processes were identified as controlling factors of groundwater chemistry, including chemical weathering, salinization from seawater and dry sea-salt deposition, nitrate contamination, and rainfall recharge. These geochemical processes were identified using principal component analysis of major element chemistry of groundwater from basaltic aquifers in Jeju Island, South Korea, a volcanic island with intense agricultural activities. The contribution of the geochemical processes to groundwater chemistry was quantified by a simple mass-balance approach. The geochemical effects due to seawater were considered based on Cl contributions, whereas the effects due to natural chemical weathering were based on alkalinity. Nitrogenous fertilizers, and especially the associated nitrification processes, appear to significantly affect groundwater chemistry. A strong correlation was observed between Na, Mg, Ca, SO₄ and Cl, and nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Correspondingly, the total major cations, Cl, and SO₄ in groundwater were assessed to estimate relative effect of N-fertilizer use on groundwater chemistry. Cl originates more from nitrate sources than from seawater, whereas SO₄ originates mostly from rainwater. N-fertilizer use has shown the greatest effect on groundwater chemistry, particularly when nitrate concentrations exceed 6–7 mg/L NO₃–N. Nitrate contamination significantly affects groundwater quality and 18% of groundwater samples have contamination-dominated chemistry.