A Dynamical Statistical Model for Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone

A dynamical statistical method is applied for operational forecasting of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone “Nargis” of April–May 2008. The method consists of three forecast components, namely (a) analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and maximum potential intensity, (b) track prediction, and (c) 12 hourly intensity prediction for forecasts up to 72 hours. The results of the study showed that GPP could provide necessary predictive signal at early stages of development on the further intensification of the low pressure system into a tropical cyclone. The landfall forecast position errors by different operational numerical models (NWP) showed landfall position errors ranging from 10 km to 150 km and landfall time error ranges from 6 hours early to 6 hours delay. The dynamical statistical model is capable to provide 12 hourly nearly realistic intensity forecasts up to 60 hours of forecast.     

Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology of Granite from the Xiazhuang Uranium Ore Field, South China: Implications for Exhumation History and Ore Preservation

Xiazhuang uranium ore field, located in the southern part of the Nanling Metallogenic Belt, is considered one of the largest granite-related U regions in South China. In this paper, we contribute new apatite fission track data and thermal history modeling to constrain the exhumation history and evaluate preservation potential of the Xiazhuang Uranium ore field. Nine Triassic outcrop granite samples collected from different locations of Xiazhuang Uranium ore field yield AFT ages ranging from 43 to 24 Ma with similar mean confined fission track lengths ranging from 11.8 ± 2.0 to 12.9 ± 1.9 μm and Dpar values between 1.01 and 1.51 μm. The robustness time-temperature reconstructions of samples from the hanging wall of Huangpi fault show that the Xiazhuang Uranium ore field experienced a time of monotonous and slow cooling starting from middle Paleocene to middle Miocene (~60–10 Ma), followed by relatively rapid exhumation in the late Miocene (~10–5 Ma) and nearly thermal stability in the Pliocene–Quaternary (~5–0 Ma). The amount of exhumation after U mineralization since the Middle Paleogene was estimated as ~4.3 ± 1.8 km according to the integrated thermal history model. Previous studies indicate that the ore-forming ages of U deposits in the Xiazhuang ore field are mainly before Middle Paleocene and the mineralization depths are more than 4.4 ± 1.2 km. Therefore, the exhumation history since middle Paleocene plays important roles in the preservation of the Xiazhuang Uranium ore field.     

AIRS资料质量控制对飓风路径模拟的影响试验

对WRFDA模式中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案进行了检验,并以美国Earl飓风为例进行数值试验,研究了质量控制方案对飓风路径模拟的影响。试验结果表明:WRFDA模式中11条质量控制原则对红外高光谱AIRS亮温资料的同化效果影响很大,不论是加入逐条质量控制原则,还是缺席某条质量控制原则,飓风路径的模拟情况都比不上控制试验;而在所有质量控制原则都加入之后,在大部分模拟时段内同化试验中模拟的飓风路径偏差都要小于控制试验,而且同化试验中最大路径偏差也小于控制试验。不同的质量控制原则对观测资料的过滤能力也不一样,其中地表发射率Jacobian分量检测、临边检测、云检测和SST检测等4个质量控制原则剔除卫星资料数量相对较多。本文中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案的对比试验,可以为中国发展红外高光谱卫星系统提供非常有益的借鉴和参考。     

海洋表层温度对台风"蔷薇"路径和强度预测精度的影响

基于中尺度大气模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model),首先对2007年3次船舶辐射通量观测进行模拟,以检验WRF对长波和短波辐射通量的模拟能力,结果表明使用中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统环流模式POM(Princeton Ocean Model)模拟的高时空分辨率的海洋表层温度能够显著改进短波辐射通量的模拟,而对长波辐射通量模拟的改进不明显。然后,将业务化运行的中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统后报的逐时海洋表面温度(SST)作为WRF底边界条件,对2008年15号强台风"蔷薇"(Jangmi)过程进行了数值后报试验。结果表明,与使用NCEP/NCAR的SST试验后报的台风中心位置偏差相比,使用高时空分辨率的SST能够较为显著地改善"蔷薇"的路径模拟,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少11%,尤其在台风减弱阶段,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少37%。台风强度在台风发展的不同阶段对下垫面SST的变化敏感性不同。台风路径附近的海表面温度下降会导致海洋向大气输送的热量减少从而减弱台风强度。     

近60年西北太平洋台风年代际变化特征及成因的初步分析

利用60年台风资料,对西北太平洋台风的频数、路径和强度变化做统计分析。结果表明:西北太平洋的台风活动在20世纪60年代是高峰期,70年代则是低谷期,从20世纪90年代后期开始,台风活动总体处于低谷期;台风路径主要以转向为主,在20世纪60、70年代平均路径比较偏南,而进入21世纪后平均路径比较偏北;强度在20世纪50、60年代总体较强,后25年总体较弱;西北太平洋台风异常偏多时,西北太平洋副高弱且位置偏东,太平洋海温分布呈"拉尼娜"特征;台风异常偏少时,副高强且位置偏西,太平洋海温分布呈"厄尔尼诺"特征。     

董家口港溢油漂移数值模拟

采用油粒子模式,以原油为溢油油种,在模拟潮流的基础上分别预测了董家口30万t码头航道溢油油膜在静风、西北风和不利风向3种情况下的油膜动态漂移过程。对溢油油膜漂移路径及扫海范围的模拟,可为码头溢油应急计划的制定提供一定的导向作用。     

Dating of altered mafic intrusions by applying a zircon fission track thermochronometer to baked country rock,and implications for the timing of volcanic activity during the opening of the Japan Sea

