基于最大发展潜力值的元胞自动机城市扩张模型

在城镇化发展水平及土地开发评价的基础上,评价待扩张区域土地转变潜力分值,基于最大转变潜力分值,提出一种有别于传统元胞自动机模拟城市扩张的新方法。该方法与传统元胞自动机模拟城市扩张相比在迭代方式上存在不同,它克服了传统元胞自动机因阈值设置不同而导致结果不确定的难题。分别将该方法与传统元胞自动机模型应用于武汉主城区,模拟了其2003年到2013年的城市扩张情况,最后,将模拟结果与实际土地利用现状图进行对比发现改进后的新方法在模拟精度上大大提高。     

2000～2015年会理县地表覆盖变化监测

以LandSat多时相影像为数据源,采用基于规则的面向对象分类方法,监测会理县2000～ 2015年地表覆盖变化.结合1∶50 000 DEM数据,分析了会理县地表覆盖构成与转移、变化动态度及潜在退耕地情况.监测分析结论能为会理县加强空间管制、促进土地资源集约利用、指导生态文明建设等提供决策信息支撑.     

Short-lived polyphase deformation during crustal thickening and exhumation of a collisional orogen (Ribeira Belt,Brazil)

The Ribeira Belt (Brazil) is a Neoproterozoic collisional-related feature that was located in a south-central position in West Gondwana. We present quantitative data on finite strain, flow vorticity and deformation temperatures for the Curitiba Terrane, a major segment of the southern Ribeira Belt. Six deformation phases (D₁-D₆) related with crustal thickening and exhumation were recognized. D₁ and D₂-related microstructures are preserved exclusively within porphyroblasts, in part grown during stages of high-pressure (∼9–12 kbar) isobaric heating after crustal thickening. D₃ phase was active from peak metamorphism attained in contrasting crustal levels (810–400 °C), to the early stage of exhumation (500–400 °C), as indicated by petrological, microstructural and quartz c-axis fabric evidence. Kinematic vorticity results indicate that the SL₃ mylonitic fabric resulted from a simple shear-dominated deformation related with westward thrusting. North-verging overturned D₄ folds with E-W-trending subhorizontal axes derived from a pure shear-dominated deformation. Regional D₅ open folds with subvertical axes and NNE-SSW-trending traces were produced by indentation tectonics. D₆ phase comprises retrograde orogen-parallel transcurrent shear zones related with scape tectonics. Geochronological data indicate that D₃-D₆ phases occurred between 584 and 580 Ma, suggesting a fast exhumation rate of ∼8 mm/year for the deepest rocks from the southern Ribeira Belt.     

内蒙古达茂旗塔林宫地区找矿前景分析

内蒙古达茂旗塔林宫地区位于华北板块北缘与西伯利亚板块南缘的结合带,天山―兴蒙造山系之温都尔庙俯冲增生杂岩带(内蒙古自治区地质矿产局. 1991),白乃庙―哈达庙铜、金、萤石成矿带上(邵和明,张履桥. 2001) 。区域上矿产资源较为丰富,金属矿产主要有铁、稀土、金、铜等,非金属矿产主要有萤石、石灰岩、石英岩等,比较重要的矿床有白云鄂博钒钛稀土矿、查干哈达庙铜矿、乌花敖包金矿、赛乌苏金矿、白乃庙铜金矿、石宝铁矿等。     

阿拉善右旗石窝子―三个井地区找矿潜力分析

内蒙古阿拉善右旗石窝子―三个井地区位于华北板块西北缘与塔里木板块东北缘的结合部位,北部紧邻西伯利亚板块(郝立波等, 2004)。三级成矿带属于朱拉扎嘎―甲生盘元古代、古生代金、铅、锌、硫、铁、铜、铂、镍成矿带（Ⅲ12）,四级成矿带属于朱拉扎嘎金成矿带（Ⅳ123）(内蒙古自治区地质矿产局, 1991)。区域上已发现的矿种主要有煤、盐湖、芒硝、铁、金、磷、石灰岩、石膏、膨润土、滑石、饰面花岗岩等,代表性矿床有叠布斯格、卡休他他铁矿,朱拉扎嘎金矿,脑木洪铜多金属矿等。     

The Upstream “Strong Signals” of the Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau during a Heavy Rainfall Event in the Yangtze River Basin

A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) during July11–13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream "strong signals" of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July(temporal resolution: 6 hours). By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream "strong signals" related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TP. The "convergence zone" of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this "convergence zone" coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence/convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream "strong signals" are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.     

