1999—2003年西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报的误差分析

应用1999—2003年中国中央气象台 (CMO)、日本气象厅 (JMA) 以及美国联合台风警报中心 (JTWC) 发布的西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报资料, 从总误差、逐年误差趋势、不同海区误差、不同路径趋势误差、不同强度趋势误差等5个方面对各预报中心的路径及强度预报结果进行分析, 结果表明:5年总的平均误差以JTWC的路径预报误差最小, 而JMA的强度预报较准确; 在不同海域, 各预报中心的路径预报能力各有优势, 但在热带气旋的强度预报方面, JMA的方法在各海区都较稳定; 对不同路径趋势热带气旋的预报方面, 除了南海转向热带气旋的路径预报比JMA和CMO稍差一些之外, JTWC的路径预报在大多数情况下都是好于或相当于JMA和CMO; 在不同强度变化趋势热带气旋的预报方面, JTWC在大多数情况下都优于其他中心。上述结果帮助业务和科技人员全面了解各预报中心的预报能力优劣, 也为今后改进我国的热带气旋预报提供有益的参考。     

一次过冷层状云催化云迹微物理特征的卫星遥感分析

利用卫星反演技术,通过卫星观测到的一次人工增雨催化作业后形成的云迹线个例,分析了云迹线与其周围云的光谱特征、亮温、亮温差、云顶粒子有效半径等云微物理特征,比较了它们之间的差异,揭示了这次过冷层状云催化的微物理效应。云迹实际上是持续时间超过80 min、宽和深分别约为14 km和1.5 km的云谷。云迹周围的云顶粒子有效半径为10—15μm,而云沟内的粒子在15—24μm变化。周围云体由过冷滴组成,中间可能夹杂了一些低浓度的冰粒子,云沟内云的主要成分是冰。和周围未被催化的云相比,0.6μm通道的光谱反射率,在云沟处有明显的增加,而3.7μm通道反射率在云沟内是降低的,尽管其绝对变化幅度不大,但其相对变化幅度较大。随着播云时间的增加,云沟深度、宽度逐渐增加,云沟内和周围云体的温差逐渐增加,对通道4和5而言,在最早催化部位,最大分别达到4.2℃和3.9℃,4和5通道之间云沟内的亮温差也是随冰晶化时间的增加而增加,最大为1.4℃,而云沟周围云为0.2—0.4℃。云沟的形成、云沟内云顶温度的增加和4,5通道之间亮温差的增加,都足以说明被播云体变薄,其原因是由于云顶降水使得云内的水流失,云顶下降。云顶冰晶化、冰粒子增长成降水造成云顶下沉,是云沟形成的主要原因。对于本次播云作业,晶化作用在播云22 min后逐渐显现。在播云后38—63 min,有新的水云在云沟的中间部位生成,可能是由于冻结潜热释放引起的上升运动所致。而新生水云在形成较早的云迹中没有出现,这些较早形成的云迹在80多分钟的整个观测期间持续扩散。最终,在周围云从外向云沟内的扩散过程中,云沟开始消散。     

APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.     

塔里木北缘前寒武基底隆升剥露史：来自磷灰石裂变径迹的证据

库鲁克塔格隆起位于塔里木盆地北缘,广泛出露前寒武基底岩石。辛格尔村附近出露的太古宙杂岩,包括灰色片麻岩、角闪岩、片岩、混合岩和大理岩。新元古代地层出露在库鲁克塔格隆起西部的兴地、西山口、辛格尔和杀马山附近,不整合在古元古代和中元古代的片麻岩、角闪岩和片岩之上,并被早古生代的地层不整合。因此,该地区是了解塔里木盆地前寒武基底热演化史的理想地区。本研究的目的是为了探索:①塔里木基底岩石最初于何时剥露于地表?②塔里木基底剥露以后是否经历过再次埋藏和剥露?③塔里木基底岩石构造热演化过程对大陆边缘不同构造事件的响应。为了获取塔里木北缘剥露史和冷却过程信息,我们开展了裂变经迹的研究。含磷灰石的样品采自库鲁克塔格隆起的兴地断裂两侧。样品池年龄介于146.0±13.4和67.6±6.7Ma 之间,平均经迹长度介于.11.79±0.14和13.89±0.27μm之间。根据样品年龄和样品所处的构造位置,样品可以分为3组。A 组样品包括 F2、F3、F4、F5和 F8,裂变经迹表观年龄约100～110Ma,通常位于未遭断层变形的地区。B 组样品包括 F7、F9和 F10,裂变经迹表观年龄小于80Ma,构造上位于断层上盘并靠近断层。C 组样品 F11具有最大的裂变经迹表观年龄146.0±13.4Ma。热模拟表明,库鲁克塔格地区的隆升剥露作用可以划分为四期,分别是早侏罗世晚期(180Ma)、晚侏罗世—早白垩世(144～118Ma)、晚白垩世早期(94～82Ma)和新生代晚期(约10Ma)。裂变经迹记录的库鲁克塔格多阶段隆升作用,是对亚洲南缘多期地体碰撞增生的响应。     

Constraining the stepwise migration of the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin by apatite fission track thermochronology

Granites sampled from Garzê-Litang thrust, Longmen Shan thrust, Garzê and Litang strike-slip faults in the eastern Tibetan Plateau have been analyzed with apatite fission track thermochronological method in this study. The measured fission track apparent ages, combined with the simulated annealing mod- eling of the thermal history, have been used to reconstruct the thermal evolutionary histories of the samples and interpret the active history of the thrusts and faults in these areas. Thermal history mod- eling shows that earlier tectonic cooling occurred in the Garzê-Litang thrust in Miocene (~20―16 Ma) whereas the later cooling occurred mainly in the Longmen Shan thrust since ~5 Ma. Our study sug- gests that the margin of eastern Tibetan Plateau was extended by stages: through strike-slip faults deformations and related thrusts, the upper crust formed the Garzê-Litang margin in the Miocene epoch and then moved to the Longmen Shan margin since ~5 Ma. During this process, the deformations of different phases in the eastern Tibetan Plateau were absorbed by the thrusts within them and conse- quently the tectonic events of long-distance slip and extrusion up to hundreds of kilometers have not been found.     

