0907号热带风暴“天鹅”登陆后异常路径和陆上维持机制的诊断分析

2009年第7号热带风暴"天鹅"在广东省台山沿海登陆,登陆后在粤西上空长时间停留、强度维持,后期路径异常,针对这几方面在预报上的难点进行分析。结果表明:热带气旋在陆上长时间维持与低空水汽通道的连结,高空弱的风场切变有关;热带风暴后期路径第一次西南转向是由于周围环境流场出现变化转向西南的,第二次路径再次产生转向,是受到离它较近的台风"莫拉克"的牵引作用,另外,925 hPa附近θse的高值区或高能轴也可意示"天鹅"的趋向。     

考虑极端天气时港珠澳大桥人工岛设计波浪要素——I.数值模拟中不利台风路径选取

假想台风下的波浪数值模拟是跨海桥隧工程风险评价的重要内容。风场的生成方法与不利路径的选择对于波浪模拟结果有极大影响。研究检验了在单一假想台风风场下进行波浪模拟的合理性,分析了台风路径对于工程区不同方向波浪影响的差异。通过构建珠江口台风浪数学模型,对采用风圈半径方法筛选出的104场台风路径,按300年一遇强度进行了蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明,对西人工岛处波浪场有重大影响的不利台风路径处于珠江口100km范围内。由此确定了体现不同特征的7条不利台风路径,为进一步研究极端天气条件下珠江口台风浪过程提供基础。研究成果为沿海河口地区易受台风影响的大型工程波浪要素分析提供方法支撑。     

一种基于随钻VSP地震地质导向的钻井轨迹高效优化方法及其应用

塔里木盆地发现多个奥陶系碳酸盐岩缝洞型油气田,随着开发的不断推进,中小型储集规模的缝洞体已经成为产能建设的主力目标。勘探开发过程中,由于受到复杂地层速度的影响,缝洞体系偏移成像、归位存在一定误差,常导致钻井的失利。笔者提出一种基于随钻VSP地震地质导向的钻井轨迹高效优化方法,首先应用VSP速度与基于三角网格的新构造模型高效率地校正原始地震偏移速度场,再联合修正后的各向异性参数场对地震数据进行快速偏移成像。其次,对新数据的全层系地层的构造特征再分析,预测优质储层的发育位置,确定最终靶点。最后,根据工程、地质情况,采用最为经济的优化设计钻井轨迹,钻进入靶。应用表明,该技术在大沙漠腹地塔中地区应用取得了较好的效果,地震资料成像品质得到提升。调整轨迹后的储层钻遇率和钻完井直投率分别提升16%和13.2%,有效地促进了油田实施低成本效益开发方案。     

基于地震数据构造曲率属性预测裂缝

为了有效预测岩层裂缝发育与分布,利用新疆准噶尔盆地南缘霍尔果斯背斜在纵弯变形作用下地震数据构造曲率属性进行了分析,并在此基础上进行了裂缝预测。具体方法是:利用petrel软件分析研究区的地震数据,追踪主要层面和断层并提取目标层面曲率和建立构造模型;考虑层面曲率对裂缝预测的局限性,通过“蚂蚁追踪”进一步提取目标层三维曲率属性而提取裂缝分布规律,将提取的裂缝与构造模型相结合。实例表明,上述方法可以简单、高效、全面地预测裂缝发育与分布,因此具有较强的实用性。     

Thermal History since the Paleozoic in the Eastern Qaidam Basin,Northwest China

The Qaidam Basin is the one of the three major petroliferous basins in northeastern Tibetan Plateau, which has experienced multiphase superimposition and transformation. The study of thermal history not only plays an important role on revealing the tectonic origin of the Qaidam Basin and the forming mechanism and uplift history of the Tibetan Plateau,but also can provide scientific evidence for the assessment of oil and gas resources. This work used balanced cross-section technique and apatite fission track ages with modeling of fission track length distribution to infer that the eastern Qaidam Basin has experienced significant tectonic movement in the Early Jurassic movement(～200 Ma), which caused the carboniferous uplift and denudation, the geological movement in the Late Cretaceous, characterized by early stretching and late northeast-southwest extrusion; the Himalayan movement in multi-stage development in eastern Qaidam Basin, which can be divided into the early Himalayan movement(41.1–33.6 Ma) and the late Himalayan movement(9.6–7.1 Ma, 2.9–1.8 Ma), and large-scale orogeny caused pre-existing faults reactivated in late Himalayan movement. On the basis of burial history reconstruction, the thermal history of eastern Qaidam Basin was restored. The result shows that the thermal history in eastern Qaidam Basin shows slow cooling characteristics; the paleo-geothermal gradient of eastern Qaidam Basin was 38–41.5℃/km, with an average value of 39.0℃/km in the Late Paleozoic, 29–35.2℃/km, with an average value of 33.0℃/km in the Early Paleogene; the geothermal gradient of the Qaidam Basin increased in the Late Paleogene, which was similar to the present geothermal gradient in the Late Neogene. The characteristics of the tectono-thermal evolution since Paleozoic in the eastern Qaidam Basin are mainly controlled by magmatic thermal events in the study area.     