The impact of deformation on vortex development in a baroclinic moist atmosphere

A mathematical relation between deformation and vertical vorticity tendency is built by introducing the frontogenesis function and the complete vertical vorticity equation, which is derived by virtue of moist potential vorticity. From the mathematical relation, it is shown that properly configured atmospheric conditions can make deformation exert a positive contribution to vortex development at rates comparable to other favorable factors. The effect of deformation on vortex development is not only related to the deformation itself, but also depends on the current thermodynamic and dynamic structures of the atmosphere, such as the convective stability, moist baroclinicity and vertical wind shear(or horizontal vorticity). A diagnostic study of a heavy-rainfall case that occurred during 20–22 July 2012 shows that deformation has the most remarkable effect on the increase in vertical vorticity during the rapid development stage of the low vortex during its whole life cycle. This feature is mainly due to the existence of an approximate neutral layer(about 700 h Pa) in the atmosphere where the convective stability tends to be zero. The neutral layer makes the effect of deformation on the vertical vorticity increase significantly during the vortex development stage, and thus drives the vertical vorticity to increase.     

哈密地区空中水汽及增水潜力分析

采用哈密地区6站1975—2014年逐日地面水汽压和降水量资料,计算了哈密各站的大气可降水量、有效空中水资源量、自然降水产出率和人工增水潜力值,并分析了各量的时空分布特征。结果表明:哈密地区年平均整层大气可降水量为2560~4327 mm,年均有效空中水资源量约为232~828 mm,占整层大气可降水量的1/4~1/10;年均自然降水产出率在9%~28%,自然降水产出率与降水量成正比关系。哈密地区的年人工增水潜力理论计算值在844~2399 mm之间,潜力值在夏季最大,巴里坤和伊吾明显多于其它区域。     

1999年北京持续高温天气过程的诊断分析

利用北京观象台观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对1999年6月24日至7月2日北京一次持续性高温天气的演变和发展过程及非绝热加热作用对系统的影响进行诊断分析,结果表明：在此次高温天气发生前,欧亚大陆中高纬度环流经向度很大,欧洲北部和贝加尔湖以南为高压脊控制,中亚和我国东北地区则处于低压槽内。贝加尔湖南部的高压脊纬向延伸范围较广,在东移过程中长时间影响北京。随着贝加尔湖以南的高压脊逐渐东移,北京上空下沉增温与非绝热加热作用有所增强,北京逐渐受到高温天气影响。在高温天气发生的后半阶段,我国东北的低压槽入海后在120130°E附近维持并发展,槽前非绝热加热率很大。从垂直方向来看,加热率在500 hPa以下随高度迅速增加,根据全型涡度方程,强烈的非绝热加热率垂直分布不均作为一个明显的涡度源区,对入海低压槽的稳定维持有显著的作用。而入海低压槽的稳定维持,又阻碍了华北高压脊的东移,使其在北京地区长时间稳定少动,为北京带来多日的持续性高温天气。     

中国东部城市群发展对南海夏季风爆发影响的模拟研究

本文利用NCAR开发的CAM5.1(Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1)模式,针对我国东部大规模城市下垫面发展对南海夏季风爆发的影响进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明我国东部大规模城市群发展可能使得南海夏季风提前1候爆发;机理分析表明:在南海夏季风爆发之前,中国东部城市群发展引起的陆面增温,使得南海及其附近地区南北温差提前逆转、中国东部区域海平面气压降低,导致中南半岛到南海地区西南气流加强,中南半岛到南海地区降水增加,而凝结潜热垂直变化强迫出的异常环流,促进了南亚高压的加强及提前北跳,相伴随的高层抽吸作用有助于季风对流的建立和西太平洋副高的减弱东撤,从而形成了有利于南海夏季风爆发的高低层环流条件,导致南海夏季风提前爆发。另外,观测结果表明1993年之后南海夏季风爆发的日期相对上一个年代明显提前约2候,城市化快速发展阶段与南海夏季风爆发的年代际变化存在时间段的吻合,表明城市下垫面发展可能是南海夏季风提前爆发的原因之一。