Geological analysis and FT dating of the large-scale right-lateral strike-slip movement of the Red River fault zone

Tectonically, the large-scale right-lateral strike-slip movement along the Red River fault zone is char-acterized at its late phase with the southeastward extension and deformation of the Northwestern Yunnan normal fault depression on its northern segment, and the dextral shear displacement on its central-southern segment. Research of the relations between stratum deformation and fault movement on the typical fault segments, such as Jianchuan, southeast Midu, Yuanjiang River, Yuanyang, etc. since the Miocene Epoch shows that there are two times dextral faulting dominated by normal shearing occurring along the Red River fault zone since the Miocene Epoch. The fission track dating (abbrevi-ated to FT dating, the same below) is conducted on apatite samples collected from the above fault segments and relating to these movements. Based on the measured single grain’s age and the con-fined track length, we choose the Laslet annealing model to retrieve the thermal history of the samples, and the results show that the fault zone experienced two times obvious shear displacement, one in 5.5 ± 1.5 MaBP and the other in 2.1± 0.8 MaBP. The central-southern segment sees two intensive uplifts of mountain mass in the Yuanjiang River-Yuanyang region at 3.6―3.8 MaBP and 1.6―2.3 MaBP, which correspond to the above-mentioned two dextral normal displacement events since the late Miocene Epoch.     

9711号台风的移动路径和影响山东的特大暴雨分析

对９７１１号台风的移动路径及其造成的暴雨进行了分析。分析表明,副高外围环流在台风移动过程中有明显的引导作用;台风的移动路径和暴雨落区与正涡度轴线及高能轴线都有较好的对应关系;对流层中层变能场的分布对台风移动路径有明显的预报指示意义。     

“菲特”台风路径和强度预报难点分析

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、NOAA海温资料对其进行分析,结果表明:(1)副高突然加强西进,中低层高压带加强,在台风北侧形成高压坝和强盛偏东气流,是台风路径突然西折的主要原因;(2)"丹娜丝"的活动在一定程度上阻止了副热带高压的南落,有利于副高南侧偏东急流的维持和加强,对"菲特"路径的突然西折起一定作用。敏感性数值试验结果表明"双台风"效应对"菲特"登陆前进一步西折具有决定作用;(3)高低空急流的配置,产生了动力场的耦合作用,加强了台风的对流活动,所释放的潜热可以补偿海温降低的影响,对"菲特"在近海强度维持起到了重要作用;(4)"菲特"的强度和环境风垂直切变的演变规律基本一致,较低的环境风垂直切变是"菲特"在近海强度维持的重要原因。     

三维点云在轨道板快速检测中的应用

针对现有的CRTSⅢ型轨道板检测方法效率低下、设备组装复杂、部分还需人工操作等不足,基于三维点云数据实现了轨道板外形尺寸的高精度快速检测。利用轨道板标准三维模型建立相关检测特征,在完成轨道板三维点云数据相关预处理后,将点云数据精确配准至标准三维模型,利用模型上已建立的特征拟合计算轨道板表面点云数据的检测特征,获得轨道板各检测指标的测量值;计算测量值与标准三维模型设计尺寸之间的偏差,从而实现轨道板外形尺寸的快速检测。实验表明,与常规的检测手段相比,该方法具有检测精度高、速度快、检测结果稳定可靠、检测项目齐全等优点,具有良好的应用前景。     

OBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION OF THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL STORMS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

An objective analysis of tropical cyclone tracks is performed, with which the tracks of 131 tropical storms (TSs) in 1972-2011 are separated into three types that move west-, north- and northwestward, denoted as Types A, B and C, respectively. Type A (21 TSs and 16% of total) has the origin in the southwestern Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a unimodal distribution as its seasonal feature, occurring mainly in autumn; 18 of the 21 TSs (taking up 90%) land mostly on the western Bay coast (west of 85°E); 5% of Type-A TSs attains the wind speed of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s. Type A has little or no effect on Tibet. Type B (74 TSs, 56.6% of the total) has its preferable origin in the central Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a bimodal distribution as its seasonal pattern. This type denotes the travel in the north in spring, with the landfall of 67 of the 74 TSs (accounting for 91%) mainly on the middle coast of the Bay (85° to 95°E), and 19% of the TSs reaching the wind velocity of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s, which exert great effect on Tibet and it is this TS track that gives strong precipitation on its way through this region. Type C (36 TSs, 27.5% of the total) has its main origin in the southern part of the bay, and these TSs are formed largely in autumn, moving in the northwest direction, and 23 of the 36 TSs (64%) land mostly on the western Bay coast, lasting for a longer time, with almost no impact upon Tibet.