海洋表层温度对台风"蔷薇"路径和强度预测精度的影响

基于中尺度大气模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model),首先对2007年3次船舶辐射通量观测进行模拟,以检验WRF对长波和短波辐射通量的模拟能力,结果表明使用中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统环流模式POM(Princeton Ocean Model)模拟的高时空分辨率的海洋表层温度能够显著改进短波辐射通量的模拟,而对长波辐射通量模拟的改进不明显。然后,将业务化运行的中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统后报的逐时海洋表面温度(SST)作为WRF底边界条件,对2008年15号强台风"蔷薇"(Jangmi)过程进行了数值后报试验。结果表明,与使用NCEP/NCAR的SST试验后报的台风中心位置偏差相比,使用高时空分辨率的SST能够较为显著地改善"蔷薇"的路径模拟,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少11%,尤其在台风减弱阶段,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少37%。台风强度在台风发展的不同阶段对下垫面SST的变化敏感性不同。台风路径附近的海表面温度下降会导致海洋向大气输送的热量减少从而减弱台风强度。     

Denudation history of the Kiso Range,central Japan,and its tectonic implications: Constraints from low‐temperature thermochronology

Fission‐track (FT) and (U–Th–Sm)/He (He) analyses are used to constrain the denudation pattern and history of the Kiso Range, a Japanese fault‐block mountain range which has been uplifted since ca 0.8 Ma. We obtained nine zircon FT ages ranging 59.3–42.1 Ma, 18 apatite FT ages ranging 81.9–2.3 Ma, and 13 apatite He ages ranging 36.7–2.2 Ma. The apatite FT and He ages are divided into an older group comparable to the zircon FT age range and a younger group of <18 Ma. The younger ages are interpreted as a reflection of uplift of the Kiso Range because they were obtained only to the east of the Seinaiji‐touge Fault, and the event age estimated from apatite FT data is consistent with the timing of the onset of the Kiso Range uplift. On the basis of the distribution of the younger ages, we propose westward tilting uplift of the Kiso Range between the boundary fault of the Inadani Fault Zone and Seinaiji‐touge Fault, which implies a model of bedrock uplift that is intermediate between two existing models: a pop‐up model in which the Kiso Range is squeezed upward between the two faults and a tilted uplift model which assumes that the Kiso Range is uplifted and tilted to the west by the Inadani Fault Zone. The original land surface before the onset of uplift/denudation of the Kiso Range is estimated to have been uplifted to an elevation of 2700–4900 m. We estimated denudation rates at 1.3–4.0 mm/y and maximum bedrock uplift rates at 3.4–6.1 mm/y since ca 0.8 Ma. The Seinaiji‐touge fault is interpreted as a back thrust of the west‐dipping Inadani Fault Zone. The older group of apatite FT and He ages is interpreted to reflect long‐term peneplanation with a probable denudation rate of <0.1 mm/y.     

Mechanism for initial brows-like meso-scale vortex effects on tropical cyclone track

We used a two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic barotropic model simulation to study effects of an initial brows-like meso-scale vortex on tropical cyclone(TC) track.Our results show that the impact of each of the three foundational factors(the environmental current,the asymmetric structure and the asymmetric convection system) on TC track varies with time and the importance of each of the factors is different for the different TC motion time period.They show two kinds of the effects.One is a direct way.The asymmetric outer wind structure and the positive longitudinal wind speed averaged in radial-band(100-300) km in the period of(0-11) h are caused by the introduction of the initial brows-like meso-scale vortex,which results in TC track to turn to the north from the northwest directly.The other is an indirect influence.First,initial TC axisymmetric circulation becomes a non-axisymmetric circulation after the addition of the meso-scale vortex.The initial non-axisymmetric circulation experiences an axisymmetrizational process in the period of(0-11) h.Second,axisymmetrizationed TC horizontal size is enlarged after t=12 h.Third,both the TC asymmetric structure and the TC energy dispersion induced-anticyclone are intensified,which quickens the TC motion and results in the track to turn to the north indirectly.The TC motion is characterized by the unusual track under the direct and the indirect effect.The formation of the unusual track should be attributed to the common effects of three factors,including the environmental flow,the TC asymmetric structure and the asymmetric convection system.     

湿陷性黄土地区客运专线路基沉降观测分析

郑西客运专线是我国第一条黄土地区时速300～350 km/h铺设无砟轨道的高速铁路,路基沉降控制是保证高速铁路运营安全的重要因素。通过郑西客运专线现场沉降观测资料的分析发现,黄土地基在较小沉降控制要求的情况下具有完成时间较短、沉降趋势符合双曲线分析法、埋设于路基中部的沉降板比埋设于路肩的观测桩沉降曲线拟合性好、路堑地段也有较小的沉降发生等特点,这些结果对进行高速铁路客运专线路基沉降观测设计很有借鉴价值。     

秦岭太白山新生代隆升冷却历史的磷灰石裂变径迹分析

伸展正断层下盘的冷却历史记录了主要伸展变形的时间及幅度.太白山位于秦岭北缘,作为伸展正断层的下盘,其新生代伸展隆升冷却历史有助于我们更好地理解渭河盆地的伸展变形时间及其幅度.本文利用磷灰石裂变径迹分析方法对太白山的冷却历史进行了研究.来自太白山总计17个样品的磷灰石裂变径迹数据及热历史模拟揭示出山体经历了始于约48 Ma的小幅度快速抬升冷却阶段,和始于约9.6 Ma的大幅度快速抬升冷却阶段;分别对应平行于秦岭北缘山脉的两阶段伸展变形.始于约48 Ma的伸展变形可能是印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞作用在大陆内部的远场响应,而始于约9.6 Ma的快速伸展变形可能与青藏高原在该时期快速隆升和对外扩展有关.