Once a mafic intrusive rock has become altered, it is generally difficult to obtain a reliable intrusion age using conventional isotopic dating methods. To overcome this problem, this study used zircon fission track (ZFT) thermochronometry to determine the timing of crystallization of altered mafic intrusions. ZFT dating was carried out on samples of baked granite country rock adjacent to dolerite dikes (5–10 m thick) in the Takato area of central Japan. Three granite samples collected within 8 mm of a dike contact yielded consistent ZFT ages of 17–16 Ma, with confined track lengths indicative of the complete annealing of pre‐existing tracks by reheating due to dike intrusion. An older ZFT age was obtained for one granite sample collected within 20 mm of the contact, but confined track length measurements indicate that this is an incompletely reset age that lies between the ZFT age of the unbaked granitic country rocks (ca. 55 Ma) and the emplacement age of the dike. Petrographic examinations suggest that post‐intrusion hydrothermal activity did not influence the ZFT ages. We conclude that the 17–16 Ma ZFT age represents the emplacement age of the dikes. Our results show that ZFT dating of baked country rock is an effective tool for dating altered mafic intrusions, for which other dating techniques are not applicable. In the eastern part of Southwest Japan, dispersed volcanic activity occurred in the late Early to early Middle Miocene (18–15 Ma), and the volcanic belt extended into the forearc. This pulse of activity was possibly related to the injection of asthenospheric material into the trench‐side mantle wedge beneath the Japan arc. We also present young apatite fission track ages (ca. 4 Ma) that may reflect a Middle Miocene or later thermal event associated with local magmatic activity near the Takato area.     

Detrital apatite fission track analyses of the Subei basin: implications for basin-range structure of the northern Tibetan Plateau

The northern Tibetan Plateau has evolved a unique basin-range structure characterized by alternating elongated mountain ranges and basins over a history of multiple tectonic and fault activities. The Subei basin recorded evolution of this basin-range structure. In this study, detailed detrital apatite fission track (AFT) thermochronological studies in conjunction with previously documented data reveal provenance of the Subei basin, important information about the Indo-Eurasia collision, and two Miocene uplift and exhumation events of the northern Tibetan Plateau. Detrital AFT analyses combined with sedimentary evidences demonstrate that the Danghenanshan Mountains is the major provenance of the Subei basin. In addition, very old age peaks indicate that part sediments in the Subei basin are recycling sediments. Age peak populations of 70–44 Ma and 61–45 Ma from the lower and upper Baiyanghe formations record the tectono-thermal response to the Indo-Eurasia collision. Combined detrital AFT thermochronology, magnetostratigraphy and petrography results demonstrate the middle Miocene uplift and exhumation event initiated 14–12 Ma in the Subei basin, which may resulted from the Miocene east-west extension of the Tibetan Plateau. Another stronger uplift and exhumation event occurred in the late Miocene resulted from strengthened tectonic movement and climate. A much younger AFT grain age, breccia of diluvial facies and boulders of root fan subfacies record the late Miocene unroofing in the Danghenanshan Mountains.     

Denudation history of the Southeastern Highlands of Australia

The low-relief summit plateaus (high plains) of the Southeastern Highlands are remnants of a widespread peneplain that was initially uplifted in the mid-Cretaceous and reached its current elevation in the Miocene–Pliocene. There are two mutually exclusive scenarios for the origin of the high plains: an uplifted peneplain originally formed by long-term denudation through the Mesozoic and late Paleozoic, contrasting with creation by ～1.5 km of erosion following the mid-Cretaceous uplift (based on fission track data). The hypothesis of a Mesozoic peneplain is consistent with the low relief of the high plains, the ca 200 Ma available to form the peneplain, and the pre-late Mesozoic oxygen-isotope composition of secondary kaolinites in weathering profiles on the high plains. If the ca 30 Ma cooling event recorded by the fission track data is due to ～1.5 km of denudation, then the high plains peneplain formed in the Late Cretaceous–early Paleogene, close to sea-level, and was uplifted in the early Paleogene, because evidence from basalts and fossil floras shows that the high plains surface was moderately elevated in the Eocene. This scenario is difficult to reconcile with the long-term erosion necessary to form such an extensive peneplain, the lack of sedimentary evidence for early Paleogene uplift, and the relatively small reduction in elevation (～250 m) that would have resulted from ～1.5 km of erosion (because the crust in this area is in isostatic equilibrium). Furthermore, extensive Cretaceous–early Paleogene denudation should have removed the pre-late Mesozoic secondary kaolinites present in weathering profiles in the highlands. There is no evidence that the Mesozoic peneplain was buried by kilometres of sediment and then exhumed in the Cretaceous–early Paleogene. I therefore conclude that the high plains of the Southeastern Highlands are the remnants of a Mesozoic peneplain uplifted in the mid-Cretaceous and again in the Miocene–Pliocene.     

国产旋转导向及随钻测井系统在渤海某油田的应用

旋转导向和随钻测井系统可在精确、高效控制井眼轨迹和快速识别地层性质的同时大幅度提高作业效率,降低作业成本。尤其在海上油气开发过程中具有较好的提效效果,但是长期以来该领域均被国外石油公司垄断且租赁价格高昂。中海油国产化研制的Welleader旋转导向系统、Drilog随钻测井系统经过多次试验达到了入井应用要求,在渤海某平台调整井钻井作业中进行了应用,结果表明该套系统旋转导向系统轨迹控制满足定向井轨迹要求、测斜数据准确、测井质量符合标准要求,能够实现钻井过程中的轨迹控制和测井要求。