The extent of desertification on Saudi Arabia

Desertification is the process that turns productive deserts into non-productive deserts as a result of poor land-management. Desertification reduces the ability of land to support life, affecting wild species, domestic animals, agricultural crops and humans. The reduction in plant cover that accompanies desertification leads to accelerated soil erosion by wind and water. South Africa is losing approximately 300–400 million tons of topsoil every year. As vegetation cover and soil layer are reduced, rain fall impact and run-off increases. This paper discusses the extent of desertification, its potential threat to sustained irrigated agriculture and possible measures adopted to control ongoing desertification processes to minimize the loss of agricultural productivity in an arid country such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

沉积物物源定量识别的非线性规划模型——以东海陆架北部表层沉积物物源识别为例

依据“质量守衡”原理和沉积物物源难以穷尽的认识 ,提出了沉积物物源定量识别的非线性规划数学模型。利用该模型实现了东海陆架北部表层沉积物物源的定量计算 ,阐明了长江、黄河入海物质的大致分布特征。长江沉积物主要分布于 32°N以南、台湾暖流以西的海域 ,黄河沉积物主要分布于 32°N以北、台湾暖流以东的海域。长江、黄河两类沉积物的这种分布格局与本海域的流系分布相吻合。     

A multiscaling‐based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation

Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.     

Mapping of climatic parameters under climate change impacts in Iran

ABSTRACT

This research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of climate change effects on temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over the country of Iran for the time periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099, and under scenarios A2 and B2. After preparation of measured temperature and precipitation data and calculation of potential evapotranspiration for the base time period of 1960–1990 for 46 meteorological stations (with a nationwide distribution), initial zoning of these three parameters over the country was attempted. Maximum and minimum temperatures and values of precipitation were obtained from the HadCM3 model under scenarios A2 and B2 for the three time periods, and these data were downscaled. Corresponding maps were prepared for the three parameters in the three time periods, and spatial and temporal variations of these climatic parameters under scenarios A2 and B2 were extracted and interpreted. Results showed that the highest increase in temperature would occur in western parts of the country, but the highest increase of potential evapotranspiration would occur in the central region of Iran. However, precipitation would vary temporally and spatially in different parts of the country depending on the scenario used and the time period selected.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned     

An approach for the determination of precipitation input for worst-case flood modelling

ABSTRACT

There is a lack of suitable methods for creating precipitation scenarios that can be used to realistically estimate peak discharges with very low probabilities. On the one hand, existing methods are methodically questionable when it comes to physical system boundaries. On the other hand, the spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation patterns as system input is limited. In response, this paper proposes a method of deriving spatio-temporal precipitation patterns and presents a step towards making methodically correct estimations of infrequent floods by using a worst-case approach. A Monte Carlo approach allows for the generation of a wide range of different spatio-temporal distributions of an extreme precipitation event that can be tested with a rainfall–runoff model that generates a hydrograph for each of these distributions. Out of these numerous hydrographs and their corresponding peak discharges, the physically plausible spatio-temporal distributions that lead to the highest peak discharges are identified and can eventually be used for further investigations.

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate editor E. Volpi     

Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation

Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of long‐term records (1892–2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre‐whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 °C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post‐1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Missing precipitation data estimation using optimal proximity metric-based imputation,nearest-neighbour classification and cluster-based interpolation methods

Abstract

New optimal proximity-based imputation, K-nearest neighbour (K-NN) classification and K-means clustering methods are proposed and developed for estimation of missing daily precipitation records. Mathematical programming formulations are developed to optimize the weighting, classification and clustering schemes used in these methods. Ten different binary and real-valued distance metrics are used as proximity measures. Two climatic regions, Kentucky and Florida, (temperate and tropical) in the USA, with different gauge density and network structure, are used as case studies to evaluate the new methods. A comprehensive exercise is undertaken to compare the performances of the new methods with those of several deterministic and stochastic spatial interpolation methods. The results from these comparisons indicate that the proposed methods performed better than existing methods. Use of optimal proximity metrics as weights, spatial clustering of observation sites and classification of precipitation data resulted in improvement of missing data estimates.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON THE PROCESS OF INTERGRANULAR PRESSURE SOLUTION OF PLAGIOCLASE GOUGE UNDER HIGH TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE: METHOD AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS

To understand the mechanism of lower-crust earthquake and slow slips, it is necessary to study the frictional properties of mafic rocks and their major rock-forming minerals. Previous studies have performed a series of experimental researches on gabbro, basalt and their major constituents. According to the results of previous experiments, frictional sliding of plagioclase under hydrothermal conditions(100~600℃)shows a property of velocity weakening, and the experimental results show that both the direct rate effect parameter(a)and the healing effect parameter(b)increase with temperature, a typical feature for thermally-activated processes. Velocity weakening means property of a shear band that has a stronger friction healing effect than the direct rate effect in the rate and state friction constitutive framework, and the healing effect(b value)in constitutive relation mainly reflects the increase in contact area with time under hydrothermal conditions, with some minor effect of structural changes. Since the microphysical mechanism of feldspar minerals at the contacts is mainly brittle cataclasis for temperatures below 600℃, the significant frictional healing effect in this case can only be explained by the mechanism of pressure solution. In order to determine if the dissolution process of plagioclase actually occurs on the laboratory time scale, we conducted hydrostatic experiments on plagioclase powder samples under hydrothermal conditions whereby frequent contact switch between particles seen in frictional sliding experiments can be avoided, making the observation on the dissolution sites possible. Experimental temperatures were 400℃ and 500℃, with confining pressure of 90~150MPa, pore pressure of 30MPa, with 2mm initial thickness of fault gouge. The mechanical data show that a creep process occurred in the plagioclase fault gouge in the experimental temperature and pressure range; and the microstructures of the experiment show that precipitation of new grains is prevalent as the product of pressure solution process between plagioclase particles. At the same time, it is observed that the contact points have an appearance similar to fused, fuzzy structure as signatures of dissolution. The results of our experiments provide a definite experimental evidence for the healing mechanism in friction of plagioclase and for the theoretical relation between unstable slip and the pressure solution process. The results of the experiments are summarized as follows: (1)Drainage rate of pore water in plagioclase gouge was high in the first few hours of experiment, but gradually decreases over time for both temperature and pressure series of experiments slowing down to a steady state. This feature indicates that there is a creep process that evolves inside the plagioclase gouge. In the temperature-series experiments, the drainage rate of the pore water in the plagioclase gouge at 400℃ is relatively low than the cases for higher temperatures. Thus, the applied temperature is positively correlated with the creep of plagioclase gouge. (2)Scanning electron microscopy(SEM)observations of the experimentally deformed samples were performed on thin sections cut along the sample axis. Firstly, from the images of microstructure, it was found that the degree of particle fracture became more significant at a higher effective pressure, with smaller pore volume between particles. In the temperature-series experiments it was found that the degree of compaction of plagioclase gouge increased with increasing temperature. Precipitation of plagioclase grains in layered structures was generally observed in high-magnification images, indicating the presence of pressure solution processes. Contact points were also found to be in a state of ambiguity that seems to be a fused morphology, but the details of the structure remain to be determined by further observations. The above results indicate that the pressure solution process of plagioclase particles can occur on a typical laboratory time scale, and the results of this study provide robust experimental evidences for the theory that links between pressure solution and the mechanism of frictional healing and unstable slips for plagioclase.     

积雪在El Niño影响东亚夏季气候异常中的作用

本文利用1948-2010年Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS）NOAH陆面模式资料、GPCC月平均降水资料和NCAR/NCEP全球月平均再分析资料,采用滤波、距平合成和线性相关等方法,分析了El Niño成熟位相冬季欧亚大陆积雪异常的分布特征,研究了关键区积雪融化对后期春、夏季土壤湿度、土壤温度以及大气环流与降水的影响,揭示了El Niño事件通过关键区积雪储存其强迫信号并影响东亚夏季气候异常的机制和过程.主要结论如下：El Niño成熟阶段冬季伊朗高原、巴尔喀什湖东北部和青藏高原南麓区域是雪深异常的三个关键区,这些区域的雪深、雪融和土壤湿度有明显的正相关;这三个关键区雪深异常通过春季融雪将冬季El Niño信号传递给春、夏季局地土壤湿度,通过减少感热通量和增加潜热通量对大气环流产生影响;春末夏初伊朗高原土壤湿度异常对东亚夏季气候异常的影响最大,其引起的降水异常与El Niño次年夏季降水异常分布基本一致,春夏季青藏高原南麓和巴尔喀什湖附近土壤湿度也都明显增加,均会对中国华北降水增加有显著正贡献.总之,在利用El Niño事件研究和预测东亚夏季气候异常时,还应考虑关键区雪深异常对El Niño信号的存储和调制作用.